The wild sports calendar of 2024 is rolling on as the first week of May is officially here. That means it’s time for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, so grab a mint julep and get ready to watch some of the world’s best racehorses compete in “The Run for the Roses.”
A year after the 2023 Kentucky Derby was marred by scratches and horse deaths at Churchill Downs, racing officials hope this year’s race will run smoother. The event is currently on track to have a 20-horse field, but once again, none of legendary trainer Bob Baffert’s horses will be in the field in wake of the Medina Spirit scandal of 2021.
Nonetheless, the huge field will make it difficult for even the most seasoned bettors to break down. A few colts always stand out among the crowd, but it can be hard to predict which horses have the stamina and wherewithal to run effectively throughout the 1 1/4-mile-long race.
Bettors will be looking to back horses with good top speed with the stamina and closing burst needed to finish the race strong. The winner seems unlikely to be a true pace-setter, but you never know what you’re going to get in a wide-open field such as this.
Who should be on your card during the 2024 Kentucky Derby? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets to win this year’s run for the roses.
MORE: Breaking down the full draw for the 2024 Kentucky Derby
Fierceness (+250) opened as the favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. He will run out of the No. 17 gates in the hopes of becoming the first colt to win from that post position in the 94 years since the race implemented a starting gate.
Only two other horses — Sierra Leone (+300) and Catching Freedom (+800) — carry odds better than 10-1 to win the race. They are running from the No. 2 and No. 4 gates respectively, giving each a shorter path to victory than Fierceness.
Three horses in the field have odds for 50-1 or longer to win the race. They are West Saratoga (+5000), Grand Mo the First (+5000) and Society Man (+5000).
Below are the full opening odds and starting gates for the Kentucky Derby, which came down courtesy of Churchill Downs after the weekend’s post-position draw.
| Post Position | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Dornoch | +2000 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | +300 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | +2000 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | +800 |
| 5 | Catalytic | +3000 |
| 6 | Just Steel | +2000 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | +2000 |
| 8 | Just a Touch | +1000 |
| 9 | Encino | +2000 |
| 10 | T O Password | +3000 |
| 11 | Forever Young | +1000 |
| 12 | Track Phantom | +2000 |
| 13 | West Saratoga | +5000 |
| 14 | Endlessly | +3000 |
| 15 | Domestic Product | +3000 |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | +5000 |
| 17 | Fierceness | +250 |
| 18 | Stronghold | +2000 |
| 19 | Resilience | +2000 |
| 20 | Society Man | +5000 |
The Kentucky Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race, so stamina is the most important trait to identify in a winning horse. It’s better not to trust a pace-setter in this environment, as they tend to start the race well but fade down the stretch since the Run for the Roses is longer than the average race.
That makes it better to target stalking horses that hang back early and can finish with the burst and energy needed to win the race. Here’s a look at some of the top horses that check those boxes:
Betting the favorite isn’t always appealing in a sport like horse racing, but Fierceness has all the tools needed to win the derby.
Fierceness is trained by the legendary Todd Pletcher, who has sent a record 64 horses to the derby. The colt has won three of his five career starts and will be ridden by John Velasquez, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times and should give Fierceness a quality ride Saturday.
Fierceness doesn’t fit the mold of a typical derby winner, as he thrives near the front of the pack as a pace-setter. He has the speed needed to outrun his competitors — his average wins have been by an average of 10-plus lengths — but will need to showcase the stamina needed to win.
Velasquez’s experience should help Fierceness manage the race. He will position the horse near the front of the pack and keep space to the outside thanks to the duo’s draw of the No. 17 gate. That will give Fierceness the necessary space to make a move and speed through the final turn, so he’s worth a shot even at shorter odds.
For those preferring a true closer in the race, Catching Freedom might be the best choice for your card. The colt has 8-1 odds and is ridden by jockey Flavian Prat, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2019 after Maximum Security’s disqualification. That alone will make him a top-three threat, as Prat has logged top-three finishes in five of his previous six Kentucky Derby stats.
Catching Freedom isn’t quite as fast as the other favorites, but his closing burst has allowed him to win three of his five career starts. That includes a last-to-first showing in the Louisiana Derby on March 30, so he can make up ground even though he isn’t a pace-setter.
That closing burst could come in handy if some of the top contenders fade down the stretch of the longer race. Prat’s experience — along with that of the horse’s trainer, Brad Cox — should allow the team to enter the race with a good plan and challenge for a win, place or show in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Those looking for real value among the Kentucky Derby horses can look no further than Just Steel. The colt has 20-1 odds to win the race but has a vast array of experience, having made 11 starts during his career and winning two of them.
Just Steel was sired by Justify, who won the Triple Crown in 2018, and is coming off an impressive showing at the Arkansas Derby. He lost that race to Muth — a Bob Baffert-trained horse that is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby — by just two lengths but finished 4 1/2 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Mystik Dan.
Just Steel’s pedigree comes with a nice combination of speed and stamina that could make him a quality back as a potential top-three finisher. He may not ultimately outrace Fierceness, but there’s reason to believe that he and jockey Keith Asmussen could set themselves up for a nice stretch run.
Domestic Product is different than Just Steel in that the 30-1 longshot is one of the slower-measured horses in the field, but he only has five starts of experience. In those starts, he has logged two wins and a second-place finish, so he may just be tapping into his potential.
Irad Ortiz Jr. is set to ride Domestic Product and comes with plenty of experience having won the Eclipse Award, given annually to the best jockey, four times. Ortiz hasn’t yet won the Kentucky Derby, but he has the experience needed to lead the colt to a solid showing.
Thus, if Domestic Product can run a bit faster than most expect, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the mix near the race’s end. His stalking style may keep him back in the beginning but he should gradually move up the leaderboard throughout the race if all goes well.
The best post position in horse racing typically varies by race and the type of horse running from each gate.
Horses that like more space prefer to be in the higher-numbered posts. That allows them to load into the starting gate later before the race — an advantage for skittish horses who don’t like being in the enclosed space — while also allowing them more space to the outside in which to execute maneuvers during the race.
That said, the shortest path to victory comes on the inner posts. Getting the No. 1 gate, also known as the rail, can be an advantage from a distance perspective. However, if a claustrophobic horse draws that honor, it can be problematic; they have to wait longer in the gate before starting the race and will be bunched up in a tightly packed group of horses as they jockey for positioning along the rail.
Horses that don’t like being in those tight, enclosed spaces can try to stay from the pack. Sometimes, that involves trying to get to the front of it, which might give the horse an early advantage. More often, those horses pull up a bit and fall behind while seeking space, which puts them at a disadvantage in the race.
The Kentucky Derby has seen a wide distribution of winners from each post since the starting gate was implemented in 1930. The only gate with double-digit wins is the No. 5 gate, which has seen 10 during its history. The No. 10 gate has accounted for nine victories over that same period.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, came from the No. 8 gate. That marked the first win from that gate since Mine That Bird’s surprise victory at the 2009 Run for the Roses.
Here is the complete list of Kentucky Derby winners at each post position since the starting gate was implemented in 1930:
| Post position | Kentucky Derby winners |
|---|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 |
| 12 | 3 |
| 13 | 5 |
| 14 | 2 |
| 15 | 6 |
| 16 | 4 |
| 17 | 0 |
| 18 | 2 |
| 19 | 1 |
| 20 | 2 |
The Kentucky Derby first implemented a starting gate in 1930. Since then, each of the 20 pole positions has produced a winning horse — save for the No. 17 slot.
Since 2000, 11 of the winning horses have run from Gates 5 to 10. Two posts have produced four winners over that time: Gates 5 and 15.
Below is a list of all the winners at each gate since 1930.
