Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season features a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, and we’ll see two No. 1 NFL draft picks in action. First, Baker Mayfield‘s Buccaneers host the Ravens (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Then Kyler Murray‘s Cardinals try to get on track against the Chargers (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
I’ve been scouting the draft since 1979, which means I’ve evaluated 46 No. 1 picks, from Tom Cousineau to Caleb Williams. Some have been absolute home runs, some have been big-time letdowns and some are still making their cases. But how do they all compare against each other?
Based on the pick itself and what the player ultimately provided for the team that drafted him, I stacked and tiered every No. 1 selection going back to 1979. I broke them out from the elites to the busts, and while it’s not a 1 to 46 ranking, I did try to slot them appropriately within each tier. I have separate groupings for the four picks who never played for their draft team and the three most recent top selections. It wasn’t fair to include them with the rest. I wove in my original evaluations plus what we saw once each player made it the NFL.
Let’s start with the four best No. 1 picks since I started covering the draft.
Jump to a tier:
Elite picks | True stars | Solid starters
Up-and-down careers | Just OK
Disappointments | Asterisks | Too soon to tell
The NFL was truly split between Manning and Washington State’s Ryan Leaf, and I had matching 9.7 grades on them. I did rank Manning as the class’ top QB, though, and Indy ultimately made the right call. He went on to a Super Bowl title, five MVPs and a trip to Canton. His NFL-ready frame, underrated arm and ability to avoid pass-rush pressure made him a terrific prospect, and it’s no surprise he sits third in career passing yards (71,940) and touchdown passes (539) over 17 seasons. In my eyes, he’s the best No. 1 pick in the time I’ve been doing this.
I had two players on the cover of my evaluations book in 1985: Smith and guard Bill Fralic. Smith was my clear No. 1 guy, earning a 9.9 grade. I called him a “ferocious man-eater” in my evaluation; he played with a mean streak. He was relentlessly disruptive with the great reach and burst to make plays all over the field.
A Hall of Famer and eight-time first-team All-Pro, Smith is still No. 1 in the NFL in career sacks (200).
Aikman, who earned a 9.6 grade from me, had perhaps the quickest release and most accurate precision passing I had seen in a quarterback prospect up until that point. Despite some underthrows on tape, his arm strength was above average. His mobility was a plus, too. The only real knock was a relative lack of experience.
I wrote at the time that Aikman was “capable of converting a cellar-dweller into a contender,” and that’s what the Hall of Famer did. Dallas went from 3-13 in 1988 to three Super Bowl titles over the next seven seasons.
It’s rare for an offensive lineman to go No. 1, but Pace was elite as a prospect (9.8 grade) and elite as an NFL player (seven Pro Bowls). His tape was pancake block after pancake block; I think there was one game where he had 10 of them. Pace dominated down to down, and he proved durable over 13 years in the pros, 12 of which came in St. Louis. He went to the Hall of Fame in 2016.
Garrett was explosive coming out of Texas A&M — he ran a 4.64 in the 40-yard dash at the combine — and his bend might be the lowest I have ever seen. He looked like a speedskater turning the corner on tape, basically touching the ground. Garrett could beat you with speed or power, and nothing has changed through eight NFL seasons. He always seemed like a future double-digit sack guy, and he has been at 10-plus in every season since his rookie year, when he had seven.
And for those of you wondering how we could rank the Garrett pick this high when the 2017 class also included Patrick Mahomes, we’re not using that much hindsight here. The Browns made the right call based on what we knew at the time, and Garrett has been nothing short of amazing for them.
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Chris Canty calls for Browns to trade Myles Garrett
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My buddy Todd McShay and I had some spirited debates about the 2009 quarterback class. I was a Stafford fan, but Todd liked Mark Sanchez more. I won this one (even though he got me on the Jimmy Clausen/Sam Bradford argument the following year).
I thought Stafford would be a No. 1 pick before he even went to Georgia. He had the full package as a prospect, including a really powerful arm. And sure, he had to leave Detroit to get his Super Bowl title, but he had some really good seasons with the Lions before that 2021 trade. He was especially amazing in the 2011 season, when he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns.
Burrow went from fifth- or sixth-rounder to consensus No. 1 overall pick over the course of a tremendous final season at LSU. There were some good quarterbacks in this class, too — Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, even Jalen Hurts a little down the board. But Burrow was the guy. He never had an off game in college and was one of the more competitive QB prospects I ever evaluated.
And Burrow has already done enough to slot in high here, despite just 58 career games to his résumé. His 68.3% completion rate ranks first since 2020, and he brought the Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second season.
Prospects like Luck don’t come around often. Some folks saw Robert Griffin as the better player, but Luck was my highest-graded QB prospect since John Elway (9.8). He came into the NFL with special accuracy, an ideal frame and great processing ability. Expectations were through the roof, but he had the makeup to handle the hype. And while Luck retired before the 2019 season (and missed the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury), he displayed his franchise-altering talent throughout his career, going to four Pro Bowls.
My final 2011 Big Board had cornerback Patrick Peterson and edge rusher Von Miller leading the way, but Newton was first off the board after a huge final college season at Auburn. He lifted the Tigers to a national title, displaying arm talent and a quick release. I noted in my report that he still had to work on managing the pocket and improving accuracy, but there was no question that his upside could do the same for an NFL team that it did for Auburn.
In 2015, the dual threat won MVP and took the Panthers to the Super Bowl.
Just as Newton did at Auburn, Vick elevated a middling Virginia Tech team. I thought he still had to develop more touch on his passing, but his dual-threat traits were incredible. And he was the clear No. 1 prospect in the class (Drew Brees was a second-rounder that year).
In six seasons in Atlanta, he threw 71 touchdown passes, ran for 21 more scores and went to three Pro Bowls. (Vick was suspended over the 2007-08 seasons for his role in a dogfighting ring before returning with the Eagles in 2009.)
On the morning of the 1993 draft, there was still some mystery around the No. 1 pick. Bledsoe and Rick Mirer were both in the mix. The Patriots got it right; Bledsoe was No. 1 on my Big Board, while Mirer was 30th.
I love Bledsoe. He could see the whole field, threw with great accuracy and had probably the best arm strength since Elway. He just had raw physical talent. And while he got overshadowed in New England by the man who replaced him, Bledsoe put together some really strong seasons with the Patriots, taking them to the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade in his second year.
Sims played only five NFL seasons because of knee problems, but he averaged almost 120 scrimmage yards per game. He was so fun to watch and seemed to have everything pro teams wanted in their running backs at the time. Sims edged Anthony Munoz in my final rankings for the 1980 class (9.7 grade) after displaying explosion and elusiveness in Oklahoma’s wishbone offense. He was fearless, too, going up and over the top of the pile to pick up crucial first downs.
It’s a different era now, and a running back going even in the top 10 is rare, let alone first overall. But the Lions landed a serious playmaker that year.
Carson Wentz had the stronger arm, but Goff had the benefit of better competition in his evaluation and displayed really good ball placement at Cal. If given enough time, he could pick apart a defense. He finished fifth on my Big Board, and I wrote this at the time: “Goff is the most gifted passer in this draft class when you add up all the tools it takes to succeed at the position.”
Goff didn’t last in Los Angeles, traded along with three draft picks for Stafford in 2021. But let’s not forget he took the Rams to a Super Bowl in 2018 after throwing 32 touchdowns during the regular season.
I had running back Reggie Bush ranked over Williams, and there was a big debate right up until the week of the draft over who the Texans should pick. I thought Houston needed a playmaker on offense, but considering Peyton Manning was in that division, landing a defensive star made sense. Williams justified the selection over his career.
At his best, he was unstoppable. I compared him to Julius Peppers in my evaluations, and he broke through with 14 sacks in his second pro season.
I had linebacker Wilber Marshall ahead of Fryar on my board, but both players had the same exact 9.7 grade. Fryar was a worthy No. 1 pick that year. He was strong, explosive and versatile. He finished his NFL career with 12,785 receiving yards and 84 TD catches, and he averaged 15 yards per catch over those 17 seasons.
There weren’t really any elite players in that 2008 class, which is how we ended up with an offensive tackle going No. 1. I thought quarterback Matt Ryan might be the pick. But the Dolphins were high on Chad Henne and basically decided they could take Long at No. 1 and still get Henne in Round 2, rather than take Ryan and get a lesser player at another position on the second day. It was a mistake.
Long turned into a very good pro. I thought he might be a better fit at right tackle when he was coming out of Michigan, but he took the next step as a pass blocker in his final college season. Long ended up starting 99 games in the NFL and went to four Pro Bowls during his time in Miami.
If you had to create the perfect NFL pocket passer prospect, it would be Palmer. He had Aikman-esque arm strength, underrated mobility, physicality and really no red flags in his evaluation. I noted in my report that year that Palmer produced despite a tough schedule at USC; the Trojans played 11 bowl-caliber teams in his last season there. He became a solid starter in the pros, even throwing 32 touchdowns in his second season.
Johnson went back to school for another season despite getting top-10 buzz in 1995, and I remember talking to him about it at the time. He told me he didn’t want to be a top-10 pick. He wanted to be the No. 1 pick. After more than 1,200 yards in that final season at USC, he got his wish.
In 1996, Johnson earned a 9.7 grade from me and was on the cover of my predraft book. He had the size, hands and ability to separate to be an instant factor in the NFL. He had at least 800 receiving yards in 10 of his 11 seasons.
Maryland came on late. He wasn’t really recruited out of high school, and though he came to Miami at 325 pounds, he played at a much lighter 275 for the Hurricanes. But his on-field energy, strength, pursuit skills and ability to locate the ball quickly all made him a solid prospect. Maryland would cave in offensive lines with his low charge.
He helped Dallas to three Super Bowls and was a true presence in the middle of the defensive line for 10 pro seasons (five with the Cowboys).
I ranked Murray sixth in the class, and he was the top quarterback on my board. I thought he had a lot of upside with Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. Kingsbury is no longer there, but Murray continues to display the dynamic traits that made him the No. 1 pick. He’s eighth in QBR this season (65.9), and his underrated arm has helped him to 102 TD passes and a 66.8% completion rate over six seasons. His running ability is well-known — he has averaged 6.0 yards per rush during his career.
Murray was the best QB in that 2019 class, but I remember saying at the time he should send a “thank you” to Russell Wilson. They were similar as prospects, and Wilson’s success over the previous few years helped lessen the concern over Murray’s 5-foot-10 frame.
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Rogers had fullback-level strength at 220 pounds but the speed and quickness of a tailback. I saw vision, balance and cutback ability on the tape. He could spin off tacklers with ease and never seemed to be knocked back. It all added up to a 9.7 grade. And the Saints’ decision to take him first overall paid off immediately. Rogers led the NFL in rushing in Year 1 with 1,674 yards. He would win a Super Bowl in Washington later in his career but retired after seven seasons due to injuries.
On my final 2021 Big Board, I wrote, “He can be a superstar.” Lawrence had it all at Clemson. Despite the $275 million deal, we haven’t seen that level of play just yet in the NFL, though. I’m not ready to give up hope he can become a top-tier quarterback, but it’s concerning that Lawrence ranks 22nd in QBR since being drafted (51.4). It would help if Jacksonville improved the supporting cast.
There was no question Clowney was the top prospect. It was clear. He always looked like he was shot out of a cannon when he got after quarterbacks and running backs in the backfield. In the pros, Clowney has been an effective edge rusher, but his career has been hampered by injuries. He has never reached double-digit sacks, though 2023 was his fourth season with at least nine. His 22.9% pass rush win rate is ninth in the NFL this season.
I was all over Josh Allen in 2018, and Mayfield going No. 1 surprised me. Everyone thought it was going to be Allen or Sam Darnold until the final 24 hours before the draft, when buzz came out about Cleveland liking Mayfield. He was my fourth-ranked passer in the class at No. 12 overall, but his skill set did fit well with the Browns. His toughness was evident, and he could make every throw.
There was a period of time when he looked like the Browns’ franchise QB, but injuries and uneven play led to a split; Mayfield is currently lighting up stat sheets in Tampa Bay.
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Smith vs. Aaron Rodgers was close, despite the latter falling to No. 24. A couple of weeks before the draft, many insiders were still saying Rodgers would be the top pick. I put him on the cover of my scouting reports book, too. But it was splitting hairs; Smith was sixth in my rankings, while Rodgers was seventh. Under Urban Meyer at Utah, Smith showed solid dual-threat skill, an average arm and great accuracy. In San Francisco, he had to play under multiple offensive coordinators and was eventually traded once the team pivoted to Colin Kaepernick.
No one wanted the No. 1 pick in 2013. I didn’t have a single prospect graded above 9.4. Geno Smith was my top-ranked QB (24th overall), and he went in Round 2. EJ Manuel went before him, but he was outside my top 100! And at the top of the board, it was really Fisher or tackle Luke Joeckel. But the Chiefs had to take someone. Fisher had the 6-foot-7 frame and consistency to his game, and he dominated at the Senior Bowl that year. He’d go on to start 128 games over nine seasons, making the Pro Bowl twice.
There was promise around Winston early in his career; he had 4,000-plus passing yards in his first two seasons. He had escapability to his game, and he could spin it. I really thought he had the chance to be a good NFL quarterback. But he just never progressed in Tampa Bay, and his final year there was the infamous 33-TD, 30-INT season. He’s currently the Browns’ backup.
Testaverde put together a solid and long career, but he never really got off the ground with the Buccaneers. (Remember, we’re only looking at value for drafted team, so the Jets years don’t hold much weight here.) Coming out of Miami, he was big, accurate and instinctive, which is why I gave him a 9.7 grade. Over 21 seasons, he never really elevated an NFL roster, but he was more than effective under center.
George’s 8.5 grade was my lowest ever for a No. 1 pick. I had him at No. 81 overall on the Big Board. Now, in hindsight, that was probably low, but I had a handful of quarterbacks ahead of him. George had a good arm and a sidearm delivery, and his game ran hot and cold. He stuck as a starter in the pros for a decade, playing for five teams, but lasted just four years in Indy.
I wasn’t a big fan of Bradford’s game. I had defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh at No. 1 on my board, and you might recall I liked Jimmy Clausen more than Bradford among the QBs. Clausen was a bust, but Bradford wasn’t great, either. At Oklahoma, he showed solid instincts and accuracy when given a clean look, but he struggled with pressure and never really displayed the ability to command a pocket.
Bradford won Offensive Rookie of the Year in St. Louis, but injuries derailed his career from there.
“Big Daddy” was a disappointment in the pros. Wilkinson was a powerhouse and could collapse the pocket, making him the No. 1 prospect on my board with a 9.8 grade. He had burst, power and agility. Wilkinson didn’t have a “top pick” impact in the NFL, but he was a solid starter for a more than a decade. He finished with 54.5 sacks over 195 games.
Julius Peppers edged him on the board, but there wasn’t much QB1 debate; Carr topped Joey Harrington. I don’t know what could have been, but I always thought Houston didn’t give Carr an opportunity to succeed. There was no talent around him, and Carr took 76 sacks as a rookie. It’s hard to bounce back from that. In my predraft evaluation, the low delivery concerned me, but I liked his mobility and veteran approach.
Even though five quarterbacks went in the top 11, I had two running backs ranked higher: Ricky Williams and Edgerrin James. Couch was playing in that run-and-shoot offense at Kentucky under Hal Mumme, and the stats were incredible. Over two seasons as the Wildcats’ starter, he had 8,159 passing yards and 73 TD passes! But injuries hit in the NFL, and he was asked to make throws at the next level that just weren’t asked of him in college. Couch’s NFL career lasted five seasons, and he finished with a negative TD-INT ratio.
Sims could pass rush up the middle. He could deflect passes. He could jam the run. And he could pursue ball carriers and bring them to the ground. I gave him a 9.8 grade, and he was the consensus No. 1 pick. But none of it translated, and he closed his career in 1990 with 17 total sacks.
I had Nittany Lions teammate LaVar Arrington ranked over him, and Cleveland taking Brown was a slight curveball. The measurables were there (6-foot-4 and 270 pounds with speed), but I thought he needed technique work. The production never matched the physical traits; Brown had 19 sacks in six seasons.
Bruce was a big disappointment. Watch his Auburn tape, and you could see his ability to destroy the rhythm of an offense. It’s part of the reason I gave him a 9.5 grade. But in hindsight, the fact that Bruce would have periods in games when he’d disappear should have been a red flag. He was built to be an NFL pass rusher but tallied 32 sacks over 151 career games.
Here it is, my worst evaluation ever. Emtman was a huge bust. I gave him a 9.9 grade! To be fair, everyone I talked to thought he was in a class by himself, and I heard Reggie White comps. Emtman was unblockable in college, with cat-like quickness and great power. I loved his college tape, as did the Colts. They actually had the first and second picks that year and used both on defense (Quentin Coryatt).
There are two things to remember when sizing up the Emtman pick, though:
Injuries were a massive part of why he didn’t work out. He had knee and back issues starting in his rookie season. So while he ended up with just five sacks in 18 games over three seasons in Indianapolis (and eight sacks over six total NFL seasons), you have to wonder what could have been.
It’s not like Indy missed out on someone by taking Emtman. Receiver Jimmy Smith was a standout in the NFL, as was defensive back Troy Vincent. A few others put together good careers. But the 1992 draft class produced zero Hall of Famers.
Another injury-impacted top pick, Carter was limited to 319 career carries over seven seasons. He was rarely stopped for a loss at Penn State, thanks in part to a compact frame, and he had good hands out of the backfield. I graded him at 9.6, and there’s a decent chance it’s the last time we see a running back go No. 1 overall.
Major, major bust. Russell was fourth on my final board (behind receiver Calvin Johnson, tackle Joe Thomas and running back Adrian Peterson), and he edged Brady Quinn as the top quarterback with a 9.5 grade. Everyone saw the physical traits at his pro day — he had the arm talent to throw 80 yards in the air and maybe 60 from his knees. Arm strength can be overrated, though. Russell had this long and deliberate delivery, which you can get away with in college. But he never sped it up in the pros.
Really, we all just overlooked the flaws because his upside was so spectacular. There were safer prospects in the class, but the QB positional value and overall potential pushed him to No. 1. Russell played three years, completed 52.1% of his passes and threw 18 touchdown passes to 23 interceptions.
Manning wasn’t with the Chargers long. It was well-known that he didn’t want to play in San Diego, and Giants GM Ernie Accorsi pulled off a trade within an hour for the quarterback. If we were looking solely at what the player became, regardless of team, Manning would join his brother in the top tier. But we’re looking at the pick itself, which means the focus is on the team that made it.
This was a good class, and I had receiver Larry Fitzgerald No. 1, with defensive back Sean Taylor right behind him. Manning was third. He was joined in the top 10 by Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. I loved how Manning had elevated the Ole Miss team, and I saw pure passing skills on tape.
Even though the Chargers never saw Manning suit up for them, they did get Rivers in the deal. That puts the Manning pick at the top of the never-played-for-us tier — at least they still got a really good starting quarterback. Rivers actually threw 55 more touchdowns over his career than Manning, but he doesn’t have the two Super Bowl rings that Eli has to his name.
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Cousineau opted to go to the CFL when Buffalo selected him, and when he returned to the NFL a few years later, the Bills traded him to the Browns for three draft picks — including a first-rounder that brought Jim Kelly to Buffalo. So not a complete toss away pick. In that 1979 draft — my first year doing this — I had Cousineau rated third in the class. He was a tackling machine at Ohio State, and he had a few decent seasons in Cleveland, including a four-INT campaign in 1983.
Best prospect I’ve ever seen (9.9 grade) and probably the worst trade in NFL history. Elway wasn’t going to play for the Colts, and he had his potential baseball career as leverage, but Baltimore made the pick anyway. Then it gift-wrapped him to Denver in a move that directly impacted the team leaving town.
Elway had it all. In my final scouting report for him in 1983, I wrote, “He has no discernible weaknesses and is the prototype QB. … Without question, Elway is a can’t-miss All-Pro NFL QB who has the ability to make a place for himself in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.” He was inducted in 2004 following two Super Bowls, an MVP, nine Pro Bowls and 300 touchdown passes. He was the crown jewel of an incredible 1983 QB draft class, which also featured Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.
The difference between the Bucs’ pick of Jackson and everyone else listed here is Tampa Bay got nothing. No return in trade. Nothing. The ultimate wasted pick.
Of course, no one knew whether he’d sign his contract or opt to play baseball. And he was the no-brainer pick. I gave Jackson a 9.9 grade. He was a franchise running back with devastating size, speed and strength. No other prospect came close to him that year. Here’s a line from my predraft scouting report: “[Jackson] rates as a better prospect than Eric Dickerson, and could easily go on to break the NFL records held by Walter Payton.”
But none of that matters in Tampa Bay because Jackson did end up playing professional baseball, and he was then picked in Round 7 by the Raiders in 1987. Injuries limited his NFL career to just four seasons, but he was a fantastic talent, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
C’mon, we can’t rank Williams against everyone else here after six career games. There’s no doubt his ceiling is through the roof, and the Bears taking him was an easy call in April (though I did think Justin Fields could work, given time). I watched Caleb in high school, and I was blown away even then by the way he always knew where his receivers were and how he could deliver them the ball. I wrote this in my final report in April: “Williams is a fabulous playmaker, and there are ‘wow’ throws all over his tape … His improvisational skills are off the charts.” There were comps to Patrick Mahomes, and they were legit. He was a special prospect.
Early returns are good. It was a slow start to his rookie season, but he threw four TDs in Week 6 and has Chicago at 4-2.
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I was really, truly shocked Jacksonville went with Walker over Aidan Hutchinson. The rumors started during draft week, but I would have 100% taken Hutch there. Walker was ninth on my board — his game was still a work in progress. That said, he is making that progress now. After 10 sacks in 2023, he already has five through six games this season. Walker is developing a counter move, too, and he has some versatility to his game. I’d still take Hutchinson, but Walker has turned into a solid player for the Jags.
It’d be really tough to place Young on this list if we were doing a true 1 to 46 ranking. There’s no denying how poorly he has played. But he was given a quick hook in Year 2, and the Panthers never gave him adequate help on offense. He’s still 23 years old, and who knows what happens next. Could he resurface as a starter in Carolina? Could he get traded and start over somewhere else? Is he done? It hasn’t gone well — Young has 11 career touchdown passes to 13 interceptions, and he has completed less than 60% of his throws — but it’s really early to make any definitive call on him or this pick. Yes, even though C.J. Stroud, the second pick a year ago, looks really good in Houston.
The size was always going to be a concern. He measured in at 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds, but that’s not his playing weight. Smaller quarterbacks haven’t had consistent success. We all liked his instincts, poise and ability to distribute in the lead-up to the draft last year, and I ranked him No. 2 overall. The verdict is still out, but this is a rough start to Young’s career.
