The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
When it comes to fantasy football, rushing quarterbacks remain king. Rushing yards and touchdowns score more fantasy points than passing yards and touchdowns, so QBs who are a threat with their legs will always be preferable to those who aren’t.
Richardson isn’t just a great runner; he’s arguably the best athlete to play quarterback at the NFL level. He combines the size of Cam Newton and the speed of Lamar Jackson, making him a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Richardson was limited to just four games as a rookie, and he only played more than 22 snaps in two of them. He responded with at least 21.92 DraftKings points in both contests, including one game with more than 30.
That doesn’t stand out as fluky. Historically, QBs who average at least 40 rushing yards per game average more than 22 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool). Richardson had at least 40 rushing yards in both of his full starts last season, and he added four rushing touchdowns. He has the potential to be one of the best running quarterbacks in football if he can stay healthy.
This matchup between the Colts and Texans also stands out as one of the best targets in Week 1. The 48.5-point total is the second-highest on the slate, and the Colts are listed as just three-point home underdogs. Richardson’s Opponent Plus/Minus is the fourth-best on the DraftKings main slate, so he checks a lot of boxes at his minimal salary. He’s the clear top option for DraftKings cash games.
Saving money at QB isn’t quite as important on FanDuel as it is on DraftKings, which makes Allen a very strong option there. He’s the clear No. 1 QB in fantasy football drafts this offseason, combining excellent passing production with elite athleticism. Specifically, Allen has evolved into one of the best goal-line hammers in football, punching in a career-best 15 scores in 2023.
Allen did lose two of his top pass-catchers in the offseason – Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis – but he still figures to be one of the most prolific passers in football. That should be especially true vs. the Cardinals. They allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, trailing only the Commanders and Eagles.
Allen and the Bills are implied for 27.25 points in Week 1, which is the top mark on the main slate. Allen has historically crushed with a comparable salary and total, averaging a +4.99 Plus/Minus across 41 contests.
Allen leads all QBs in our median projections by at least three points, and the gap increases to 3.5 in ceiling projections. If you can afford him, he’s an outstanding target to start the year.
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Stroud will be opposing Richardson in Indianapolis, and expectations could not be higher entering his second year. He’s coming off one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, and the team upgraded his pass-catchers by adding Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Add in a healthy Tank Dell and Nico Collins, and the Texans might have the best receiver trio in all of football.
The Colts stand out as a fantastic matchup for Stroud to start the year. They played at the fastest pace in the league last season, averaging just 24.0 seconds per play. The Texans were sixth in that department, so this figures to be one of the fastest-paced games of the week.
The one concern with Stroud is that he’s had pretty drastic splits to start his career. He’s averaged 24.17 DraftKings points at home but just 12.96 on the road. He’s also the rare quarterback who has been better as an underdog (19.59 DKFP) than a favorite (17.53 DKFP). Add it all up, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus on all three occasions as a road favorite. It’s a small sample size, but it’s enough to make him more of a tournament option.
Tagovailoa may not have the hardest job in football, but he typically executes it to perfection. That’s particularly true early in the year: he’s averaged 21.8 DraftKings points in September and October but just 15.36 DraftKings points from November on.
He’ll have a chance to start his year on a high note at home vs. the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t bad – they were 10th in dropback EPA last season – but they still allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. This game also features the highest total of the week (49.0), while the Dolphins’ implied team total trails only the Bills.
Tagovailoa is the ideal GPP quarterback because when he goes off, he tends to go OFF. He only posted a positive Plus/Minus in six starts last season, but he cracked 31 fantasy points twice. Those both occurred in the first three weeks of the year, where he finished as QB4 (Week 1) and QB3 (Week 3). Ultimately, he’s the rare quarterback capable of putting up huge fantasy totals without using his legs.
Burrow makes the cut this week for a variety of reasons, but his salary is one of the biggest. At just $6,500 on DraftKings, he provides the second-best Bargain Rating at the position. Only Richardson has a better mark, and he’s expected to be significantly more popular.
Burrow is coming off a lost season in 2023. He was limited by injuries early, and his season ultimately ended up being cut short. However, don’t forget how good this guy is when healthy.
After starting the year slowly, Burrow put together a stretch of four games with at least 24.88 DraftKings points in five weeks. With Ja’Marr Chase returning to practice on Wednesday, it seems like Burrow and the rest of the Bengals’ offense will be good to go in Week 1.
The Bengals are the largest favorites of the week vs. the Patriots, and Burrow has historically thrived in similar spots. He’s taken the field eight times as a favorite of at least a touchdown, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of +1.76 in those contests. The Patriots’ defense was one of the best in football last year at limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but this is simply too good of a price tag to ignore.
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Lawrence is on the other side of Tagovailoa in the game with the highest total of the week. However, while Tua could garner some attention, Lawrence is likely to fly under the radar.
Lawrence is coming off a down season in 2023. He dealt with lots of injuries, but his adjusted yards per attempt dipped from 7.3 in 2022 to 6.7. After losing Calvin Ridley in the offseason, I’m not expecting DFS players to flock to “Sunshine” vs. the Dolphins.
That said, the matchup is solid. The Dolphins allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Lawrence has the fifth-best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate. He looks particularly strong on FanDuel, where he has the second-best rating in the Koerner Model.
If you’re looking for a dirt-cheap, low-owned QB to stack in Week 1, Jones could be your guy. Jones leaves a lot to be desired as an NFL starting quarterback, but he’s passable for fantasy due to his rushing upside. He averaged more than 44 rushing yards per game in 2022 while adding seven scores.
Jones is also an easy QB to stack. If the preseason is any indication, Malik Nabers is going to be a massive target hog as a rookie. He gobbled up 33% of the targets and 49% of the air yards when the starters were on the field, and he’s already made a few highlight-reel grabs.
Jones has never had someone like Nabers at his disposal, so I’m excited to see how things turn out. His matchup vs. the Vikings also figures to be a good one, with their defense standing out as one of the worst projected units in the league.
Smith is another QB I think could provide some sneaky value in Week 1. Pete Carroll and the old regime is gone, replaced by Ryan Grubb and his prolific system from the University of Washington. The Seahawks have one of the best receiver trios in football, so Smith has massive upside if the team lets him air it out in 2024.
He’ll get a great matchup vs. the Broncos in Week 1. The Seahawks are the third-largest favorites on the main slate, and their implied team total is the sixth-highest. The Broncos also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs in 2023.
