The biggest race of the year at Tampa Bay Downs has arrived, which means a Kentucky Derby berth will be on the line Saturday at the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby. Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby 2025 has win-and-get-in implications since the top horses are awarded Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. A victory would be critical for Kentucky Derby hopeful Owen Almighty, who placed second at Tampa Bay Downs in February. Is this the horse you should back with your Tampa Bay Derby 2025 bets?
Owen Almighty is 2-1 in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby odds and post time is 5:34 p.m. ET. Chancer McPatrick, another Kentucky Derby hopeful, is the 8-5 betting favorite in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby field. With several talented three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you’ll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. Last November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score.
For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
One surprise: Menez is fading Chancer McPatrick, even though he is the betting favorite at 8-5. The expert acknowledges that this Chad Brown-trained horse has won two Grade 1 races. However, his sixth-place finish at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November left little to be desired. He also points out that all this horse’s wins have come on one-turn races, suggesting he could struggle with the two-turn race on Saturday.
It doesn’t help that Chancer McPatrick has dealt with an injury early in his career, and Brown believes this son of McKinzie will only be about 80% ready at the Tampa Bay Derby 2025. You can see all of Menez’s 2025 Fountain of Youth Stakes bets here.
Instead, Menez’s top pick is a horse who is “drawn perfectly.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot who hasn’t raced since 2024, but “has been training steadily for his return.” Menez is including these horses in his 2025 Tampa Bay Derby bets, and so should you. He’s sharing what horses to back at SportsLine.
So what horse wins the Tampa Bay Derby 2025? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Menez’s picks for the Tampa Bay Derby, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby and crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for $5,303, and find out.
