Morphettville will conclude it’s Group l Carnival this Saturday with the best it has to offer, The Goodwood (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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5 Kinetic Jewel (Bet Now: $4.00) is an above average filly for Phillip Stokes that resumes and I think she can resume a winner. She kicked off her career in the Spring and was strong each time she stepped out, winning a couple of races and showing good promise. Looks to have trialled up really well leading in, seemingly matured, and for mine, she is the one with the most upside/progression.
Danger
2 Vintage Star (Bet Now: $3.50) resumes for Team Jolly and is dangerous I feel. His last run came here on Boxing Day when near the speed and fought on well enough but in the end, just looked a tired horse behind Vexatious Dancer. Trialled up really well leading in and Toeroek chooses to ride him.
Long Shot
10 Regal Dancer (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Sir Prancealot gelding that resumes for Team Jolly. This guy is first up, having not raced since Boxing Day over this track/distance when back last in the small field and failed to make up any real headway behind Vexatious Dancer. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and stable usually have them quite forward for their return, so watch the market.
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10 Enciphering (Bet Now: $11.00) for me. Mick Huxtable trained three year old that ran over this track/distance last Saturday where he got a fair way out of his ground but loved the way he picked up late and kept finding the line when second to Sir Kingsford. If he can use the inside gate to advantage and settle closer, he’ll take holding out.
Danger
11 Holmes (Bet Now: $8.50) is knocking on the door. This guy ran over 2000m here last Saturday where I thought he was given every chance by Lane and was there to put the race to bed but couldn’t quite get there when second to Tullaghan. Back in trip looks fine, he gets B Shinn…likeable.
Long Shot
14 Bolted In (Bet Now: $21.00) is racing honestly without winning but I do think a rise to 1800m suits. He ran over 1500m at Gawler on Anzac Day where he got off the speed and kept finding the line but was never really threatening behind Komachi. Racing like the rise to 1800m will be ideal and this isn’t a deep race. Leading contender I’d suggest.
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5 Flyer (Bet Now: $4.20) for me. Jason Warren trains this filly, who ran two weeks ago over this track/distance where she was dragged back from the wide gate and while she was never a threat, I really liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind Growing Empire. If she can use the inside gate and settle closer, she’ll take a power of beating.
Danger
3 Karavas (Bet Now: $4.80) can run an improved race, ideally with a sit. I think they rode her too warm a fortnight back in the Breeders Stakes but even allowing for that, i don’t think she was beating Growing Empire, who made an absolute mess of them and was impressive the way he put them away. The depth here isn’t as deep and with a more patient steer, she can run a much improved race.
Long Shot
2 Colmar (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Daniel/Stanbury trained juvenile that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Jan 20 when placing at Gawler behind Kuroyanagi, who ran so well during the Blue Diamond Series, so that form clearly reads well for a race like this and first up at 1200m, at this level, to me signals intent.
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5 Gotta Go Guru (Bet Now: $8.00) wouldn’t have disgraced herself in the Oaks but this should be a nice consolation. She is progressive and heading in the right direction for Andrew Gluyas, winning her past two, winning the maiden at Balaklava two back over 2200m before going to 2050m at Strathalbyn where she gave them a start and a beating, winning by an absolute space. She’ll eat up 2500m and this isn’t a deep race.
Danger
12 Sun Gift (Bet Now: $10.00) is still a maiden after five runs but that doesn’t truly indicate her ability. I think she has an engine under the hood. She has placed her past two over 2000m at Cranbourne, the latest being last Friday when a closing second, trying hard but just couldn’t quite get there. The way she finds the line, 2500m suits and commands respect.
Long Shot
10 Quadratic (Bet Now: $41.00) has found a win on the board and she can go on with it. Team Hayes trained filly that was knocking on the door to break the maiden tag and it came at Bendigo last time out over 2400m, sitting on speed throughout and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found and just chipped away to score. She has that 2400m run and win under the belt, which should hold her in good stead.
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Not sure what upside there is with 4 Sea What I See (Bet Now: $2.05) but really, I think she only has to hold her form and she wins again. 6/6 for Danny O’Brien this time in, the latest win being a romp at Mornington three weeks ago where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, winning quite comfortably. On paper, potentially a good test, but she is back to Mares grade, 2000m no issue and she’s very well in at the weights.
Danger
1 Seonee (Bet Now: $4.20) is a slight query at the 2000m but she is such a genuine mare for Patrick Payne and did win the key lead up, which was the Queen Of The South a fortnight back where she got the A1 sit in transit behind the speed, a slow speed, before angling clear at the right stage and she made a mess of them late to win quite impressively. If the 2000m is no issue, she is around the mark again.
Long Shot
5 Silent Surrente (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to have returned in really good order and should appreciate a rise to 2000m. She was a real eye catcher fresh in the City Of Adelaide before going to the Queen Of The South where she got off the slow speed and just lacked the gears to dash late but she stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Seonee. Up to 2000m and hard fit, she appeals.
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1 Fashion Shoot (Bet Now: $18.00) should prove extremely hard to beat here. Whether she has eyes on a race like the Tatts Tiara, not sure, but she is a Kiwi that has class and runs on the board. She ran a few weeks ago in the Hareeba at Mornington and was an eye catcher late from near last on the turn, beaten a few lengths by Maharba. Back to Mares grade, fitter…I think if she brings her best, she wins.
Danger
17 She’s Bulletproof (Bet Now: $15.00) has steadily got better with racing this prep and off a win, she’s in with a shout. She ran last time out at Caulfield on the Heath track where she got a patient steer from Shinn and took a while to get into her work but once she did, she was impressive and strong late in winning. She’s got timing and is in form.
Long Shot
18 Lovely Lookin (Bet Now: $26.00) commands respect for Andrew Gluyas. This girl ran a fortnight back in the Tobin Bronze. She got a fair way back and was wide throughout but I liked the way she found the line late and stuck on really well in defeat behind Skybird. Better run in transit this time around, she’s going well enough to win.
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Staying at the mile is the only knock stopping me declaring 2 Pounding (Bet Now: $4.00). Moody/Coleman trained galloper. He was very plain in the VOBIS Mile at Caulfield last time but he was very one paced when asked and only really just ground to the line. Think with a more genuine tempo here, and so well in at the weights, I am confident he bounces back.
Danger
6 Chicago Storm (Bet Now: $10.00) has really turned the corner in recent times since they have ridden him warm. He has won his past two, each win seeing him lead throughout. Latest was two weeks back and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure, fought hard and was too good. Harder here, but he’ll give himself every chance.
Long Shot
12 Montign (Bet Now: $91.00) looks a massive price here. Stuart Padman trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since Feb 2 when midfield in the Strathalbyn Cup after getting a mile back in the run. He will likely get back in the run but if the breaks go his way, he is going well enough to launch late.
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9 Johnny Rocker (Bet Now: $8.50) is a big improver here on firmer footing. Nick Ryan trained galloper that pushed Imperatriz all the way in the William Reid before going to the TJ Smith Stakes where he was kept safe in betting but found a bog track and couldn’t really pick his feet up at WFA. Back to this set up, dry track, good speed in front…he is dangerous, big time.
Danger
2 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $4.20) is a star mare and what is going to be her final run for Simon Miller, you’d love to see her go out on top and win a big one. She resumed at Ascot in The Quokka where I thought she was given a 12/10 by Lane and on the turn, it looked no betting as she was tracking the speed, but she couldn’t quite get there when second to Overpass. Fast run 1200m, can see her sitting back off the speed and launching at them late.
Long Shot
8 Arkansaw Kid (Bet Now: $41.00) is a knockout hope I feel. Team Hayes trained three year old that comes through the Tobin Bronze from two weeks back…where I thought Zahra slaughtered him. He got into a decent spot, three/four wide with cover, but for some reason, Zahra elected to ride inside and not come out, which meant the horse was in restricted room and couldn’t let down properly. If he gets room to move this time around, I think he’s going well enough to be a threat.
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3 Spin The Reward (Bet Now: $8.50) is flying for Peter Hardacre. He got too far back and was nearer the inside when racing two weeks ago here. He actually did a really good job to keep on finding the line like he did in defeat behind Aviatress. That was at 1100m so rising back up to 1200m, and hopefully with room to improve, he’ll take holding out.
Danger
15 Wally West (Bet Now: $11.00) has an engine under the hood but he has a few loose screws upstairs. He resumed a fortnight back over 1100m here where he jumped beautifully and was able to land on speed quite comfortably, leading and getting control. He gave a decent sight but just couldn’t quite see it through behind Aviatress. Fitter and up in trip, more patient ride, he can bounce back.
Long Shot
1 Brave Star (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Oct 7 at Murray Bridge when wide no cover, doing work and just felt the pinch late behind Whiskey N Women. He is a horse who usually runs well fresh and despite a tricky gate, he commands respect.
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Leg Three: 2, 8, 9, 16
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 15, 16
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