1.5pts Jannik Sinner to beat Tommy Paul 3-0 at 6/5 (BetVictor, bet365)
1pt Tomas Machac to beat Jack Draper at 11/5 (Betway)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
We’ve had upsets at this year’s US Open but the top seed remains and looks in the mood to make sure he takes advantage of the departure of his fellow big guns.
With Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic out in the first week, Sinner is firm title favourite but any feeling that his new-found position would weigh heavily on his shoulders was proved unfounded on Saturday when he blitzed past Christopher O’Connell.
Sinner hit 15 aces and held serve throughout his straight-sets victory. Since losing the opening set of his torunament to Mackenzie McDonald, Sinner has lost just 18 games in nine sets.
Taking in his Cincinnati title, the Italian has now won seven matches on the spin, taking his hardcourt record in 2024 to a highly impressive 31-2.
A few weeks back, I might have suggested Paul would be a tough challenge for Sinner. He still might be, but my view has certainly changed.
He’s clearly been below his best during the current hardcourt swing and did not play well in his third-round victory over qualifier Gabriel Diallo, scraping through in four sets. Unless he raises his game considerably, this could be one-sided.
I think Sinner in straight sets has some value in it at odds-against.
That was the outcome of their only previous hardcourt meeting, in Toronto last summer.
On that day, Paul won just 38% of points behind his second serve and was unable to capitalise on Sinner getting just 46% of first serves in play, a figure he’ll surely improve here.
I tried to take on Draper the other day and failed miserably but, for my sins, I’m ready to try again.
The Briton is clearly playing well and long-term readers will know I’m a big fan and have long felt he’s capable of going deep in one of the Slams. Perhaps this is the one.
But, for me, Machac’s form isn’t being talked about enough. Like Draper, he’s yet to drop a set in New York, scoring a good win over Sebastian Korda in round two before taking David Goffin apart on Saturday.
It’s also more than interesting to see that the Czech leads the pair’s head-to-head 3-0.
The most recent came on the Geneva clay earlier this season – a match settled in straight sets in a week in which Machac also defeated Novak Djokovic. The only one on a hardcourt was indoors in Orleans last season on the Challenger Tour when Machac won in three.
The other day I wrote about Draper’s physical struggles at times and it will be interesting to see what happens if he is dragged into the trenches.
With his unorthodox backhand, Machac looks capable of doing that.
He’s beaten Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe on this hard surface this year and 11/5 about him adding Draper to that list is worth a small bet.
Posted at 1820 BST on 01/09/24
