San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. (ribs/wrist) @ Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. is once again listed with ribs and wrist injuries after dealing with injuries to both body parts earlier this season. The 6-10 49ers squad has nothing to play for and quarterback Brock Purdy has already been ruled out due to a mild elbow contusion and nerve inflammation. Capable backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs will start in Purdy’s stead. Wide receiver-needy fantasy managers should start San Francisco rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall as a WR3 against the Arizona Cardinals, regardless of Samuel’s status though Pearsall would creep toward the WR2 range if Samuel is ruled out.
Pearsall delivered career-best results in Week 17, finishing as the overall points-per-reception (PPR) WR7 by catching 8-of-10 targets for 141 yards and one touchdown while efficiently averaging 3.92 yards per route run (YPRR), per ProFootballFocus. His diverse pre-snap alignment usage (24 snaps on the perimeter and 23 snaps in the slot) gives him full access to the opponent’s cornerback corps, guaranteeing him opportunities to win against the unit’s worst player.
Arizona’s wide receiver-coverage unit allows the sixth-most expected points added (EPA) per play (0.096) among NFL teams and ranks dead last in defensive success rate (44.3 percent).
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San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (ankle/hamstring) @ Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern
The San Francisco 49ers should strongly consider shutting down tough-as-nails tight end George Kittle, who began the week sidelined by ankle and hamstring injuries. This is Kittle’s third hamstring strain of 2024 alone, bringing his recorded career tally up to five. Playing through the injury could further increase his season-to-season recurrence rates and at 31 years old, time is no longer on his side. Should the 6-10 49ers rule Kittle out for Week 18, running back Isaac Guerendo and backup tight end Eric Saubert would benefit.
Arizona’s running back-coverage unit ranks 28th in EPA allowed per play (0.137) and dead last in defensive success rate (42.6 percent) among NFL teams while its tight end-coverage unit ranks 29th in EPA allowed per play (0.121) and dead last in defensive success rate (44.0 percent).
In Kittle’s first hamstring-related absence, Saubert made moderately good on his long-shot odyssey, detailed in the Top 5 NFL injuries and contingency plans for Week 3, catching 2-of-2 targets for 41 receiving yards against the Los Angeles Rams. He caught just 1-of-1 targets for seven yards in Kittle’s second hamstring-related absence in Week 11. Saubert is a below-average talent but can play efficiently on a small workload when boosted by an advantageous matchup.
Among San Francisco pass catchers with at least eight targets earned on pressured dropbacks, Kittle (9.4) and Guerendo (6.8) are the two qualifying players to earn targets via single-digit average depths of target (aDOT). Guerendo has earned four targets in each of his last two games, catching all eight for 83 receiving yards while efficiently averaging 2.02 YPRR. If Kittle cannot play, Guerendo has decent odds of functioning as the primary short-area pass catcher on pressured dropbacks. Seeing Guerendo earn six or more targets in this scenario would be unsurprising. His prospects rise from a borderline RB1/2 to a mid-tier RB1 if Kittle is sidelined.
Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown (ankle) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Saturday, 8:00 pm Eastern
Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown likely suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 17 which kept him sidelined through Week 18 practices. In-season acquisition, running back Khalil Herbert is his primary backup and should be expected to start against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brown is considered a game-time decision but, per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Edwin Porras’ 2024 Injury Prone Draft Guide, running backs average 2.7 games missed after suffering high-ankle sprains. Cincinnati notably signed running back Kendall Milton to the active roster on Thursday, casting further doubt on Brown’s availability.
Cincinnati has utilized a one-player backfield since running back Zack Moss suffered a season-ending neck injury in Week 8, with Brown taking 499-of-555 positional offensive snaps. Brown (151 rushing attempts and 43 targets) and Herbert (eight rushing attempts and one target) are the only two Cincinnati running backs to touch the ball since Week 9.
Herbert owns a 12.0 percent (six snaps) two-minute drill snap share during that span and is the only running back to split two-minute drill snaps with Brown. Herbert has one snap in third- and fourth-and-long situations. Trayveon Williams (two qualifying snaps) and Milton (one qualifying snap) have also mixed in behind Brown (28 qualifying snaps) in theses situations though the two-minute drill is more valuable for fantasy purposes.
Herbert appears to be in line for a substantial, featured workload. The shifty tackle-breaking running back averaged 0.24 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt in 2022 and 2023, tying for third among 42 NFL running backs with at least 250 rushing attempts. His 3.4 yards after contact per rushing attempt ranks seventh. A top-12 positional finish is within his range of outcomes.
Green Bay Packers RBs vs. Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Green Bay Packers running backs Josh Jacobs (wrist) and Chris Brooks (ankle) were limited practice participants on both Wednesday and Thursday and although playoff seeding has yet to crystalize, Green Bay has already clinched a playoff spot which likely leads to a below-average workload for Jacobs, if active. Green Bay is currently a 10.0-point home favorite over the Chicago Bears, per ProFootballFocus’ Scores & Schedule, signaling a run-heavy game script for the already run-heavy Packers. Rotational running back Emanuel Wilson warrants spot-start consideration for running back-needy teams.
Green Bay’s 55.0 percent run-play rate when winning by at least three points ranks fifth among NFL teams.
Chicago allows 1.4 yards before contact per rushing attempt, tying for 10th most among NFL teams. Opponents have tallied the ninth-most explosive run plays (58) against them this season.
A 2023 undrafted free agent (UDFA), Wilson has established himself as a capable contributor in his second NFL season. Among 65 NFL running backs with at least 55 rushing attempts Wilson (89 rushing attempts) ranks ninth in yards per rushing attempt (4.8) and ties for sixth in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.27). Among 63 NFL running backs with at least 10 red zone rushing attempts, Wilson (14 rushing attempts) ties for 12th in first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate (35.7 percent).
Philadelphia Eagles skill position players vs. New York Giants
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
The Philadelphia Eagles have made clear they will rest their core starters this week. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (knee/rest) and DeVonta Smith (wrist/rest) remain sidelined through two practices, as does running back Saquon Barkley (rest). Philadelphia’s No. 3 quarterback Tanner McKee appears likely to start, with starter Jalen Hurts (concussion/finger) and No. 2 quarterback Kenny Pickett (ribs) also unable to practice.
McKee took over in Week 17 when Pickett aggravated his preexisting ribs injury, making good on his aggressive preseason playing style, which is detailed here in the Top 5 NFL injuries and contingency plans for Week 17 piece. On four total dropbacks, McKee produced a 15.3-yard average depth of target while averaging 13.5 yards per passing attempt. He completed all four attempts. If tight end Dallas Goedert (knee) suits up, he can be started as a TE1 with McKee under center. Philadelphia wide receiver Jahan Dotson warrants flex consideration if Brown and Smith are inactive.
The New York Giants’ pass defense ranks 29th in EPA allowed per play (0.138) and 30th in defensive success rate (35.5 percent).
With Barkley all but officially declared inactive, No. 2 running back Kenneth Gainwell and No. 3 running back Will Shipley warrant fantasy consideration. Gainwell’s per-play efficiency (4.3 yards per rushing attempt and 2.8 yards after contact per rushing attempt) bests Shipley’s (2.5 yards per rushing attempt and 2.1 yards after contact per rushing attempt) though both players could mix in if Shipley clears the NFL’s concussion protocol. He practiced in full on Thursday.
New York’s run defense ranks 19th in EPA allowed per play (-0.088) and their 84 missed tackles tie for the fifth-most.
Gainwell profiles as a viable RB2 while Shipley is a touchdown-dependent flex option.
