NFL Week 15 picks: Consider Lions, Chiefs and Bengals on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes explains why he likes the Lions, Chiefs and Bengals in Week 15.
The holiday season is in full swing, and the USA TODAY Sports staff is in the spirit of giving. They are back to deliver you the best NFL bets of Week 15 in one place. Last week, the team went 2-3, with Saquon Barkley and Cade Otton coming through. However, the Bears disappointed, Alvin Kamara was vultured out of a touchdown and a struggling Falcons offense slowed Bijan Robinson.
The crew is back and ready for redemption and a bounce back this Sunday.
Our experts have provided the best predictions for this weekend’s slate of games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props, and anytime touchdowns. Here are our best NFL bets for Sunday games in Week 15 with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Odds as of Thursday.
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: The pressure is on picking first this week. I have to set the tone for the rest of the guys, so I’ll roll with what I believe is my safest pick.
I like backing Miami in this spot. Houston’s defense is solid and generates a lot of pressure, but it is prone to giving up big passing plays. In the last three weeks alone, they have given up plays of 41-plus yards through the air to Cooper Rush, Will Levis and Mac Jones. Without Azeez Al-Shaair around to organize things, they may struggle to contain the Dolphins’ explosive passing attack.
I’d have no qualms about going with Tua Tagovailoa‘s over passing yards – he’s averaging about 325 yards per game in his last four outings – or expecting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to exceed their receiving yardage totals. The best way to bet this game is to back the Dolphins as an underdog. They’re playing some of their best football right now and will be desperate to beat a Texans team that has been lackluster over its 2-3 stretch before the bye.
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: If not for what feels like a titanic Bills-Lions tilt on Sunday afternoon, this would be the game of the week. The NFL’s Pennsylvania teams meet at Lincoln Financial Field with a combined record of 21-5 and have recently played like two of the best defenses in the league.
Philadelphia’s won nine games in a row on the strength of their running game; Pittsburgh boasts the No. 4 rush defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh leads the league in takeaways entering Week 15; Philadelphia is tied for sixth in fewest turnovers committed. The Steelers will likely be without George Pickens, their biggest threat in the passing game, against the No. 2 pass defense in the league.
Nine of Pittsburgh’s 13 games this season have been one-score affairs. The Steelers are 6-3 in those matchups. I’m backing the Eagles to win at home in this one, but Pittsburgh’s track record this season is too good for this line. This has all the makings of a 21-17 kind of contest.
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: After my successful pick of backing Saquon Barkley last week, this is my chance to go 2-0. One of the draws of sports betting is taking snoozer games like this one – with two sub-.500 teams duking it out for no reason besides pride – and turning it into something with stakes.
I’m laying the points for the Bengals this week, partly because they have positive momentum entering a game for just the fifth time this season. Cincinnati took down the Cowboys on the road for its fifth win in what has been a rough year.
Entering Week 15, they’re the sixth-best scoring offense in the NFL. In addition, the Bengals won by seven points or more in all five of their victories this year. Simply put, Cincinnati has habitually beaten up bad defenses.
Across the field are the Titans, a team that, well, has a bad defense. Tennessee’s scoring defense only ranks better than four teams. Three of them – the Panthers, the Cowboys and the Raiders – are teams the Bengals have defeated. The fourth is Cincinnati itself. The Browns, the team with a scoring offense ranked one spot above the Titans, are another team the Bengals have defeated.
So, expect the Bengals to score a lot of points. Even with their poor defensive play this season, they should be able to hold the Titans, a team with the third-worst scoring offense in the league, relatively in check.
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: I said last week that instead of talking trash, I’d let my pick do the talking. Wow, did it have a lot to say? None of it was good. Bijan Robinson has us in debt already as the Falcons’ offense decided to run him 22 times and give him the fewest targets since Week 3. However, the past is the past, and we’re turning the page to Bryce Young.
The 2023 top pick in the NFL draft has stepped his game up, keeping it close against the likes of the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Eagles in recent weeks. As you can read in our underdog picks of the week, that means nothing for the outcome but could mean everything for our prop. The Cowboys allow the second-most rushing yards per game (31.92) to opposing quarterbacks this season. Quarterbacks are over this line in 8-of-13 in 2024, with the exceptions being Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow. Outside of Jones, none of them will be confused with track stars anytime soon.
While Young isn’t known to be a scrambler, he is quietly over this line in four straight since taking over as a starter six games ago. Dallas is blitzing 30.3% of the time, sixth-most in the league. With pressure coming, running lanes should open for Young to take advantage. Hopefully the second-year quarterback can save Christmas after Ebenezer Robinson let us down in Week 14.
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: Those are four interesting looks this week. Let’s hope the picks against the spread work out better than last week. Slick Nick and I will hold it down in the player prop department this week. It’s strictly business again after we cashed in on Cade Otton last Sunday. Some of you may have been upset that last week’s pick wasn’t an anytime touchdown, so I’m bringing it back as the resident anytime touchdown guy to give you some variety week-to-week.
The Commanders head to Nola this Sunday after their bye and should be well rested. Washington has the fourth-highest implied team total on Sunday’s slate behind the Ravens, Lions, Bills and Cardinals. Veteran back Austin Ekeler is on injured reserve after suffering a concussion, so Robinson Jr. will dominate the workload on the extra rest. He has a juicy matchup with the Saints, who rank 31st in defensive rush DVOA.
New Orleans has allowed the most yards per carry (5.0) this season. Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara have not practiced this week. Jake Haener will likely get the start if Carr can’t go after suffering a fractured hand last Sunday. If Carr does indeed miss, we can expect Washington to have multiple scoring opportunities. Robinson Jr. has scored in seven of his nine healthy games this season and the Saints have allowed a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns since Week 3. Eight of the last nine starting running backs facing the Saints have found paydirt. While the price for Robinson Jr. to score on Sunday isn’t the most delectable, the juice is worth the squeeze. Ride with Robinson Jr. on Sunday.
