Last Updated On 22 February 2025, 9:12 AM EST (Toronto Time)
Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) has released the list of occupations that are at risk of facing significant shortages until 2033.
This forecast, drawn from the ESDC’s Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) and its Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS), paints a vivid picture of the challenges—and opportunities—ahead for workers, employers, and policymakers.
From healthcare heroes to construction trailblazers, these high-demand roles are set to shape Canada’s future.
But what does this mean for you? Let’s dive into the data, unpack the trends, and reveal the top 100 occupations poised for shortages over the next decade.
A Labour Market Under Pressure: The Big Picture
Canada’s labour market is gearing up for a marathon, not a sprint. According to the ESDC’s forecast until 2033, a staggering 8.1 million job openings are expected nationwide.
This figure breaks down into two key drivers:
2.6 million new jobs fueled by economic growth (expansion demand).
5.5 million replacement positions, with 4.3 million tied to retirements as Canada’s baby boomers exit the workforce.
Replacement demand will dominate, accounting for 68.1% of all job openings. That’s a clear signal: Canada’s aging population is leaving big shoes to fill.
Meanwhile, three-quarters of these openings will demand post-secondary education or management skills, highlighting the premium on skilled labour.
On the supply side, 8.2 million job seekers are projected to enter the market, sourced from:
5.9 million school leavers (recent graduates).
2.6 million immigrants, bolstered by Canada’s immigration policies.
A small net loss of 180,000 non-working participants exiting the labour pool.
While supply and demand appear nearly balanced at a macro level, the devil is in the details.
Over 100 occupations are flagged for shortages, meaning job openings will outpace qualified candidates.
These gaps could disrupt industries, slow economic growth, and spark fierce competition for talent.
Conversely, 17 occupations face surplus risks, mostly in arts and culture—proof that not all sectors will feel the pinch equally.
Why These Shortages Matter—and Who’s Affected
The ESDC’s COPS models analyze 485 of 516 occupations in the National Occupational Classification (NOC) system, offering a granular look at where imbalances loom.
The stakes are high: labour shortages can delay projects, inflate wages, and strain public services.
For instance, a shortage of nurses could stretch healthcare systems thin, while a lack of construction workers might stall housing development—a critical issue amid Canada’s housing crisis.
Canada’s immigration department is watching closely. These projections often guide immigration programs, opening pathways for skilled workers to fill gaps or alter the existing programs to meet the needs.
With immigration targets recently adjusted (downward from spring 2024 levels as of October 2024), the ESDC notes that while labour dynamics may shift slightly, the core list of shortage-prone occupations remains robust.
So, which jobs are at risk? The data reveals a concentration in healthcare, natural and applied sciences, construction, and transportation, with a few surprises sprinkled in.
Here’s your ultimate guide to the top 100 occupations facing shortages until 2033, complete with NOC codes and insights into why they’re critical.
The Top 100 Occupations Facing Shortages: A Deep Dive
1. Healthcare: The Beating Heart of Canada’s Labour Crisis
Healthcare tops the list, with 38 occupations at risk—a reflection of an aging population and rising demand for medical services.
Many of these roles already faced shortages in 2021-2023, and the pressure isn’t easing.
Emerging needs also spotlight roles like Nurse Practitioners (NOC 31302) and Medical Sonographers (NOC 32122), driven by advances in care delivery and diagnostics.
Specialists in Clinical Medicine (31100)
Specialists in Surgery (31101)
General Practitioners (31102)
Veterinarians (31103)
Dentists (31110)
Optometrists (31111)
Audiologists (31112)
Pharmacists (31120)
Dietitians (31121)
Psychologists (31200)
Chiropractors (31201)
Physiotherapists (31202)
Occupational Therapists (31203)
Other Health Diagnosing Professions (31209)
Nursing Coordinators (31300)
Registered Nurses (31301)
Nurse Practitioners (31302)
Physician Assistants (31303)
Licensed Practical Nurses (32101)
Paramedics (32102)
Respiratory Therapists (32103)
Animal Health Technologists (32104)
Other Therapy Technicians (32109)
Dental Hygienists (32111)
Medical Lab Technologists (32120)
Medical Radiation Technologists (32121)
Medical Sonographers (32122)
Cardiology Technologists (32123)
Pharmacy Technicians (32124)
Other Medical Technicians (32129)
Massage Therapists (32201)
Medical Lab Assistants (33101)
Nurse Aides (33102)
Pharmacy Assistants (33103)
2. Natural and Applied Sciences: Innovators in Demand
With 12 occupations flagged, this sector underscores Canada’s push for innovation in tech, engineering, and sustainability.
These roles often require advanced degrees, making the pipeline of talent a bottleneck.
Architecture and Science Managers (20011)
Cybersecurity Specialists (21220)
Civil Engineers (21300)
Mechanical Engineers (21301)
Electrical and Electronics Engineers (21310)
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers (21321)
Geological Engineers (21331)
Civil Engineering Technologists (22300)
Mechanical Engineering Technologists (22301)
Construction Estimators (22303)
Electrical Engineering Technologists (22310)
Aircraft Mechanics and Inspectors (22313)
3. Trades, Construction, and Transportation: Building Canada’s Future
The construction sector claims 25 occupations, fueled by housing needs and infrastructure investments.
Physical demands and training timelines mean these shortages could linger.
Construction Managers (70010)
Home Renovation Managers (70011)
Machinists (72100)
Sheet Metal Workers (72102)
Welders (72106)
Electricians (72200)
Industrial Electricians (72201)
Plumbers (72300)
Gas Fitters (72302)
Carpenters (72310)
Cabinetmakers (72311)
Bricklayers (72320)
Millwrights (72400)
Heavy-Duty Mechanics (72401)
HVAC Mechanics (72402)
Aircraft Mechanics (72404)
Automotive Technicians (72410)
Electrical Mechanics (72422)
Water Well Drillers (72501)
Air Pilots (72600)
Other Technical Trades (72999)
Concrete Finishers (73100)
Roofers (73110)
Painters (73112)
Floor Installers (73113)
Transport Truck Drivers (73300)
Water Transport Crew (74201)
Construction Helpers (75110)
4. Education and Social Services: Shaping Minds and Communities
11 occupations here signal a need for educators and caregivers.
Immigration could play a big role in filling these gaps, especially for credentialed professionals.
Secondary School Teachers (41220)
Elementary Teachers (41221)
Social Workers (41300)
Therapists in Counselling (41301)
Police Officers (42100)
Firefighters (42101)
Social Service Workers (42201)
Early Childhood Educators (42202)
Disability Instructors (42203)
Teacher Assistants (43100)
Home Support Workers (44101)
5. Natural Resources and Agriculture
Oil and Gas Supervisors (82021)
Livestock Workers (84120)
Livestock Labourers (85100)
Harvesting Labourers (85101)
Greenhouse Labourers (85103)
Mine Labourers (85110)
6. Sales and Service
Rounding out the list, 10 occupations span retail, food, and specialized fields.
Insurance Agents (63100)
Cooks (63200)
Butchers (63201)
Postal Services Reps (64401)
7. Manufacturing and Utilities
Paper Machine Operators (94122)
Industrial Butchers (94141)
Fish Plant Workers (94142)
Electrical Assemblers (94203)
Metal Fabrication Labourers (95101)
Wood Processing Labourers (95103)
Food Processing Labourers (95106)
Fish Processing Labourers (95107)
Full list of occupations expected to face risks of surplus
While shortages dominate, 17 occupations face surplus risks, including:
12113 Statistical officers and related research support occupations
14111 Data entry clerks
22113 Conservation and fishery officers
22213 Land survey technologists and technicians
22214 Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology
22222 Information systems testing technicians
50011 Managers – publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts
51120 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations
52100 Library and public archive technicians
52114 Announcers and other broadcasters
52119 Other technical and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts
52120 Graphic designers and illustrators
53100 Registrars, restorers, interpreters and other occupations related to museum and art galleries
53111 Motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and performing arts assistants and operators
53200 Athletes
75100 Longshore workers
84111 Silviculture and forestry workers
Most surpluses cluster in arts, culture, and niche administrative roles.
What’s Next for Canada?
Canada stands at a crossroads. With healthcare, trades, and sciences driving shortages, employers may need to innovate—think upskilling programs, competitive wages, or automation.
Immigration will remain a lifeline, though recent target adjustments add uncertainty.
For job seekers, these 100+ occupations offer a roadmap to secure, future-proof careers.
Want to explore further? The ESDC’s full COPS data is your go-to resource. Whether you’re a nurse, engineer, or tradesperson, Canada’s labour market needs you—now and through 2033.
Satinder brings expertise, knowledge, and experience related to internal work flows at IRCC. She worked at Canadian Consulate in Chandigarh before moving to Canada.
