After underdogs reigned supreme in the first month of the NFL season, a clear hierarchy has emerged in the past three weeks. There’s been an increased and noticeable divide between the haves and have-nots in the league. Only two games had a double-digit spread in the first seven weeks of the season, when the 49ers hosted the Patriots in Week 4 and the Commanders hosted the Panthers in Week 7. However, as of Wednesday night, there is one double-digit spread and five more games in which one team is favored by at least a touchdown.
Week 8 does not feature any bye weeks, international games, or Monday night doubleheaders, resulting in a jam-packed Sunday afternoon slate. Here are my thoughts on all 16 games this week, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Sean McVay made changes to the Rams’ defensive depth chart ahead of their Week 5 loss to the Packers. The Rams’ defensive improvements since then have piqued my interest in betting on the home underdogs in Week 8. After the McVay changes, they posted their two best defensive performances of the season by expected points added per drive.
The defense’s season-long numbers are bringing down the averages for the current version of the Rams. In the first four weeks of the season, only the Commanders were worse than the Rams in EPA per play, so there was nowhere to go but up for the group. Last week, Los Angeles had its best defensive coverage rating from PFF and overall defensive grade against the Raiders. I typically don’t care about defensive production in small samples, but the trend line’s immediate improvement once McVay switched up the secondary seems like signal more than noise to me.
If you look at their combined offensive and defensive success rate this season, these teams are much closer than conventional wisdom or the market would suggest. The Vikings are ninth, and the Rams are 15th.
The Rams should have Cooper Kupp back in the lineup to aid the skill position group. I know there have been trade rumors about him throughout this week, and I imagine this is the spot for the Rams to go all in to try to save their season. A loss would drop them to 2-5 and likely out of the playoff race in the NFC.
Verdict: Bet Rams +3 (-122).
One win against the Patriots in a favorable London setting shouldn’t be enough to convince anyone to fully support the Jaguars, but I’m intrigued by the fact that the betting group has consistently backed them this season. If you monitor line movement each week, Jacksonville has received significant market support. This trend can be traced back to the Jaguars’ Week 3 game against Buffalo; the market has favored Jacksonville by at least a point every week since then.
For the second year in a row, Jacksonville has opted not to take a bye week after the London doubleheader. Last year, the Jaguars easily defeated the Colts by 17 points in their first game back in the United States, indicating that the spot may be a disadvantage for them.
Sunday poses a potential trap for Green Bay, which is still followed by high variance indicators. Even though it has a 5-2 record, Green Bay ranks 30th in combined success rate and has relied heavily on high-leverage plays. This raises concerns if you’re supporting the Packers as a road favorite, especially after they had a close win against the Texans and have a massive lookahead game against Detroit looming next week.
Although the Packers have a plethora of strong offensive players to exploit the weak Jaguars secondary, Jacksonville’s man-heavy scheme may pose a challenge. The Packers offense is 30th in EPA per play against man coverage this season.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars +4.5 (-120).
The market is fully expecting Tua Tagovailoa to return after his concussion, and the Dolphins are now priced accordingly. The questions you have to ask are how good the Dolphins were with Tagovailoa in the lineup and how effective he’ll be in his first game back after a major concussion.
Miami had a fortunate come-from-behind win against Jacksonville in Week 1 and was in the midst of getting blown out by Buffalo in Week 2 before Tagovailoa went down. Their inconsistent performances in those two games create uncertainty on the Dolphins, even though Tagovailoa is back. Miami’s defense took a real step forward against New England and Indianapolis in its last two games, but I’m not too sure I believe in it yet.
Arizona beat the Chargers with a last-second field goal on Monday Night Football, but its defense offered little resistance against the Chargers’ passing game. Justin Herbert threw for 349 yards, and the offense posted 6.2 yards per play.
Miami’s quick passing game should be able to move the ball at will.
Verdict: Pass.
The first of three divisional rematches this NFL season will take place in Week 8 when the Patriots return from London to face the Jets. The Pats are seeking to avenge their blowout Week 3 loss on Thursday Night Football. They have become a more explosive team since Drake Maye took over as quarterback, resulting in an increase in their offense output. New England ranked 31st in explosive pass rate in the first five weeks of the season but has jumped up to 15th in the two weeks since Maye became the starter.
The Jets had their most efficient offensive game of the season in their first matchup with the Patriots in Week 3. They finished that game with a 61.4 percent success rate, more than 10 percent higher than what they had in any other game this season. They took their foot off the gas pedal in the second half, when they played with a big lead against the anemic Patriots offense, resulting in just eight total Jets possessions throughout the whole game.
The spread for the Week 3 game closed with the Jets favored by 6.5 points at home, and a 39.5 projected total. Given the Patriots’ quarterback change, the steady decline of both the Jets defense (13th in EPA per drive) and the Patriots defense (28th in EPA per drive), and some injury concerns for the Jets secondary, all signs point to a somewhat higher-scoring game in the second meeting between these two AFC East foes.
Verdict: Bet over 41.5 (-105).
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns
This will be a second consecutive road game for Baltimore. It’s a division matchup that you’d expect the Browns to be up for defensively. There’s an inflated spread because the Browns have lost five in a row and still haven’t scored 20 points this season. Everything I’ve learned about betting the NFL over the years says I should bet the Browns here in Week 8. This is the “buy low, sell high” game of the week. I do have questions about the Browns’ quarterback situation. There are 100 quarterbacks with at least 80 plays since 2020. Starter Jameis Winston ranks 36th in EPA + CPOE composite.
It’s not clear to me why Kevin Stefanski had Winston as the emergency quarterback and not the regular backup on Sunday. He remains the best choice for quarterback and has the best chance of passing the ball against a Baltimore secondary that yet again showed major flaws against Tampa Bay. This is the gross bet of the week.
Verdict: Bet Browns +9.5
The Eagles had no issues running all over the Giants and, in theory, should be able to replicate some of that success against the weaker Bengals defensive front in this game. Cincinnati’s run defense has played marginally better in the last few weeks since B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins have returned from injury, but Philadelphia is capable of running on basically everyone in the league.
The real question for me is whether or not the Eagles passing offense is fixable. Jalen Hurts dropped back 21 times in the win against the Giants, and he was either sacked or scrambled on seven of them. Other than the deep go ball completion to A.J. Brown for a touchdown on Sunday, Philadelphia’s passing offense looks like it has taken a step backward in 2024. The same problems that existed with the pass game last year have continued into this season despite the offensive coordinator change to Kellen Moore. If this game does become a back-and-forth passing contest, that heavily favors Cincinnati.
The Bengals offense took a step back in the last two weeks against the Giants and Browns after a red hot start to the 2024 season. These two teams are power rated similarly for me, so once accounting for home field advantage, I’m in line with the market on this game.
One stat that concerns me and keeps me from betting on Cincinnati: The Eagles rank sixth defensively in havoc created, while the Bengals are 30th.
Verdict: Lean Bengals -2.5
What happens when you take a low-success-rate offense that relies on explosive plays and remove its most explosive player? You end up with the Texans’ offensive performance in Week 7 against Green Bay without star wideout Nico Collins. Houston has now dropped to 27th in offensive success rate, ranking worse than the Panthers, Titans, and Giants. Collins remains on injured reserve, and while the Texans have seen some rushing success since Joe Mixon’s return from an injury in Week 6 against New England, the offense still appears quite clunky.
Houston had a lot of success running the ball on the Colts in their first head-to-head matchup in Week 1. However, the Colts defense has shown significant improvements against the run since the first two games, when Houston and Green Bay ran all over them. The Colts are currently seventh in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed. Additionally, the Colts have opened the practice window for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to return from injured reserve this week.
The Texans aren’t the only ones who have an offense still trying to figure out its identity. They have a strong run defense, which will pose challenges for the Colts offense in sustaining drives. Although the Colts remain highly explosive due to Anthony Richardson’s downfield passing abilities, their offensive success rates on a play-by-play basis remain in the bottom third of the league. Even with Jonathan Taylor potentially returning to the lineup, all indications suggest that the game will be low scoring. The outcome will likely be determined by whichever boom-or-bust offense manages to hit a big play or two, but it’ll be lower-scoring than what the market anticipates.
Verdict: Bet Under 46.5 (-115).
The Lions have never been a double-digit favorite during the Dan Campbell era. Their track record as a favorite of at least a touchdown in the past two seasons hasn’t been good either. They have been a favorite of seven-plus points five times and have covered twice. This includes losses to the Buccaneers in Week 2 of this season and to Green Bay on Thanksgiving last season.
Tennessee’s defense still has pretty solid underlying metrics, but the fact that Buffalo had no issues moving the ball at will for the final three quarters of their game raises some questions about the unit. The Titans defense played well against Caleb Williams, Tyler Huntley, and Joe Flacco, but Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen threw all over the secondary.
The Lions could overlook the Titans since this game falls between two divisional clashes, and I don’t trust the secondary enough to lay this big of a number. There doesn’t seem to be much the Titans can do to resurrect their offense though, and this game is a stay away.
Verdict: Pass.
I was fully prepared to bet on Tampa Bay as a short favorite in a revenge spot at home against Atlanta before the injury crisis hit the Buccaneers on Monday night. Tampa lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries, leaving uncertainty about what type of team it is now. While their running game has shown some improvement and their early-down pass offense is more efficient than it was last year, much of that success was due to the increased pass rate, with most passes going to Evans and Godwin.
The line before Monday night’s game was Tampa Bay -2.5, but it has now flipped, making Atlanta a 2.5-point road favorite. Given the recent struggles of the Buccaneers defense against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, it’s unlikely that many bettors will want to bet them in this matchup. Kirk Cousins was able to exploit the Buccaneers secondary in their Week 5 game, further raising concerns.
While Tampa Bay may be a good option for a teaser bet at home, I don’t find this game particularly appealing from a betting perspective unless the Bucs reach +3.
Verdict: Lean Bucs +2.5; need +3 to bet them.
The Chargers have come out of the bye week throwing the ball a lot more than they did in the first four weeks of the season. Pre-bye, the Chargers ranked fourth in first-half rush rate, but they have dropped to 25th in the past two weeks. The unleashing of Justin Herbert has led to positive outcomes for the offense as a whole. The Chargers scored only 15 points in their loss to Arizona on Monday night, in part because of red zone inefficiency and Jalen Reagor’s fumble into the end zone.
Herbert should have no issues throwing the ball against a Saints defense that has struggled with tackling and coverage in recent weeks. Denver managed to score 26 offensive points against this defense, and it could have been more if Bo Nix hadn’t missed some wide-open receivers. The week prior, Tampa Bay scored 51 points. The Saints have allowed 14 plays of 20-plus yards in the past two weeks.
The Saints offense will be getting healthier with the return of Chris Olave and improvements along the offensive line and in the skill group. New Orleans also has a significant rest advantage to prepare for this game. However, all indications suggest that the Chargers will move the ball more efficiently through the air and take advantage of an injured and struggling Saints defense. With Paulson Adebo out for this game and Marshon Lattimore’s status uncertain due to a hamstring injury, I believe the Chargers will score early in the game. There is a concern that they may become overly conservative in the second half if they have a lead against Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener.
Verdict: Bet Chargers first-half team total over 12.5 (-110).
The Seahawks’ 20-point win was one of the most misleading box scores of Week 7. Seattle won the game comfortably on the scoreboard, but the underlying statistics like total yards and yards per play were much closer.
Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is considered week-to-week with an MCL sprain, so odds are he will not be playing on Sunday as the Seahawks host the Bills. This will be a major test for new Seattle offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who has yet to find a way to scheme around the offensive line issues. Geno Smith has constantly been under duress this season, and it will be difficult to hit explosive plays against the Buffalo two-high shell defense without Metcalf.
The Seahawks are still among the league’s best at generating pressure defensively, and their run defense was considerably improved with the return of Byron Murphy II to the defensive line last week in the win against the Falcons. Generating pressure is a staple of the Mike Macdonald defense, and it will be a fun chess match between him and Josh Allen. This is the game I’m most excited to watch, but I’m in line with the market on the side and total.
Verdict: Pass
This is yet another game where Caleb Williams should shine, as he torched the Jaguars and Panthers secondaries without issue in the past few weeks. Marcus Mariota was one of the league’s most efficient passers in Week 7, but that had more to do with the fact that the Commanders were entering the game with a lead and facing one of the league’s worst defenses than some type of late-career Mariota renaissance. It’s a shame the NFL swapped this upcoming game into the afternoon window because Jayden Daniels’s likely absence due to an injury makes this game a lot less compelling to both watch and bet on.
Verdict: Pass.
From a narrative perspective, this seems like a potential smash spot for the Chiefs after the Raiders taunted them on Christmas as they upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They will likely use it as motivation to run up the score on a struggling Raiders squad.
The Raiders will likely be forced into the passing game, given just how little success they’ve had running the ball this year. The Chiefs run defense has improved significantly year over year and ranks eighth in EPA per rush allowed. With Chris Jones providing interior pressure, that feels like a recipe for Gardner Minshew turnovers.
When you consider their schedule of opponents, which includes Baltimore, San Francisco, and Cincinnati, you could argue that the Chiefs have been the league’s best defense through seven weeks. Minnesota is first in DVOA, but Kansas City isn’t far behind, in fourth.
Consider me skeptical that a midseason acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins will fix the Chiefs offense. They’re still lacking explosiveness with or without him.
Verdict: Pass.
Imagine telling someone before the season that the Broncos would be a nine-point favorite in an NFL game in Week 8. That’s maybe even crazier than the fact that the Commanders were a 10-point favorite against the Panthers in Week 7. The limit does not appear to exist for how far the betting markets will downgrade the 2024 Carolina Panthers, who are now forced to go back to Bryce Young after Andy Dalton injured his thumb in a car accident.
There are 42 quarterbacks who have played at least 40 plays in the NFL this season. Young is 42nd in EPA per play and success rate. That came in two games against the Saints and the Chargers, and now he faces one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no clear path to offense for Carolina in this game. The market moved from -8 to -10, and given that Denver has extra rest, laying points with the Broncos is still the only way I’d bet this game.
Verdict: Lean Broncos -10
To say the Niners are limping into this game with Dallas would be an understatement. George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Deebo Samuel all did not practice on Wednesday. Brandon Aiyuk has been ruled out for the season. Samuel wasn’t released from the hospital until Tuesday after battling pneumonia.
San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan’s scheme have historically dominated the Dallas defense under Dan Quinn in the past. But a lot has changed now. Not only do the Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator, but the 49ers offense looks a lot different. San Francisco is way less reliant on yards after the catch. Brock Purdy is holding the ball longer and being forced to throw downfield into tighter windows more often.
With the Cowboys likely getting DaRon Bland and Micah Parsons back from injury and entering this game off the bye week, that’s a good explanation as to why the market opened Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite before getting bet down to the current 4.5-point spread. I’ll be continuing to monitor the 49ers injury situation and looking to bet the under if two of the three key skill players remain out.
The 49ers defense has traditionally given fits to Dak Prescott and the Mike McCarthy offense throughout their regular season and playoff meetings.
Verdict: Lean Under 46.5
What a difference one half in football can make! Russell Wilson and the Steelers offense were booed off the field midway through the second quarter after the Jets forced them to punt. At that point, the Jets were headed toward a 15-6 halftime lead in Pittsburgh. A few Aaron Rodgers interceptions and some Wilson moon balls up to George Pickens later, and the Steelers rattled off 31 unanswered points to secure a dominant victory.
Alex Highsmith was back defensively in a limited fashion for Pittsburgh. If the Giants couldn’t block the Eagles front last Sunday, I’m not optimistic about how the Giants offensive line will hold up against the Pittsburgh front without left tackle Andrew Thomas. Highsmith should be more of a full-go, and while T.J. Watt rightfully attracts all the attention on that defensive line, Highsmith is an underrated pass rusher.
I have major doubts about the sustainability of the Wilson go-ball offense. He didn’t take many sacks, but the Giants and Steelers have the potential to play a pretty regrettable Monday night game.
Verdict: Lean Under 36.5 (-110)
Bets from this article made for Week 8:
Rams +3 (-110)
Jaguars +4.5 (-110)
Browns +9 (-110)
Texans/Colts Under 46 (-110)
Jets/Patriots Over 41.5 (-110)
Chargers First-Half Team Total Over 12.5 (-110)
