Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is just around the corner. What better way to raise (or temper) expectations than with a complete breakdown of predictions and projections.
Below is a guide of what to expect once the season kicks off Thursday — from power rankings of all 32 teams, to teams that will score the most points and defenses that will allow the least, to the toughest and easiest schedules. We also make predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl LIX.
If you’re looking for even more in-depth content, check out my rankings and assessments of the best and worst positional units across the league, as well as my 80-page projections PDF.
Jump ahead to …
Schedule: Easiest | Toughest
Offense projections: Best | Worst
Defense projections: Best | Worst
Power rankings | Super Bowl pick
The NFC South wasn’t particularly impressive on paper last season, and yet two teams managed a winning record thanks in part to a very light schedule.
One year ago, the Saints and Falcons were 1-2 here in the preseason, and both teams tied for the league’s easiest slate by season’s end. We might see something similar in 2024, with the Falcons (first), Panthers (second), Saints (fourth) and Buccaneers (13th) all set up nicely.
Atlanta has a few tough opponents on the schedule (Chiefs, Cowboys and Eagles), but that’s more than offset by pedestrian divisional opposition as well as matchups with the Giants, Broncos, Commanders, Raiders and Vikings. All five of those teams will start either a rookie QB or an unintimidating veteran.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have the third-easiest slate overall and are set up with the lightest schedule in the AFC.
The Patriots lead this unfortunate category for the second consecutive season. The tough AFC East is a major culprit here, as the Patriots will play six of their 17 games against the Jets, Dolphins or Bills. They also have matchups against the 49ers, Bengals and Texans (the former two are both on the road). There are a couple of light contests — the Titans and Cardinals jump out — but all others project as average or tougher.
The Bills (second toughest), Steelers (third), Texans (fourth) and Vikings (fifth) round out the league’s five toughest schedules.
The Chiefs top this category for the sixth consecutive season … and it has worked out pretty well except for last season. In 2019, I had them projected at 469 points, and they finished with 451. In 2020, it was 470 projected, 473 actual. In 2021, 477 and 480, respectively. In 2022, 479 projected and 496 actual. And finally in 2023, I projected Kansas City to score 498 points, and it finished at 371.
The huge dip to 15th in scoring last season was a bit of a shocker, but the Chiefs were more conservative due to an underwhelming wide receiver situation and elite defensive play. With an upgraded WR room that includes Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy, a big rebound is likely in store.
2. San Francisco 49ers, 455 points
3. Detroit Lions, 437 points
1:48
Why Riddick isn’t a fan of the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen comparisons
Louis Riddick and Mike Tannenbaum explain why it’s unfair to measure Bills quarterback Josh Allen against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
The Giants’ offense includes offensive tackle Andrew Thomas and rookie receiver Malik Nabers, but it’s hard to find much else to get excited about here. Quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled with injuries and effectiveness, Saquon Barkley was replaced by Devin Singletary at running back, and rookie Theo Johnson is taking over for a retired Darren Waller at tight end. Recent offensive line investments have yet to work out, as 2022 seventh pick Evan Neal is no longer a starter.
2. New England Patriots, 310 points
3. Washington Commanders, 320 points
The Browns’ defense was second to only the Ravens’ with a minus-111.44 EPA (minus-6.55 per game) in 2023. We shouldn’t expect much of a dip in 2024, as all eight defenders who played 600-plus snaps for Cleveland last season remain on the roster. That list includes Myles Garrett, Dalvin Tomlinson, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Grant Delpit, Juan Thornhill and the elite Denzel Ward/Martin Emerson Jr./Greg Newsome II CB trio.
That group doesn’t even mention standout edge rusher Za’Darius Smith or new off-ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, who joined the roster this offseason. This is an excellent defense.
2. New York Jets, 339 points
3. San Francisco 49ers, 341 points
The Cardinals have allowed the most points per game over the past two seasons (26.6) and did little during the offseason to suggest things will go much better in the short term.
Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson form a quality safety duo, but there are minimal impact players in the front seven and at cornerback. Arizona was smart to address defense during April’s draft (DT Darius Robinson, CB Max Melton and CB Elijah Jones were selected in the first three rounds), but they’ll all require some development.
2. Denver Broncos, 423 points
3. New York Giants, 421 points
Asterisks indicate my projected playoff teams.
The defending NFC champion 49ers enter 2024 with top-five units on both sides of the ball, and once Trent Williams suits up, they will be without a major concern area across the roster. This could be the year for Kyle Shanahan & Co.
Last season’s 11-6 record marked the fewest regular-season wins by a Chiefs team since Patrick Mahomes took over, which shows just how elite this franchise has been. Still stocked with talent on both sides of the ball — including a better WR room — Andy Reid’s squad remains the favorite in the AFC.
Don’t laugh. With a loaded defense, healthy Aaron Rodgers and improved offensive supporting cast (including a potentially elite line with the addition of LT Tyron Smith), the Jets own one of the league’s best rosters.
Lamar Jackson and newcomer Derrick Henry lead the offense, and the core remains in place for a defense that allowed a league-low 280 points last season.
Dallas didn’t add much to its roster this offseason despite the offensive line being a concern, but a top defense and formidable passing game make it a favorite to repeat in the NFC East.
2:21
McAfee: CeeDee Lamb’s new deal big for the Cowboys
Pat McAfee and crew react to CeeDee Lamb agreeing to a contract extension with the Dallas Cowboys.
Detroit already had the offense (the OL might actually be better this season), and the defense is much improved (hello, Carlton Davis III, DJ Reader and Terrion Arnold). Perhaps this is the year the Lions take the NFC.
With an above-average defense and an elite offense — assuming we get a full season of the Joe Burrow-to-Ja’Marr Chase connection — the Bengals are set for a return to contender status in the AFC.
Miami has an excellent defense on paper, as well as a deep group of offensive playmakers. But a dicey offensive line and a recent string of late-season fades are concerning.
The Browns’ aforementioned defense is elite, and their offensive line remains one of the best in the league. So even an average season from Deshaun Watson should be enough to contend in a tough AFC North.
The Texans had a busy offseason and added plenty of support for second-year QB C.J. Stroud, including Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon (not to mention superstar Danielle Hunter on defense). They’re legitimate AFC South favorites.
The Eagles’ defense still has major concern areas that could again prove detrimental, but an offense led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley remains elite even without Jason Kelce.
Atlanta looks solid after a few recent defensive additions (Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons) and a new-look offense led by Kirk Cousins. With the league’s lightest schedule, the Falcons have vaulted to “favorite” status in the NFC South.
The Packers have an excellent coach in Matt LaFleur, are above average on both sides of the ball and appear to have another quarterback gem in Jordan Love. They certainly could unseat Detroit in the NFC North.
This roster is shakier than in years past after the departures of Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White and others. (Linebacker Matt Milano is also out indefinitely with a torn biceps.) Of course, coach Sean McDermott has done more with less before, and Josh Allen is still the quarterback, so the Bills remain a threat.
Chicago has set Caleb Williams up with an elite group of targets, and you shouldn’t overlook what is an above-average defense on paper, led by Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson. The NFC North will be must-watch TV this season.
New coach Mike Macdonald has put together a good-looking defense on paper, but an elite group of offensive playmakers could be offset by what might be the league’s most concerning O-line.
One of the league’s shakiest lines could once again prove detrimental to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense, though a solid defense will keep Jacksonville in the AFC South mix.
Anthony Richardson‘s supporting cast is solid, so if he proves to be the real deal, this Colts offense will be very good. Add that to a solid defense led by DeForest Buckner, and Indianapolis could be back in playoff contention.
3:22
Fantasy Face-off: Draft Joe Burrow or Anthony Richardson?
Field Yates and Matt Bowen debate whether Joe Burrow or Anthony Richardson is a better fantasy quarterback selection.
The impact of Aaron Donald’s retirement can’t be overstated and leaves defensive questions, but an elite offense led by Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will be enough to keep the Rams in wild-card contention.
The T.J. Watt-led defense remains one of the league’s best units, but the offense has major uncertainty at quarterback, wide receiver and the offensive line. The Steelers have finished in the 8-10-win range in five of the past six seasons and figure to hang around .500 again in 2024.
The Chargers have Justin Herbert, but his group of targets is as shaky as they come — and there are holes at all levels of the defense. Coach Jim Harbaugh has his work cut out if he’s going to get this team to the playoffs in Year 1.
New Orleans still has a top-10 defense, but the Ryan Ramczyk-less offensive line is a massive concern and could easily derail Derek Carr and this offense.
The Titans made a few big-name additions (including L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, JC Latham and Jamal Adams), but with Derrick Henry gone, a big leap from second-year QB Will Levis is an absolute must if they’re going to hang in the AFC South.
The Bucs took advantage of a weak NFC South en route to nine wins and a playoff berth last season, but this isn’t a particularly impressive roster on either side of the ball, especially with several key defenders gone and not replaced. Expect a step back.
Bryce Young enters an all-important Year 2 with a new coach (Dave Canales) and a much-improved supporting cast led by Diontae Johnson. Carolina’s overhauled defense has a few stars but isn’t going to scare many offenses.
Minnesota’s defense is solid after making a few key additions to help offset the departure of Danielle Hunter, but it’s hard to expect much from an offense that has gone from Kirk Cousins (now in Atlanta) to Sam Darnold. Coach Kevin O’Connell will need to work his magic without J.J. McCarthy as a potential starter after his season-ending meniscus tear.
Las Vegas has Maxx Crosby and made a few high-profile additions (Christian Wilkins and Brock Bowers), but with an iffy secondary and perhaps the league’s least inspiring QB room (Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell), the Raiders are a good bet to miss the playoffs for the 20th time in the past 22 seasons.
This is a tough one considering a Sean Payton-led team has never won fewer than seven games, but Denver is among the bottom six on both sides of the ball and will need to hit the jackpot with rookie QB Bo Nix to get out of the basement in the AFC.
Arizona has a potentially dangerous connection between Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., but holes along the offensive line, as well as the aforementioned weak defense, are reasons for major concern.
Washington might have the league’s best off-ball linebacker room, but there are concerns almost everywhere else, including at other defensive positions. Many of the roster holes will be covered up if No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels makes an immediate impact under center.
New England is in transition not only at quarterback with No. 3 pick Drake Maye but also at head coach with Jerod Mayo replacing Bill Belichick. Stuck in a strong division and without Matthew Judon (traded to Atlanta) or Christian Barmore (blood clots), the Patriots are in rebuild mode.
1:25
Schefter: Drake Maye will play this year for Patriots
Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee why New England will inevitably look to start Drake Maye at some point this season.
The Giants have won six or fewer games in six of the past seven seasons, and arguably the league’s worst overall roster suggests they will make it seven of eight in 2024. If Daniel Jones doesn’t make a big leap after returning from an ACL tear, there’s a good chance the Giants will choose his replacement with the first pick in April’s draft.
The Chiefs will certainly give them a run for their money, but I made the case that the Jets will win the Super Bowl way back in May, and I stand by it. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are the class of the NFC but will fall just short of the gold for the second year in a row.
