NFL Week 14 picks: Why you should consider Seahawks, Saints and Chargers on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Sunday’s games.
It’s often said that it’s better to be lucky than good. Being lucky and good is basically a real-world cheat code.
Fresh off an improbable win over the Las Vegas Raiders courtesy of a botched snap, the Kansas City Chiefs might just be the real-world cheat code. They’ve played 12 games, winning 11, with nine of those coming in one-score games. Those last-second heroics continue to happen each week, a sign that perhaps the NFL’s latest dynasty is also a team of destiny.
They like to live life on the edge, toying with their opponents all regular season long before flipping the switch in January and February. They’ve been doubted time and time again, only to keep coming out on top. After another week of debate about whether the team is good enough, the Chiefs can sit back, laughing while they wait to welcome the Chargers to town.
It’s not quite David vs. Goliath, but recent history suggests it might as well be. Kansas City has won six straight against their Los Angeles counterparts, taking their lunch money in every meeting since December 2021. The Chargers want a slice of success, looking for a signature win in Jim Harbaugh’s first season.
Kansas City won’t be confused with Ohio State anytime soon, but this might just be the pro version of Harbaugh’s collegiate rivalry.
Hopefully, you haven’t been waiting all day until Sunday night to cash some bets. If you did, well, here’s to hoping we can get rich together.
What are the best bets for “Sunday Night Football?” Here are some prop bets to consider for the Week 14 “SNF” battle.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Saturday.
This might be the lowest line we see set for Pacheco the rest of the season. At just 50.5, this feels like a gift. The running back returned in Week 13 after a nine-game absence, carrying the ball seven times for 44 yards. He is by far the Chiefs’ best back and already earned almost a 50-50 split with Kareem Hunt, playing 26 snaps to Hunt’s 27.
That is only going to increase in Pacheco’s favor over time, which we should start seeing tick up each week. The Chargers’ run defense has shown some cracks in recent weeks, allowing a 100-yard rusher in each of the last two weeks. The physical Pacheco figures to be a big factor in K.C.’s attack, especially as they try to get their offense back on track.
J.K. Dobbins is out and Ladd McConkey could be limited thanks to knee and shoulder injuries. Someone is going to need to step up if the Chargers want to pull off the upset and it starts with the quarterback. After a slow start to the year thanks to an ankle injury, Herbert has put his running cleats on, crushing this line in 5-of-7. The quarterback is averaging 29.7 rushing yards per game over that span, a big jump from the 9.7 he was posting in the first six games of the season.
The Chiefs are allowing the 12th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, giving up 22 yards per game. Their aggressive defense, blitzing 34.4% of the time, profiles as a good matchup for Herbert to use his legs. The Chargers’ signal-caller posted three carries without picking up a yard in Week 4 against these Chiefs, but Herbert is much more mobile this time around. If L.A. wants to steal a win on the road, they’ll have to rely on the arm, and the legs, of their star quarterback.
Hopkins has been up-and-down in his short time with the Chiefs after arriving via trade from the Titans in Week 8. Despite Kansas City easing him along, the receiver remains a threat whenever he’s on the field. That’s been on display with the three touchdowns Hopkins has hauled in, all of them coming in the red zone.
The veteran wideout is leading K.C. in red zone targets since Week 8 with seven, ranking behind only Hunt (8) and Travis Kelce (13). Working in Hopkins’ favor, however, is that he is coming off a season-high 90-yard performance against the Raiders on Black Friday. He saw nine targets, tying a season-high, but only managed four catches. The Chargers have been a stingy defense against running backs and tight ends, ranking amongst the fewest touchdowns allowed to each position. Hopkins has claimed the WR1 role and as a receiver built for red zone efficiency, he will have plenty of chances to find the end zone once again.
The popular pick is McConkey, and for good reason. The Chiefs have a run-man coverage at 32.8% rate, the sixth-highest in the league, but the rookie is coming into this matchup banged up. Despite McConkey being L.A.’s best weapon against that coverage, we like Dissly as more of a long-shot play. The Chiefs have been carved up by tight ends all year, allowing a league-high 78.5 yards per game. While that doesn’t always translate to touchdowns, Dissly will be seeing plenty of the ball in Week 14.
After posting a goose egg in the box score for Week 13, expect Dissly to be more involved this time around. He has just one touchdown on the year, but is still tied with McConkey for the team lead with six red-zone targets this season. If you don’t want to take the plunge on Dissly to find the end zone, then we’d recommend taking a shot on his receiving prop, taking the over 35.5 at -115.
If you believe these picks can go 4-for-4, you might want to throw them into a same-game parlay. Odds on that parlay come out to +4000, meaning a $10 wager would return $410 if all four legs are victorious.
