NFL Divisional Round picks: Why you should consider Texans, Lions, and Bills
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets for the NFL’s Divisional Round weekend.
Lorenzo’s Locks
The NFL playoffs continue this weekend and the divisional round is about to kick off. The USA TODAY Sports staff is back at the table breaking down their best NFL bets and predictions.
The guys delivered winning picks down the stretch of the NFL regular season and are looking to get back on track after a challenging wild card weekend.
Four playoff games are scheduled this week, with the action kicking off with two matchups on Saturday, followed by two more on Sunday.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for the playoff games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns.
Here are the best NFL bets for the divisional round with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Odds as of Friday.
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: My NFL wild card weekend picks had a certain “everything I touch dies” vibe akin to the one Timmy Turner’s mom exhibits in The Fairly OddParents episode, “That’s Life!” As such, we’re looking for a big bounce back this week, and Barkley can provide it.
The Rams have made plenty of splash plays as a defense against top passing games, as evidenced by their sack fest against the Minnesota Vikings in their 27-9 wild-card win. However, their run defense has been much more susceptible to allowing big outings. They allowed 130 rushing yards per game during the 2024 NFL season, good for the 11th-most in the league.
Barkley took advantage of the Rams in the Eagles’ regular-season matchup against them. He ran for a career-high 255 yards in that contest, which was good for the ninth-most by a single game in NFL history. Barkley may not quite reach those heights again – and it’s worth noting that a chunk of his yards came on a 72-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter – but he should have the volume and space needed to get half of that total with relative ease.
More daring bettors looking for a better payout could consider backing Barkley to go over 150 yards (+260) in yet another matchup, in which he will be the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense.
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: Like my pick last week, this has less to do with the player than the opponent. Williams had 92 yards from scrimmage (76 rushing, 16 receiving) and a touchdown catch against the Vikings in the wild-card round. It was a good performance, but in a game that was a blowout by halftime.
Green Bay’s offense struggled against Philadelphia last week. Running back Josh Jacobs had 81 yards on the ground, 31 of which came on one Herculean carry. The rest of the night was a slog. Jacobs faced stacked boxes (eight or more defenders in the box) on just 11% of his snaps against the Eagles, his fifth-lowest rate of the season, but had just a 44.4% rushing success rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
This is an Eagles defense that can more than hold its own in run defense without extra defenders in the box. Los Angeles will likely struggle more in the ground game this week than last. When these teams played in Week 12, Williams had 72 yards from scrimmage. I predict something similar for him this week.
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Wild card weekend was wild, and not in a good way. You win and lose some but the sportsbooks should appreciate our donations and give us some favorable spots to turn it around this week. Piggybacking on Jacob’s “That’s life” theme, we’re channeling our inner Frank Sinatra as we change tunes and get back on top, hopefully before June.
Everyone is focused on the nation’s capital this week. A changing of the guard is set to take place as we turn to a new chapter in American history. That’s enough about the Commanders being a live underdog on Sunday. Either way, Robinson hasn’t been a significant factor in Washington’s passing attack all season. Then came last week. He was targeted a season-high five times, collecting four catches for 22 yards. They aren’t gaudy numbers, but it was honest work and work is what we’re after this time of year.
The season is winding down, pickings are getting slim and we have to get creative. He out-snapped Austin Ekeler, who typically profiles as the receiving option between the two, by a slim margin in the wild-card round, 37-34. However, the playoffs are about players doing whatever it takes to win. There’s no time for defined roles. One catch against a man-heavy Lions’ defense can easily do the trick for Robinson. With one catch in at least nine straight, it’s hard not to like our chances here going over a low total.
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: The Commanders ranked as one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL this year and over the last four weeks of the regular season. During the regular season, Washington allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (137.5) behind only the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints.
Volume stats aren’t always a great indicator of the whole picture, but efficiency metrics also show a similar picture. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, the Commanders allowed the fifth-highest EPA on rushes (0.033) and the 11th-highest success rate on rush plays (44.0%). Those marks don’t get much better looking at the full scope of the regular season, where Washington ranked sixth-worst in rush EPA allowed and ninth-worst on rush success rate.
They’re entering Detroit with a matchup against one of the most dangerous running backs in today’s NFL. Gibbs and the Lions got the wild-card round off thanks to their No. 1 seed and first-round bye. But in the final three games of the regular season, Gibbs ran for over 100 yards in each of them. His most recent game was a 139-yard, three-rushing-touchdown performance against the Minnesota Vikings in a must-win meeting at home.
If the Lions’ status as heavy favorites indicates anything, it’s that they might be running the ball quite a bit on offense, particularly late in the game. That would only give Gibbs more chances to feast on Washington’s weak run defense, so 85 or more yards seems well within reach as David Montgomery works his way back from injury. BetMGM Sportsbook also offers an alternate prop for Gibbs to reach or surpass 100 rushing yards at +150 for bolder bettors.
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: The theme of the divisional round appears to be the running back position. Some people believe running backs don’t matter (RBDM) but you won’t find any of those individuals here. The guys and I aren’t cut from that cloth.
The Chiefs have relied on running back Isiah Pacheco for their back-to-back Super Bowl runs. In the last two postseasons, Pacheco has never finished below double-digit rush attempts in any game. Patrick Mahomes is 13-5 against the spread in his postseason career, and the Chiefs are heavily favored Saturday afternoon at Arrowhead. The game flow is critical when wagering on player props, and it’s challenging to disagree with how the sportsbooks have set this line. I expect Kansas City to have the lead late in the game.
The Chiefs dominated the time of possession in the Week 16 meeting against Houston, controlling the ball for over 34 minutes. Pacheco returned in Week 13, and Andy Reid has been easing him back into the rotation with Kareem Hunt. The 25-year-old from Rutgers finished with 14, 13, and nine rush attempts in three of his last four games since his return.
Temperatures in Kansas City are expected to be frigid and Andy Reid will prepare the team to bash the warm-weather Texans in the trenches. The Chiefs have had two weeks to rest their starters, so expect a heavy workload for Pacheco. He has been a workhorse for the defending champs and he gallops like one too. If the Chiefs ice this game it will be on the legs of the New Jersey native.
