Winning a Super Bowl is hard. Last year, the San Francisco 49ers were as complete a team as I’ve witnessed fail to get over the hump. A team can draft well, develop well, hit on free agents and have a plan. All of that goes awry when a group of 11 players on the field feels the squeeze of the league’s greatest player and starts making uncharacteristic mistakes. There is no plan when a team comes up against a generational talent such as Patrick Mahomes, just like there was no plan when good teams were flung into the ring with the New England Patriots’ dynasty.
I had a great deal of sympathy after this past Super Bowl for Kyle Shanahan, who was asked about his narrow losses as a coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV and to the Chiefs again a few months ago. His response was basically: Dude, I lost to Tom Brady and Mahomes [and also I wasn’t the head coach of the Falcons]. It reflects the beauty and sadness of this pursuit of perfection that so many in the NFL are on.
Anyway, I’m picking the 12 teams that can actually win the thing this coming season, and there’s no doubt my choices have been somewhat shaped by what I have just written about. There are some trendy teams that I left off my list simply because I don’t think they possess the top-down sturdiness that it takes. Also, if I’m being honest, I felt like I was stretching a bit this year. In years past (2020, ’21, ’22, ’23), I would get to 13 teams no problem. Here, we have 12 teams and even then, so much would have to go right in order for some of them to get to New Orleans in February and perform well there.
It would be strange for the Chiefs to not be in the conversation, though I do think they will have to figure themselves out offensively. The Patriots evolved so many times during the Bill Belichick–Tom Brady era, and now Andy Reid and Mahomes are going to have to figure out what the offense looks like without a table-setting tight end who can mask a ton of mistakes playing at the absolute highest level. Travis Kelce is still great, but it’s ridiculous to expect him to be what he was for another few seasons. Defensively, the Chiefs may be in their golden era as defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has found a harmony with the best players in his secondary and has stocked up on talented and willing role players who are young and only getting better.
I actually liked the idea of Buffalo shedding Stefon Diggs. I think it gives Josh Allen more ownership and makes life a little less complicated for offensive coordinator Joe Brady, whom I’m guessing will try to marry his past with the New Orleans Saints along with the Joe Burrow offense at LSU. Much like the Chiefs turning over, Buffalo losing Gabe Davis, Diggs, Jordan Poyer and more could make way for a necessary youth movement. The Bills have a confident, sturdy quarterback and a coach (Sean McDermott) who can still throw gas as a defensive play-caller from time to time. If the Bills get hot at the right moment, and Brady can figure out the right way to safely get Allen on the move, they’re going to be a difficult team to contend with in January.
A lot has to go well here, right? I think all of us on the outside assume that the Jets are hurtling toward disaster because the quarterback spent mandatory minicamp trying to get to the bottom of the whole pyramid situation. But the reality may be quite different. Aaron Rodgers’s teammates may very well love him and not care at all that he skipped practice. This defensive line is scary deep, and we shouldn’t forget how competitive and plucky this team was after being completely throttled by injury a year ago. Had it not been for a horrendous call, the Jets would have beaten the eventual Super Bowl champions with Zach Wilson at quarterback.
The Ravens played for par this offseason. Baltimore drafts and develops well, so, like any top program, it’s going to get raided from time to time. That’s especially true when John Harbaugh’s brother gets back into the NFL and steals John’s entire offensive backfield. Still, the progress the Ravens made in setting Lamar Jackson up as a dominant, on-schedule passer was undeniable and, to me, unlocks a kind of new, heightened potential for Jackson at the NFL level. OC Todd Monken is going to have his challenges this year breaking in a new-ish offensive line and Harbaugh will need a steady hand guiding new defensive coordinator Zach Orr (no relation). All that said, Baltimore remains a daunting, physical opponent with a secondary better equipped to handle the modern NFL than almost any other.
I don’t think enough was written last season about how Joe Burrow seemed to blow through medical warning signs, get himself out on the field and, by October, figure out a way to play high-level quarterback again before he injured his wrist and had to sit out for the rest of the season. His innate toughness was inspiring and carries over into a year in which the team’s quest to return to the Super Bowl resumes. Though the Bengals were heartbroken to lose D.J. Reader, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is capable of adjustments and has an athletic secondary that can make life miserable for the other quarterbacks in the division. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase still have one of the best on-field relationships in the NFL, and Burrow’s continued digestion and mastery of his own offense will keep defenses on their heels. I’m higher than most on the Bengals in 2024.
If Deshaun Watson is finally able to recapture his old form, Cleveland will add that to a team with a dominant front seven, a very good (if aging) offensive line and a formidable set of weathered skill-position players who can handle big moments. Like the Jets, there are a lot of what-ifs in particular with the Browns. Watson is one. So is Nick Chubb. So is the offensive line without the hyper complex Bill Callahan striking method that answers a lot of questions for linemen before they arise. So is Jerry Jeudy, and whether he will stand out while finally a part of a functional professional offense. But, imagine if some or most of these question marks are assuaged and the Browns start romping through an AFC North that will inevitably be more challenging to traverse than last year. The winner of this division every season is among the most battle-tested teams in the NFL. The Browns as an organization have to know that, with Myles Garrett inching toward his age-30 season and most of that offensive line also trending toward 30, the window is closing. Will the team respond in kind?
The Texans were the team I struggled the most with, given that I’m not even 100% sure they’ll win their division. But this is about teams that can win the Super Bowl, right? And while I think the Indianapolis Colts may have a good shot at edging the Texans for the AFC South crown, there’s no doubt Houston has a higher ceiling as a team, given what we saw a year ago. By virtue of experience alone—not to mention more reps and a deeper profile of throws he can make consistently well—C.J. Stroud is going to be harder to stop than Anthony Richardson. Conventional football wisdom suggests that the Texans must now “go for it” because Stroud is on a rookie contract and is playing well. Rarely do we see that kind of sensible progression play out. Players plateau. Schemes are figured out. Quarterbacks may or may not take the “next step.” But sometimes they don’t. DeMeco Ryans is dynamic, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is on the doorstep of a head coaching job himself and the Texans’ front office has given every indication that it believes this is an AFC championship or bust kind of season.
The 49ers seem to be taking a measured approach, knowing full well that Brock Purdy is going to get expensive at some point. Their offseason was defined, at least from where I’m sitting, by the team’s push to find athletic, game-wrecking defensive players on the cheap. Mission accomplished, after the inking of Rock Ya-Sin and Isaac Yiadom, both of whom add noticeable depth to the team’s secondary. Attrition strikes every NFL team when it comes to injury, but San Francisco has done a nice job of preventing any of its position groups from becoming a glaring weakness if one or two starters go down during the season. This was not the desperation offseason we may have expected from Shanahan and John Lynch, but it’s probably the 49ers’ best chance at getting another crack at the big game.
Now that the Rams have two established receiver threats, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, who are an intimate part of every nook and cranny of their offense, the sky is the limit. The reason? No other team has what the Rams have, so no other team can prepare for the Rams adequately enough. While Sean McVay’s staff was raided and gutted this offseason (again), those remaining and arriving in L.A. have a high ceiling for the 2024 season. The defense is most fascinating, with the injection of rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to a unit that has been steadily hitting on mid-round picks to support Aaron Donald for the past two seasons. The result is a less star-studded but, potentially, more wholly functional unit for new coordinator Chris Shula.
It’s refreshing to see the Lions embrace the hype. It would be silly for them not to. They are the second-best team in the league as presently constructed (and in the season opener last year, they beat the best team in the league). The only perceived hole for the Lions is in their secondary and, one could argue, Jared Goff if he does not hit his absolute talent ceiling. I have no doubt Goff is working hard to realize his full potential—and can within an offense that doesn’t seem to be missing anything. Goff’s teammates have told me that he’s impossible to beat to the facility and has been singularly devoted to the cause of winning a Super Bowl. Detroit has the best offensive line in the NFL and could have a top-five defensive front four, especially when new acquisition D.J. Reader is on the field with Aidan Hutchinson and the vastly underrated Alim McNeill at the same time.
Watching Green Bay wallop the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs last year and then come roaring back against the 49ers in the divisional round was proof that the post-Rodgers Packers have arrived ahead of schedule. This was merely a taste, but after seeing how aggressive Matt LaFleur was in reshaping the defense, it’s proof that he sees what the rest of us do. The Packers have the most underrated wide receiver room in the NFL, and the tight end group is ready to wreak havoc after a year of getting acclimated to the NFL. This offense is set up to diversify the Shanahan scheme in a way we may not have seen quite yet thanks to Jordan Love’s situational mobility, and the unique speed and precision route running of this wide receiver group. It would not shock me if Green Bay simply remained a step ahead schematically throughout the year, much like the Philadelphia Eagles did during the Carson Wentz–Nick Foles Super Bowl season.
I like how quickly we forget that the Eagles are good and built two Super Bowl teams over the span of five years with two different coaches and quarterbacks. Now, after one collapse of a season, the team brought in the highly adaptable Kellen Moore to run the offense and Vic Fangio to run the defense. Sure, the stuffing of “star” coordinators into the same room with no baseline of working together could be a disaster. Or, it could just be that two really good coordinators will be given room to do their best work alongside Nick Sirianni, who has a much higher emotional intelligence rating than I think he’s given credit for. This team still has veteran anchors on the offensive line and a solid pass rush. Its weapon set may be among the best in football. So … why not?
