There are just over three weeks until the highly anticipated release of EA Sports College Football 25, and for those itching for more game content, the developers were kind enough Thursday to release the top 25 offenses featured in the game. Blue bloods Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State all find themselves in the top five, but I’m going to take a little time to dissect these rankings and look at how they compare to my College Football Projection Model’s top offenses for the upcoming season.
If you’re unfamiliar with my work, I have developed a model to predict the strength of college football teams. This process ingests play-by-play level data and adjusts for opponent, home field advantage and garbage time to project how well an offense or defense will perform in the future against an average college football team. The model also takes into account returning production as well as recruiting metrics to project each team’s performance heading into the regular season. The projections are broken down by offense and defense, which can be combined for an overall rating.
Although these rankings — both in my model and in the game — will change throughout the season, it’s interesting to see how similar or different the two systems can be. Let’s take a look at where the biggest differences are between my model and the game.
Shedeur Sanders is one of the top quarterback prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft, so maybe that’s driving the Buffs’ high ranking, but my model has Coach Prime’s offense coming in at No. 49 this season. Colorado ranked 64th in EPA per play on offense and 69th in offensive success rate in 2023, according to TruMedia. The offense might improve from those marks, but if the Buffs field one of the top 10 offenses in college football this season, frankly, I’ll be shocked. A unit that posted an efficiency only slightly above average in college football is unlikely to become one of the country’s best in one offseason.
Yes, needing to replace the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft at quarterback isn’t ideal, but if there is a coach who can do it, it’s Lincoln Riley. In 2019 Riley replaced first overall pick Kyler Murray with Jalen Hurts and led Oklahoma to a top-five offense. According to TruMedia, a Riley offense hasn’t finished worse than 13th in EPA/play since 2019, and that No. 13 finish occurred during the pandemic-altered 2020 season. Redshirt junior Miller Moss, a top-100 recruit in his high school class according to the 247Sports Composite rankings, looked just fine in the bowl game last season. If history tells us anything, it’s that Riley is likely to have a top-15 offense at worst, no matter who is playing quarterback.
GO DEEPER
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The Buckeyes dominated the transfer portal during the offseason, but replacing quarterback Kyle McCord (who transferred to Syracuse) with Will Howard (who transferred from Kansas State) has led to some skepticism within my model and among the developers at EA Sports. Sure, Ohio State ranks sixth by my numbers and fifth in the game, but they’re a ways off from where they’ve been during Ryan Day’s tenure at Ohio State. The difference between Georgia and Ohio State’s offense in my model is the same as the gap between No. 6 and No. 15. Looking at EA’s ratings, the difference between the Buckeyes and the top spot is the same between No. 5 and No. 21-22. That’s not the standard that has become the norm in Columbus, and all eyes will be focused on this offense as pressure mounts to get back to the top of college football.
(Screenshot courtesy of EA Sports)
