After a second straight poor week for my bets in this column, I’ve contemplated going full George Costanza. George believed that the outcomes in his life might be better if he went against everything his gut told him to do, and a couple of bad weeks in a row betting on this sport with the oblong ball can leave you wondering whether you actually know anything you think you know. It’s important in times like these to trust your process and believe that better days are ahead.
Only two teams—Dallas and Chicago—are on the bye in Week 7, which means we have a nearly full NFL slate. There are four matchups this weekend between two teams ranked in the top 11 in early-down explosive play rate:
Here are my thoughts on all 15 games, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.
The Saints scored 27 points in Spencer Rattler’s debut on Sunday, but that was heavily aided by excellent field position and non-offensive touchdowns. Rashid Shaheed returned a punt for a touchdown, and the Saints intercepted Baker Mayfield twice deep in Tampa territory to set up a 17-yard field goal drive and a 10-yard touchdown drive, accounting for 17 of the Saints’ 27 points.
New Orleans finished the week 25th in offensive success rate overall and 24th in pass success rate out of the 28 teams who played in Week 6. The Saints lost Chris Olave to a concussion and Shaheed to a “concerning” knee injury, so it seems highly unlikely that either will play this week. With starting center Erik McCoy already on injured reserve, both backup center Lucas Patrick and guard Cesar Ruiz are fighting to play on Thursday. Rattler’s ability to scramble and extend plays created some offense for the Saints, but five sacks, two interceptions, and a 55 percent completion rate at 6.1 yards per attempt won’t cut it against one of the league’s better defenses.
Bo Nix couldn’t move the ball successfully against the Chargers defense until the game was already 23-0 in favor of the Chargers. The Broncos offense remains limited, but they still have a top-seven defense by DVOA. Justin Herbert’s absurd third-down efficiency masked an otherwise quality defensive performance from the Broncos. Only the Colts had a worse early-down success rate in Week 6 than the Chargers.
Given the injury situation in New Orleans on a short week, it’s unclear how the Saints will score. The market shifted from an essential pick’em to Denver as a short favorite. Instead of backing Nix on the road as a favorite on a short week, I’m targeting the Saints team total.
Verdict: Bet Saints team total under 17.5 (-118).
Only the Colts and Cowboys have attempted more passes at least 15 yards downfield through six weeks than the Jaguars. Despite its issues with drops and miscues in the red zone, the Jaguars offense ranks 14th in success rate and 13th in expected points added per play. It is capable of moving the ball against the Patriots.
The contrast between Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett in variance and explosive swing plays is massive. First, Maye is far more likely than Brissett to turn the ball over. Brissett is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the lowest interception rate in NFL history because he tends to avoid risky throws downfield. The Patriots showed improvement in their passing game on Sunday, with four pass plays of 20-plus yards, which is more than they had in any other game this season. They scored 21 points against a solid Houston defense and should be able to put up points against a Jacksonville defense that has struggled with tackling and preventing big plays all season.
Both Jacksonville and New England rank in the bottom nine in EPA per drive allowed. Due to Maye’s higher variance as a quarterback compared to Brissett, the market hasn’t properly adjusted the Patriots’ totals.
Verdict: Bet over 42.5 (-115).
The value a running back can bring to an offense in the year 2024 can often be overstated, but the Colts’ early-down rush offense ranked third in the NFL by EPA per rush in the first five weeks of the season with Jonathan Taylor. The run game dropped to 24th out of 28 in Week 6 with Trey Sermon as the lead back. While the Titans presented a solid defensive front, the Colts’ early-down numbers suggest that they really need Taylor back in the lineup this week to be more sustainable offensively.
For the second consecutive week, the Colts will be facing a team coming off a bye week. The market initially favored the Colts by four points, but after some Miami money moved the line, they are now favored by just three. Anthony Richardson is expected to start at quarterback for the Colts. I am inclined to lean toward the over in every Colts game immediately, given the high variance of their quarterbacks and the fast pace at which they play. However, predicting Miami’s offense coming out of the bye is challenging. Will Mike McDaniel introduce new strategies, or are the Dolphins just hoping to stay afloat until Tua Tagovailoa returns to the lineup? De’Von Achane may return this week to provide a spark to the offense, but Tyler Huntley ranks 38th in success rate out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 40 plays.
Verdict: Pass.
Seattle enters this game with some much-needed extra rest following its Thursday loss to San Francisco. The injury report remains very uncertain as of Tuesday, making this a difficult game to predict. Mike Macdonald suggested that rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II would return for Week 7 to help bolster the run defense, and Seattle hopes Riq Woolen will make a return to the lineup at corner. Julian Love and Boye Mafe seemed to play through injuries against the 49ers and now have extra time to recover.
The Seahawks’ biggest issue on offense is the quality of the line play, but that won’t be severely tested by an Atlanta defense that ranks among the league’s six worst in pass rush win rate. This sets up a good spot for the Seahawks with the extra rest, making them the only side I would bet on here. It’s best to wait until we receive more injury news before making a decision on this game.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks +3.
Almost every quarterback who has faced the Colts has managed to tear apart their secondary. Here’s the weekly yards per attempt report against Indianapolis:
| Player | Yards per Attempt |
|---|---|
| Player | Yards per Attempt |
| C.J. Stroud | 7.3 |
| Malik Willis | 8.7 |
| Caleb Williams | 7.0 |
| Justin Fields | 9.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10.9 |
| Will Levis | 3.5 |
One of those numbers is not like the others, and I’m not sure Will Levis will get much better on Sunday against Buffalo. Levis didn’t have the comical interception or fumble that went viral on social media in Week 6, but that game quietly featured his worst play-to-play performance of the season. The offense made a point to try to get Calvin Ridley more involved, and he had eight targets with zero receptions.
It’s a shame the Titans are wasting what is actually a pretty good defense overall. The Titans are first in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed, so the under is the only way I could look for this game. There won’t be enough passing efficiency, and both teams will want to run the ball given the Bills’ offensive philosophy under Joe Brady and the Titans’ offensive limitations with Levis. Buffalo remains top five in rush percentage in the NFL.
Verdict: Lean under 41.5.
Despite the flaws of this Bengals defense, one statistic stands out: Cincinnati is ranked third best in the league in explosive play rate allowed. This means they force teams to be methodical and consistently execute against them. Lou Anarumo’s defense has faced tough opponents such as Washington, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Carolina, all of whom are strong at running the ball. Cincinnati’s defense struggled in those games, and the team managed to win only one of the four matchups.
Cleveland’s offense is currently unable to be precise or methodical. The Browns have a 59 percent series success rate, which is 3 percentage points worse than every other team in the NFL. With Deshaun Watson’s inefficiency as an NFL starter and the trade of top wide receiver Amari Cooper, the Browns offense will struggle. Betting against Watson and the Cleveland offense comes at a premium, but it’s unclear where the bottom is, and I have no real interest in finding out.
Verdict: Pass.
The Packers have 30 plays of at least 20 yards gained, which ranks second in the league. Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love excel at putting pressure on opposing defenses with the sheer volume of pass catchers they have available. Even if Dontayvion Wicks is week to week with an injury, the Packers have three capable and proven wideouts, plus the emergence of tight end Tucker Kraft, to buoy the offense. Green Bay has been a bit boom or bust offensively, and last week serves as the boom case for what this offense looks like when it converts on consistent chunk plays. Green Bay needed its offensive line to hold up to reach its offensive ceiling this season, and sure enough, the Packers rank first in PFF pass block grades. The pass block win rate numbers are somewhat less rosy (13th), but if you can hold up against the Texans’ excellent pass rush, then you can absolutely hit big plays on this secondary.
With two teams that rank in the top six in explosive play rate and solid weather in the forecast for Sunday, it would be hard for me to bet on the under. Neither of these offenses has an excellent success rate on early downs, but these two quarterbacks don’t seem to care much.
Verdict: Lean over 47.5.
The emergence of Jameson Williams as a blitz beater and explosive playmaker has made it extremely difficult to stop the Lions offense. Detroit initially struggled with red zone execution early in the season, but Jared Goff boasts a 70.7 percent completion rate and 12.1 yards per attempt when blitzed this season. Minnesota applies pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL. While the Vikings defense is considerably improved from last year, Ben Johnson and Goff had no trouble dissecting Brian Flores and the Vikings last season.
The Vikings are in an ideal situation coming off the bye, and my main concerns about the Detroit secondary will be put to the test in this game. Without Aidan Hutchinson wreaking havoc on Minnesota’s offense, Sam Darnold should have time to sit in the pocket and move the ball against the Lions’ defensive backs. Expect numerous defensive penalties on the Lions and blitz beaters from Johnson and Goff as both teams score over 25 points in what promises to be a thrilling Sunday matchup.
Verdict: Bet over 49.5 (-110).
The final box score looked mostly fine for the Eagles in their win against the Browns on Sunday, but the Philadelphia offense still doesn’t pass the sniff test. Kellen Moore was supposed to bring in new concepts as the offensive coordinator, but it’s alarming how much the 2024 Eagles look like the 2023 Eagles on that side of the ball. Through five weeks, the Eagles have a negative point differential, they don’t use the middle of the field in the passing game, and there are questions about Jalen Hurts’s efficiency as a runner.
Philadelphia has been quite healthy defensively this season, and that unit ranks 26th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA per drive. The market has started to notice that even when healthy, the Eagles don’t look like a top-five offense, which they need to be to justify their position as one of the contenders in the NFC given their shaky defensive metrics.
Now, with left tackle Jordan Mailata out for multiple weeks, one of the Eagles’ strongest all-around units takes a hit. The Giants defense looks to be a seriously underrated unit following their back-to-back performances against the Seahawks and Bengals. They’ve played a difficult schedule of opposing offenses so far but are tied for eighth in series success rate allowed.
New York will struggle to replace its own injured left tackle, Andrew Thomas, but Malik Nabers’s likely return adds another dimension to the offense, and anything +3 or better is good enough for me to bet on the Giants at home.
Verdict: Bet Giants +3 (-115).
The market opened this line with the Rams at -5.5, and there has been a consistent flow of money to the Rams leading into Tuesday night. This trend appears to be a reaction to the Davante Adams trade, but considering Adams has not played for the Raiders for half of this season, it’s unclear whether it should really impact the market here. The Rams have faced tough opposing quarterbacks so far, and a matchup against Aidan O’Connell presents a much friendlier one for the Rams’ much-maligned defense.
It would surprise many to learn that despite numerous injuries, the Rams are among the top five in offensive success rate and have ranked inside the top 10 for four weeks. Betting against the Raiders comes at a premium, but given the uncertain situation with head coach Antonio Pierce’s and O’Connell’s struggles last week, I have no interest in supporting the Raiders in any way.
Verdict: Pass.
Carolina has allowed at least 34 points in each of the past three games, and now the Panthers face an offense that ranks first in the NFL in series success rate. Washington has been impressively methodical all year long, while Carolina has offered basically zero resistance or pass rush in that same span. The scary thing about laying more than a touchdown with the Commanders here is that there are many paths for Carolina to move the football. Not only did Washington lose critical defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to an injury for the season, but the Panthers’ offensive line held up yet again last week.
Given that the Commanders defense allows a ton of big plays and the back door will always be open, betting on Washington as a favorite by over a touchdown is a pass for me. There’s a strong case for betting on the over, but all of the value was bet out of the line as the total was pushed above 50.
Verdict: Pass.
The 49ers were two-point favorites in the Super Bowl on a neutral site back in February. Now, they sit as 1.5-point home favorites, and both teams are entering this game with extra rest. Kansas City had its best offensive performance of the season by EPA per drive in the Week 5 win against the Saints before heading into the bye. However, the Chiefs’ lack of explosiveness on offense serves as a major red flag against San Francisco.
The Chiefs have been one of the most methodical offenses all season, combining a high success rate with a low explosive play rate. One key difference between this season and last is how much the defense has improved against the run. Kansas City faced multiple solid rushing offenses—most notably Baltimore and New Orleans—and largely slowed down both of them.
At the end of the day, Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career, the 49ers special teams remain a question mark, and I trust Steve Spagnuolo more than Niners defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen to make crucial in-game adjustments.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs +1.5.
The Jets’ acquisition of Davante Adams will likely make them a popular choice this week, especially with the Steelers appearing to switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson. At this stage in Wilson’s career, it’s challenging to argue for his performance considering the problems Pittsburgh faces with its offensive line. The betting market initially favored the Steelers on Monday morning, but by Tuesday afternoon, they had become the underdogs. It remains uncertain whether Adams will be able to play this Sunday as he continues to recover from his hamstring injury.
In my opinion, Pittsburgh’s defense is slightly overvalued going into this game. The key question is whether the Jets’ offensive line can withstand the consistent pressure from Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense struggled to stop Dallas from methodically moving the ball down the field in their previous matchup, and right now, the Jets present a similar offensive challenge. Both the Jets and Cowboys lack depth in skill positions beyond one receiver, which limits their explosiveness and forces them to rely heavily on the accuracy and intelligence of exceptional pocket passers to drive their offenses.
With the uncertainty surrounding Pittsburgh, especially with Wilson coming back from an injury and the concerns about his limitations raised by Mike Tomlin, I would lean toward betting on the Jets in this scenario. I will hold off on making a decision until Adams’s status is confirmed. Adding him to the mix would make this the toughest offense Pittsburgh has faced all season.
Verdict: Lean Jets -1.5.
Tampa Bay had one of the least efficient early-down offenses in the NFL last year and ranked 29th in success rate. The Buccaneers relied too much on Baker Mayfield magic on high-leverage late downs and wouldn’t be able to sustain that this season. So Tampa went out and became one of the league’s most efficient all-around offenses in 2024. Tampa is fourth in early-down offensive success rate and has found a semblance of a run game with the emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving. Tampa is much more balanced this season, ranking ninth in passing and 10th in rushing DVOA.
The total for this game opened at 50.5 and was bet down to 48.5, but I’m not sure I agree with that market move. These are two offenses capable of generating a ton of big plays, with both ranked in the top five in explosive play rate on first and second down.
The Buccaneers defense performed considerably better on Sunday against Spencer Rattler and is trending toward better health, but it’s hard to make much of an adjustment for that unit given the quality of the opponent. The Buccaneers have faced multiple rookies and backups thus far in 2024. My colleague Sheil Kapadia wrote about how Lamar Jackson is playing at an even higher level than he did during his MVP season, and both secondaries have real questions about their coverage units.
Verdict: Bet over 48.5 (-110).
The line has been fluctuating between 2.5 and 3 here for most of the early week. The Chargers defense grades extremely well in every metric—DVOA, EPA, and series success rate—but their opposing schedule of offenses has been quite mediocre. They’ve faced Justin Fields, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew, and Patrick Mahomes. Only Nix and Mahomes are still likely starting for their respective teams, and the Chargers faced Mahomes in the game in which Kansas City lost Rashee Rice in the first quarter.
Arizona offers very little defensive resistance, but despite that, there are real questions about this Chargers offense for me. Justin Herbert’s absurd third-down efficiency helped mask an otherwise mediocre performance from the Chargers. Only the Colts had a worse early-down success rate in Week 6.
The status of Marvin Harrison Jr. is key for this game, and I’d lean Cardinals at +3 if he’s able to play. Without him, I’ll probably pass.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals +3 or better.
Bets from this article made for Week 7:
Saints team total under 17.5 (-105)
Patriots-Jaguars over 42.5 (-115)
Giants +3 vs. Eagles (-105)
Lions-Vikings over 49.5 (-110)
Ravens-Buccaneers over 48 (-110)
Titans-Bills under 41.5 (-110)
