NFL Week 17 picks: Why you should consider Lions, Panthers and Colts
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Week 17 games. Find out why he likes the Lions, Panthers and Colts to cover the spread.
As if one NFL Christmas game wasn’t enough, the league has decided to treat its fans to a holiday doubleheader in 2024. The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first matchup while the day will close with the Houston Texans playing host to the Baltimore Ravens.
Wednesday’s contest could mean a lot for the Ravens. Baltimore will either have a chance to win and take control of the AFC North if the Steelers lose to the Chiefs or the Ravens will have to win to keep pace with their divisional counterpart in the battle for a home playoff game.
Meanwhile, the Texans will be playing for the first time since Tank Dell suffered a significant knee injury in the team’s Week 16 game against the Chiefs. Houston could enter the Christmas afternoon game locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoff picture, so the contest doesn’t figure to mean as much to the Texans as it does to the Ravens.
Both teams are also finishing a brutal stretch of three games over 11 days, so each squad may be tired. That could create some quality betting opportunities for gamblers hoping to find good value picks for the second Christmas game.
What are the best bets for the Texans vs. Ravens game? Here are the top props bets to consider backing during the Week 17 battle between AFC contenders on Christmas Day.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Tuesday
Wednesday’s matchup figures to be a good one for Flowers – should he play. On Tuesday, Flowers was listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, casting doubt on his availability for the Christmas Day matchup.
The Texans have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide-outs this year while allowing the fifth-least yards to tight ends. That means Houston’s defense will likely be able to clamp down on Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to an extent while opening things up for the team’s receivers.
Flowers is, by far, the Ravens’ leader in receptions (71) and receiving yards (1,016). He should continue to get a high volume of opportunities against the Texans and also has the game-breaking speed needed to make big plays against Houston’s defense. Feel free to back him with this relatively low yardage total.
I know, I know – backing the under in a player prop isn’t necessarily fun, but Mixon has a tough matchup in Week 16 against the Ravens. Baltimore is one of just two NFL teams that has allowed less than 1,000 rushing yards to running backs this season. The other is the Chiefs, against whom Mixon racked up 57 yards on 14 carries last week.
Mixon is playing his third game in 11 days and while he wasn’t listed on the injury report ahead of Week 17, he has dealt with a banged-up ankle in recent weeks. Even if he is 100% healthy, he isn’t guaranteed to do much against a tough Ravens run defense that will be afforded more of an opportunity to sell out and stop Mixon with Dell out of the lineup.
For a time during the 2024 NFL season, it looked like Henry might have a chance to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards. Those odds are looking less likely with just two weeks left in the season, but he’s still a good bet to have a strong showing against the Texans.
Henry has six games in his career with at least 200 rushing yards. A whopping four of those came against the Texans.
Granted, DeMeco Ryans has helped Houston’s run defense improve dramatically over the last couple of seasons. The Texans limited Henry to 51 yards on 28 carries across two games last year.
Even so, Henry is still a threat to tear apart any defense. Last week, Henry shredded a good Steelers defense for 162 rushing yards on 24 carries. He should have a chance to do similar damage against the Texans, especially if he wants to exact some revenge for his mediocre performances against Houston last season.
As mentioned earlier, the Texans tend to be good against tight ends but below-average against receivers. They have allowed a league-high 20 receiving touchdowns to wide-outs this year, so that should allow Baltimore’s pass-catchers and chance to find the end-zone.
While Flowers is the receiver to back for yardage, Bateman is more likely to find the end-zone. The 6-1, 195-pound wide-out has caught a career-high eight touchdowns this season, second-most on the team behind only Andrews (nine).
With Andrews facing a tougher-than-average defense, expect Bateman to be among Lamar Jackson‘s preferred red-zone targets in this contest.
