Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders have crashed the NFL’s party this season, challenging the league’s elite. For most of the second half of the season, the betting markets had five teams in one tier: the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Eagles, and Lions. Three of those teams have made it to the conference championship weekend … plus the Commanders.
The team has already made history this season, and it’ll have a chance to make a little more on Sunday. No rookie quarterback has ever started in the Super Bowl.
Of the two matchups this weekend, the NFC game features the less familiar pairing. Washington has a new coaching staff and quarterback this year. These two teams did play twice in the regular season, but the circumstances behind both matchups set those games apart from this Sunday. The Eagles won 26-18 in the first meeting at home on Thursday Night Football on November 14, but it was a short week, and Jayden Daniels was playing through an injury to his ribs that game. He said after the game that the injury didn’t affect him, but the injury does coincide with his worst stretch of play all season. The Commanders got revenge at home on December 22 in a dramatic 36-33 win, but Jalen Hurts left the game early due to a concussion, and Washington scored 22 fourth-quarter points for the comeback.
In the AFC, this will be the ninth meeting of Josh Allen/Sean McDermott and Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid (4-4 head-to-head). The peripheral pieces of the game may change, but at its core, we’ve seen this game before. This is also the fourth playoff meeting between the Bills and Chiefs in the past five years (the Chiefs lead 3-0). For context, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning played against each other only five times in their playoff careers.
Here are my thoughts on both conference championship games, including some prop, spread, and total bets I’ve made. All lines are from FanDuel as of Friday morning.
Saquon Barkley broke off multiple long touchdown runs to help the Eagles win their divisional-round game against the Rams. His explosive 62- and 78-yard plays on Sunday were foreshadowed by his two 70-plus-yard touchdowns in Philly’s regular-season meeting with the Rams.
If history repeats itself, on paper, this will be another excellent matchup for Barkley and the Eagles’ run game to hit some home runs. When you’re as good as the Eagles’ run offense, there’s no such thing as a bad matchup. Plus, the Commanders were particularly vulnerable to explosive runs this season. They ranked 24th in explosive run play percentage allowed, 26th in DVOA run defense, and 27th in rushing success rate allowed. Even though they lost, the Lions ran 23 times for 201 yards against Washington on Saturday night.
In the Eagles’ first meeting with the Commanders, Barkley broke off two touchdown runs, of 23 and 39 yards, in the fourth quarter to secure a victory in a previously close game. In the second meeting, Barkley took a first-quarter handoff from Kenny Pickett 68 yards to the house. It seems inevitable that Barkley will have a 25-plus-yard carry or two.
The Eagles have relied on explosive runs because the passing offense has been historically mediocre in comparison to past winning playoff teams. Through two weeks, Hurts has a negative expected points added per dropback. Additionally, there are injury concerns for Hurts after he limped off the field following a knee injury in the divisional round, which might level the playing field a bit. If Hurts isn’t effective as a runner and scrambler, the Eagles will lose a vital aspect of their offense. We won’t know until we see him take the field on Sunday.
The Eagles have advantages in roster talent and statistical metrics across the board. The Commanders defense had played more man coverage than zone on third downs during the regular season, but it shifted to more zone on third down against the Lions in the divisional round; given how much the Lions dominated man coverage, this shift forced Jared Goff into a few mistakes. It would also be wise to play more zone against the Eagles this Sunday. The Eagles offense ranks 15th in EPA per dropback against zone and second against man this season.
Another potential equalizer is the historic production from Daniels as both a runner and passer. It’s a small sample, but Daniels has the highest EPA per dropback of any quarterback in the playoffs since at least 2005.
He has 22 big-time throws and 12 turnover-worthy plays over this entire season, giving him a 1.7 percent turnover-worthy play rate, tied for the third lowest among all regular starters, behind only Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.
Daniels faces a much tougher defense this week (the Eagles’ group is first in DVOA) than he did in either of his first two playoff games. If the constant pressure and blitzes from Todd Bowles’s and Aaron Glenn’s defenses didn’t rattle him, it’s not clear what will rattle this remarkable rookie. One red flag is the injury to guard Sam Cosmi. Cosmi’s ACL tear in the divisional round leaves the Commanders shorthanded in trying to block Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Carter’s fourth-quarter sack and pressure on the Rams’ final drive saved the Eagles from a likely defeat in the final seconds.
Vic Fangio’s defense is designed to make teams move the ball down the field slowly. No one is better at taking away explosives than the Eagles. However, Washington is comfortable using all four downs and being extremely methodical. The Commanders finished the regular season fifth in offensive success rate. The more the Commanders can use long scoring drives, the harder it will be for the Eagles to generate a margin.
Washington was totally unable to run the ball in its last meeting with the Eagles. Its running backs finished the game with 15 carries for 32 yards, and Brian Robinson Jr. fumbled twice. The Commanders somehow won the game despite committing five turnovers because of a DeVonta Smith drop in the final minutes and a Daniels game-winning drive.
Regarding props: The Commanders had major issues covering tight ends this season, ranking 26th in DVOA against that position group. Dallas Goedert didn’t play in the last meeting against the Commanders, but he could become an even bigger factor in the underneath passing game if the Eagles prioritize quicker throws and checkdowns due to Hurts’s injury. Goedert leads the Eagles in receptions, targets, and yards in the playoffs and even had a big screen pass against the Rams (which was then called back due to a penalty). Books haven’t posted any Kenneth Gainwell props for receiving yards, but he could be featured in the passing game more as a result of a potential Hurts injury.
The Commanders’ fourth-down variance makes betting on any of their games an adventure, but I’ll continue to ride the Daniels magic carpet on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Commanders +6.5 and team total over 20.5 (-110).
Props: Dallas Goedert over 39.5 receiving yards (-114), Saquon Barkley longest rush over 23.5 yards (-115)
There isn’t much new to say about this matchup. The context has changed from last year, when Buffalo was favored by three points at home, and the Chiefs appeared vulnerable in 2023. Now, with the Chiefs as two-time defending champions back at home, we tend to overlook any regular-season struggles and trust that Mahomes, Reid, Travis Kelce, and Steve Spagnuolo will bring their best in January and February.
Let’s analyze the basics of the matchup. Allen had the fewest turnovers of his career this season and avoided the high-profile errors that plagued him in the past. Kudos to both Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady for reining in his aggression and sharpening his decision-making. We’re splitting hairs here in a matchup this close and of this magnitude, but these details matter.
McDermott has struggled against Mahomes and the Chiefs when it has mattered most, like many others. You might succeed on first and second down, but Mahomes is the best quarterback on third-and-7 or more in the past seven years by a significant margin. Last year, despite Kansas City’s offensive struggles in December, the Chiefs managed to score 27 points and average 7.7 yards per play against Buffalo in January.
Buffalo’s defense heavily relies on forcing turnovers to succeed. This strategy may not be as effective against Mahomes and Reid.
If you include all games played this season, the Bills defense ranks 11th in EPA per play allowed. However, if you remove turnovers from the sample, the defense drops to 27th. By dropback EPA allowed, Buffalo falls to 30th once turnovers are removed. It’s the weakest unit among the four primary ones on the field.
I bet on Buffalo last week as a small underdog because Allen was the more reliable quarterback playing at home, and I thought Buffalo’s defense could hold up well enough in the run game. However, other than those costly mistakes from Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, Baltimore dominated the underlying box score. The Ravens had 7.3 (!) yards per play.
Now, there are some injury concerns in Buffalo. Taylor Rapp, Matt Milano, and Christian Benford are all on the injury report. These players are key defenders at multiple levels of a unit that has been inconsistent all season long.
The Kansas City defense is not above criticism either. C.J. Stroud took a number of sacks in the divisional round, as expected, but the Texans were absolutely able to move the ball on this secondary despite a mediocre group of receiving options. The Chiefs defense has Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie available as its top two corners, but the pass defense currently remains the biggest issue facing the team. Spagnuolo excels at bringing pressure and forcing mistakes, but Allen is the league’s best at avoiding sacks, and his scrambling ability can nullify some of this.
In the divisional round, the Chiefs struggled offensively, but it was more of a testament to the Texans’ elite defense. Houston finished the season first in success rate allowed.
If both quarterbacks are playing at the peaks of their powers, the total points in this game may be too low. The Bills defense is vulnerable over the middle, while the Chiefs’ pass defense has regressed compared to last year. The previous three playoff meetings between these teams have all gone over the 48.5 total. I especially like points in the first half, mainly because the scoring in Chiefs games has a trend of slowing down considerably in the second half. Second-half unders are 29-10 in the past two years of Kansas City games.
As for props: The Chiefs basically ignored DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown in last week’s game against Houston, which may have more to do with how good the corners in Houston were. Buffalo’s corners are good but not elite. Either way, the path to offense for the Chiefs once again runs through the middle of the Buffalo defense. I expect plenty of Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. Don’t be surprised if Noah Gray is involved in the passing game more than sportsbooks expect with his yardage props.
When it comes to the Bills, they unleash Allen as a runner in crucial games and in red zone situations. If you look at the Bills’ high-leverage matches toward the end of the season, he scored almost every game. He scored against the Chiefs, 49ers (division clincher), Lions (twice), Rams (three times), and Ravens (twice).
If I had to pick a side in this one, I’d still trust the Chiefs defense more to get stops. Their special teams are less likely to screw up, and they are at home. The Chiefs were my not-so-bold preseason and pre-playoff pick to win the AFC, and I’ll stand by them here.
Verdict: Bet over 24.5 first half (-110) and over 48.5 points (-110).
Prop: Josh Allen anytime touchdown (-110)
Bets from this article made for conference championship Sunday:
Commanders team total over 20.5 (-110)
Bills-Chiefs over 24.5 first half (-110)
Bills-Chiefs over 48.5 points (-110)
Props:
Dallas Goedert over 39.5 receiving yards (-114)
Saquon Barkley longest rush over 23.5 yards (-115)
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-110)
Picks against the spread for contests:
Commanders +6.5
Chiefs -1.5
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on ‘The Ringer Gambling Show,’ mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on ‘The Ringer’s Philly Special.’ Also: Go Orange.
