Coaches always talk about teams “peaking at the right time.” Now that we live in a version of college football with an expanded playoff that allows teams with three losses to compete for a national title, you’ll hear it more and more.

You’ll hear it here, too, because The Six Pack is peaking at the right time, folks. We’re 9-3 over the last two weeks and 15-9 over the last month. That means, for the first time all season, the column is in the plus money to start the week.

We did it. We dug ourselves a big hole, and we found our way out. Let’s stay up here a bit longer, shall we?

Games of the Week

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State: The smaller spreads on sports betting apps this weekend were to be expected. Now that divisions are a thing of the past, you’re far more likely to see the two best teams in each league playing in the conference title game. It turns out the teams at the top of each league aren’t separated by much.

This further confirms a theory of mine, which is supported by data. Typically, when it comes to betting the spread in a conference title game, take the team you expect to win. Since 2014, 91 conference title games have been played. The team that won the game also went 70-20-1 against the spread. Furthermore, when the spread is 3.5 points or fewer, the winning team is an astounding 34-2 against the spread.

I’m betting on Oregon, but I do not think Oregon will blow Penn State out. While this spread may be a surprise to many of you, it isn’t to me. Penn State is good. Do not let its inability to beat Ohio State fool you in that regard. That said, while these teams are evenly matched in most areas, Oregon is vastly superior at the receiver position. One or two plays from Oregon receivers could prove to be the difference here. The Pick: Oregon -3.5 (-105) via DraftKings

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia: How much can we take from the original meeting? You know, the one where Georgia turned the ball over three times and still beat Texas in Austin by 15 because the Longhorns one-upped them with four turnovers? I’ll say this: I’d bet there won’t be so many turnovers this time.

What I’m not sure changes is the Texas offense’s inability to move the ball. Including that Georgia game, the Longhorns have averaged only 26.5 points per contest — and that’s skewed by 49 against a Florida team that was down to its third-string quarterback. The truth is, this offense hasn’t been good in months, and the red zone issues that were a major problem last year haven’t improved much.

I trust Carson Beck more than Quinn Ewers. The interception problems that plagued Beck for a month have disappeared since the return of Tate Ratledge to the Georgia offensive line — as has the pressure from opposing defensive linemen. Ewers has better options at receiver, but he hasn’t been great at getting the ball to them. Perhaps the improved run game we’ve seen from Texas continues and leads to a win, but I’m not ready to bet on it. The Pick: Georgia +2.5 (-105) via Fanduel

Lock of the Week

No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson: Most of the talk around the ACC Championship Game has centered on what the committee might do if SMU loses. Will they keep the Mustangs ahead of Alabama, or will the Tide stay ahead of a another two-loss ACC team? I think we’ll find out soon enough. I’m not trying to diminish anything SMU has accomplished this season. It’s a great team that earned its way here and has been terrific since putting Kevin Jennings at quarterback. But that doesn’t add anything to the Mustangs’ strength of schedule.

To this point, the best defense the Mustangs have faced is Duke, and — surprise! — they had their worst performance of the season that day. They turned the ball over six times but somehow won by a point, thanks in part to two missed Duke field goals. It’s doubtful we’ll see six turnovers here, but we should see SMU struggle to move the ball.

I know Clemson lost to South Carolina last week, but it’s not as if the Tigers were overmatched. They simply came up short in a rivalry game. Toss in the fact that this “neutral” site is much more of a home game for the Tigers, and since they absolutely have to have it, I’m going with Dabo Swinney and the boys. The Pick: Clemson +2.5 (-110) via Fanatics

Playoff Game of the Week

No. 20 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State (Friday): It’s a simple mission for both these teams: win, and you’re going to the College Football Playoff. Lose, and you’re going to a mid-tier bowl game. Who wins? Don’t know! I lean toward Boise, but I’m not certain. 

However, the betting under feels appealing for two reasons. The first is that UNLV’s defense did a tremendous job of limiting Ashton Jeanty in the first meeting. Yes, he finished with 128 yards rushing but averaged only 3.88 per carry. It was his worst game of the year as UNLV decided to see what Boise could do on offense if you took away the Broncos’ explosive runs. It wasn’t enough to win that day, but I see no reason for UNLV to change the approach. However, that game was also indoors. This one ain’t. The forecast calls for temps in the 30s on Friday night in Boise, Idaho. Not exactly the kind of weather that produces explosive offense. The Pick: Under 58.5 (-115) via BetMGM

Ne-Yo Concert of the Week

No. 15 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State: It’s another win-and-in game, and like in the Mountain West, I don’t have a particularly strong sense of who will win — nor should I. It’s the Big 12, and every single game in this league is essentially a coin flip that comes down to a play or two — or maybe a bouncing oblong ball. Either team could win this game in myriad ways. But the most likely outcome, as far as I can tell, is a low-scoring affair.

Arizona State will lean on Cam Skattebo and its ground game, which will keep the clock running. Iowa State doesn’t run as often as Arizona State, but the Cyclones aren’t overly explosive, either. Additionally, both teams struggle to finish drives. The Cyclones rank No. 68 nationally in points per red-zone possession, which is better than Arizona State, which ranks No. 87. I’m betting on handoffs and field goals! The Pick: Under 51 (-110) via Caesars

Rematch of the Week

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Friday): Yes, I know this is the third rematch I’ve included in the column, but it’s the only rematch of a game we saw last week! Last week’s contest was not a high-scoring one, as Jacksonville State won 19-17. WKU did move the ball well but simply didn’t finish. I expect better from both this week, but not so much to go over the line on betting apps. While this is purely anecdotal — in the rare instances where we do see teams play in consecutive weeks — it feels like the defense has the advantage because they have a much better idea of what’s coming. Something else to consider? Both the head coaches in this game have been tied to openings elsewhere! Could have an impact! The Pick: Under 57.5 (-108) via DraftKings