Heading into the third year of the Mike McDaniel era, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in the midst of a contract extension that could make him one of the highest-paid players in the league, but is Tua worth elite quarterback money?
The best way to answer that question is with another question. Is he a top-ten quarterback?
It’s the mark of a franchise leader and is all the ammo you need to consider if he’s worthy of the money. A young, top-ten quarterback is usually the standard for being the next market-setter.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) answered that question, ranking all thirty-two of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks. Unfortunately, Tua ended up on the outside of their top ten club.
Tua Tagovailoa was ranked number fourteen between Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins in the fourth tier titled “The Melting Pot of Starters.”
PFF complimented Tua’s numbers, including the highest PFF passing grade in 2023 (88.9) and his thirty-five big-time throws. His numbers are elite across the board, but his 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate is his real bugaboo and plummets his ranking.
“It was the best season yet for the former No. 5 overall pick, as the talented Tagovailoa earned the highest passing grade in the regular season of any quarterback (88.9) and made 35 big-time throws, good for third in the league. However, his 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate was higher than every other quarterback in the top five of big-time throws, and his 25 turnover-worthy plays were the fifth most.
When the play goes according to plan, Tua can be a surgeon; he had the lowest time to throw of any starting quarterback (2.33 seconds). But interestingly enough, he had the most turnover-worthy plays in the NFL when there was no pressure. His grade takes a significant dip when he is pressured, but he can still be productive if what he expects to see is there.
Tua’s arm is adequate for the NFL level, but it doesn’t get him out of trouble. either. He trusts head coach and play-caller Mike McDaniel a lot, which is a good thing, but there are times when he is too reliant on what the play should be and not what the best decision actually is post-snap.” – Trevor Sikkema
Most of the analysis about Tua is fair and warranted, but they missed the mark with how much those factors impact his ranking.
If you take “quarterback A”, and say that they have top five numbers across the board and have the lowest time to throw, how’s that quarterback, not a top ten guy? I’d argue that the player is probably creeping toward the top five.
You can even sprinkle in the 3.5% turnover play rate, but if you add being top five in big-time throws and leading the league in passing yards, that’s just a gunslinger.
Tua’s arm strength came up as a detractor, but he’s been an elite downfield passer the last two years. Yes, I get it. He doesn’t have a cannon like Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers, and that’s fair, but the passes still get to their destination better than almost anyone, so the arm criticism is invalid.
The pressure issue is warranted, and being mobile is the most glaring hole in Tua’s game. Understandably, Tua put on weight and did ju-jitsu to stay healthy, which was an overwhelming success. He’s putting in the time this offseason to gain his mobility back without compromising the strength he built up to withstand the beating of an NFL season.
The jury is still out on how mobile he’ll be this season, but outside last season, he’s shown to have the capability of taking off when needed.
Even with the mobility issues of last season, if you take everything that PFF laid out in their critique, Tua should be firmly in the top ten, but that’s just one man’s opinion.
Let us know in the comments if you agree with PFF’s quarterback ranking and where you would rank Tua Tagovailoa.