Alex Pereira is back in action on Saturday as he defends his light heavyweight championship against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307. The card also features a second title match as Raquel Pennington puts the women’s bantamweight title on the line against former champion Julianna Pena.
Pereira has become one of the UFC’s biggest stars over the past three years, blazing into the Octagon after a decorated kickboxing career. He won the middleweight title before dropping the belt and jumping up to 205 pounds to win a title in a second weight class. At light heavyweight, Pereira has been a terror, first edging out Jan Błachowicz before three consecutive knockouts in title fights. In Rountree, he doesn’t face a top-ranked opponent, but Rountree is a vicious and active striker who matches up well in a fight that could produce fireworks.
The undercard features a weird mishmash of big names and rising contenders that you wouldn’t expect to be paired together. Look no further than the feature bout on the PPV when former featherweight king and UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo returns to take on rising bantamweight contender Mario Bautista. After losing his promotional debut to Cory Sandhagen, Bautista is 8-1 with some very impressive submission wins on his resume. Aldo, meanwhile, keeps on trucking despite many thinking he would retire from the sport to pursue other interests. He returned from a two-year layoff in May to beat Jonathan Martinez by decision in Brazil. Aldo is 4-1 in his last five appearances.
After going 3-2 with our best bets for UFC 306, we are sitting with a record of 23-26 on the year. That’s not a winning record, but we’re hoping to get out of the red before the end of the year and that starts by putting together another winning night with UFC 307. Check out UFC betting sites if interested in picking any fight on this card.
Let’s take a look at our picks for the best bet for each main card fight at UFC 307.
Kevin Holland moneyline (-148)
This is a tricky fight with clear, viable paths to victory for both men. Dolidze needs to push the wrestling game and keep Holland on the defensive from his back. Holland, meanwhile, would be best served to keep the fight on the feet and utilize his reach to bang away. On the ground, Holland is slick enough to sneak in submissions but he isn’t likely to want to engage any ground work. Dolidze hasn’t proven to be someone who can reliably force his wrestling on opponents but Holland does occasionally turn in a dud of a performance. Holland by decision at +175 is fairly juicy but a strong enough possibility exists that he does manage to find a finish along the way so we’ll play it safe with the moneyline.
Kayla Harrison via decision (+100)
Harrison is a -1050 favorite coming into the fight and that means you’re left looking for a line where you’re getting any value. Vieira is a good fighter but she’s lost to worse fighters than Harrison several times and there’s no real reason to put money behind her unless you feel like throwing a dart and hoping for a big win. What Vieira does have are legitimate grappling credentials and by picking Harrison by decision, we’re relying on Vieira to be able to survive well enough when Harrison’s judo takes the fight over to last to the final bell. It’s about the only intriguing bet available unless you feel very confident that Harrison can find a finish.
Jose Aldo moneyline (+125)
Aldo is a legend and I’m simply not ready to think taking a decision against Ricky Simon makes someone a favorite against Aldo, especially when Aldo is coming off a dominant performance against an arguably more dangerous opponent in Jonathan Martinez right after making things very hard on Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista is going to want to get takedowns but Aldo has always possessed incredible takedown defense. On the feet, Aldo is still among the best strikers in the world. Being able to get Aldo as an underdog here feels like a steal.
Fight to go the distance: Yes (-245)
Pena is the finisher of the pair but she’s going to have to figure out a way to get inside and then score takedowns to put the fight in a place where she’s more likely to get a submission, given she has not finished a fight by KO or TKO since April 2015. Pennington is probably going to be able to fight off most, if not all, of those takedowns. If we take a dominant Pena approach to ground work out of the equation, the only near sure thing is that the fight goes all five rounds, making the fight going the distance a nice addition to a parlay.
Alex Pereira via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+400)
We are going to throw a dart at the main event. Pereira is -485 to win and -330 to win by knockout. Given we try to keep our best bets to -250 or better, both of those are out, though Pereira via KO parlays very strongly with the women’s title match going the distance at -120. The odds favor Pereira via KO in the first round (+185) but Rountree is dangerous enough that I could see Pereira looking to calmly weather the early storm while dialing in his distance and timing before finishing things in the second round.
Who wins UFC 307, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
