Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
As we found in a study a few summers ago, quarterbacks who rarely scramble tend to be more sensitive to situations and matchups than those who scramble more often.
Matthew Stafford, who has scrambled the fourth-least frequently of any quarterback over the past four years, fits this pattern. It’s no surprise that Stafford shows significant performance splits depending on whether he’s in a favorable situation or not.
