The NFL had a dozen teams finish with double-digit wins during the 2023 season. All of made the playoffs in either the AFC or NFC, making room for only two 9-8 teams.
There’s a good chance several of those teams will stumble in 2024. Both the AFC and NFC had three new playoff team last season, good for a 43% turnover (6 of 14).
The Chargers took the biggest fall in the AFC, going from a 10-7 wild-card team behind the Chiefs in the West to 5-12, dropping to last place in the division. In the NFC, the Vikings went from 13-4 North winners to missing the playoffs at 7-10.
What 2023 playoff teams are positioned to disappoint and headed for a downfall in 2024? Here comes the breakdown:
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The Cowboys have a tricky schedule beyond NFC East play, including facing the a strong AFC North and getting fellow first-place teams in the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Texans and Buccaneers. Dallas seems bound to slide behind the Eagles as a second-place wild-card team again — if they can make the playoffs.
Dallas had a rough cap-strapped offseason of limited improvement, losing key personnel and coaching staff, especially on defense. Overall, the Cowboys have been a playoff disappointment, but they’ve been counted on to come through in the regular season. They might not have enough reliable pieces around Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons to avoid falling to 9-8.
The Browns, who host the Cowboys in Week 1, have the most difficult schedule in 2024 based on their opponents’ winning percentages from last season (158-131, .547). Cleveland must deal with six games in brutal AFC North play, while also facing Dallas, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Miami.
Getting to double-digit wins vs. that slate seems impossible. They are more likely to regress to 8-9 and 7-10 and continue the inconsistent tenure of Kevin Stefanski. The Browns rode their defense too much in 2024, and there are concerns for their offense with Deshaun Watson still not being a sure thing as their franchise QB.
The Dolphins got a break last season after the Jets fell short of expectations. Miami also faded last December, leading to their quick playoff exit vs. the Chiefs.
The offense remains balanced and explosive around Tua Tagovailoa, but the defense is undergoing some key schematic and personnel transition. The Bills and Jets are better teams on the defensive side of the ball and are armed with dangerous quarterbacks of their own on offense.
Miami has to deal with Buffalo and New York twice each in the division with San Francisco, Green Bay, Houston and Cleveland also on the schedule. The AFC field has too many wild-card contenders to think there won’t be major turnover.
The Rams had a successful season with low expectations, as Sean McVay pulled one of his best coaching jobs. The offense found a new groove with young stars Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, and the line overachieved. The defense also took advantage of youthful energy to boost venerable Aaron Donald.
Donald, however, retired, and McVay lost more of his coaching staff, with defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and offensive assistant Zac Robinson going to the Falcons. The schedule is tricky early, with games against the Lions, 49ers and Packers before a Week 5 bye. Getting the entire NFC West, NFC North and AFC East is tough enough and the Rams also host the Eagles. The Rams are set up to be a ripe regression team after their mild surprise in 2023.
The Packers also weren’t expected to be a wild-card playoff team after the QB transition to Jordan Love last season. They also have a strong schedule, with their 2024 opponents combining to finish 152-137 (.527) in 2023, tied for fourth-most difficult with the Texans.
Navigating the NFC North, where the Lions rule and the Bears and Vikings figure to be improved with rookie QBs, remains a challenge. The Eagles, Rams, Texans, 49ers and Dolphins are part of the interdivision slate.
There is plenty of crossover with these five teams and that will create some attrition in their competitive results. The Packers have high hopes with Jordan Love, but they are just as likely to go 10-7 as they are 6-11.
