Mike Gillum, the winner last month of the National
Horseplayers Championship, talked about Kentucky Derby 2024 last week on Horse
Racing Nation’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Speaking from his home base in
Indianapolis, he was asked about his strategy for betting the May 4 classic. A transcript
of his response is shown here with editing to provide clarity.

I have been looking at the Kentucky Derby contenders since
all the preps started. I have five possible winners right now. I have another
seven who I think can possibly win, but I like those other five better.

Each and every day going forward, I’ll take one horse, I’ll
dig in, and I’ll try to find everything I could find. I’ll get on YouTube and
try to find all the replays and watch them. I’ll try to find any interviews
with the owners or trainers. I will try to pick one horse and do as much
research as I can and either say, OK, he can’t win, or I really missed that.

Fair odds: Consider these Kentucky Derby long shots.

It’s just got to be a flawless path for these horses. There
just can’t be any hiccups. I just don’t want to see them with some sort of
ailment, and then the trainer says, “Oh, he’s fine now.” It just needs to be
flawless going into the Derby.

Of course, there’s Fierceness. If he gets a good break, and
he gets a jump on the field, everybody’s running for second. He’s the best
horse. He has a good 10 points on all the rest of the horses. He has had a
couple of hiccups as we saw in the Grade 1 Champagne and Holy Bull (G3). There’s
20 horses, so you can get into some trouble, so really it comes down to where
he draws. If he gets a good break, and he gets a good lead, it could be see you
later.

Sierra Leone is the absolute best closer, and there seems to
be plenty of pace in the race. I think there’s going to be a good 10 or 12 horses
placed forward in the race. He likes to be in the back, and then he’ll come
flying, so he actually should get a pretty good setup. Again, to try to get
around 20 horses, it just could be hard. If there is a short price on Fierceness
or Sierra Leone, I’d have a real hard time doing that playing them to win. I
just probably couldn’t do that. They definitely will be in a lot of my Pick 5s
and Pick 6s and trifectas and superfectas.

Japan is going to have a Derby winner one day. They’ve been
dominating all over the world for the last four or five years. Forever Young
could be the one. I don’t think this is the strongest Derby field with the top two
having possible traffic issues. They need to have good, clean runs to win, so Forever
Young could do it.

Just a Touch is a real classy horse. Brad Cox is just the
up-and-coming trainer, so I think Just a Touch has a real good shot.

Right now there is a very, very unpopular horse with
everybody. Nobody thinks he has a shot, but I do. It’s Dornoch. If I had a bet today,
I would probably key Dornoch with a bunch of all these others. In the Remsen
(G2), he took pressure from the outside and turned them away, and he took
pressure from the inside and turned them away. Then Sierra Leone comes and pulls
up right next to him, eyeball to eyeball. Sierra took the lead by like two
noses. And then Dornoch said nuh-uh. He just fought back, and he won that race.
He just showed a ton of heart, took all the pressure and turned away a big
closer. I just love that big heart in him.

Going into the Fountain of Youth (G2), the trainer Danny
Gargan said Dornoch “may be a little short. We’re just going to get a race into
him, try to teach him to maybe settle in and rate. Don’t look for anything
special on this race here.” Then there were two scratches, so Gargan goes to
the jockey Luis Sáez and says, “Change your plans. If you can go for it, go for
it.” He took the lead, it was a really weak field, and he still turned away a
horse and turned away a second horse. Those horses weren’t much, but he turned
them away and got the job done.

Gargan said, “Let’s take the Fountain of Youth, get our
points and get in the Derby.” Then for the Blue Grass, he said, “OK, we’re in
the Derby. We’re not here to use up this horse. Let’s do what we were going to
do in the Fountain of Youth. Let’s rate, let him sit back in the field and take
some dirt.” That’s what he did, and he came in fourth. He just gave him that
race.

I’m really going to be watching how he is training leading
up to the Derby, how he’s maturing and if he’s eating his food and all that
stuff, but right now I would say Dornoch. I haven’t heard anybody say Dornoch
at all. Everybody thinks he can’t win, but he’s in my top five who I really
think can win with Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Dornoch and Just a
Touch.

The Kentucky Derby is such a different race to handicap, and
I love it. For Derby day my bankroll won’t double or triple. I’ll bet 20 times
what I normally bet.

On these big days, I fire at them. There’s definitely value
in all these pools, even the win and exacta. I don’t play them a whole lot, but
if I have a set amount that I’m going to fire at the day, I’m going to try and
get a good score in an early race. Then I’ll take that money and play some tris
and supers and Pick 5s and Pick 6s and try to hit something big.