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When the Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons game was flexed into the “Sunday Night Football” slot for Week 17, many thought it would be a matchup between Kirk Cousins and the team that drafted him.
Instead, Cousins has been benched in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons made the switch to the 2024 first-round pick to spark their struggling offense in the hopes of making it into the postseason.
The switch allowed them to pull ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South entering Week 17. Now, they will look to hold onto that top spot in a tough matchup with the Commanders.
Washington is fresh off a season-defining win over the Philadelphia Eagles that kept them alive in the NFC East race. The Commanders entered Week 17 needing only one win to clinch a wild-card spot at a minimum, so they should be amped for the opportunity to kickstart the Josh Harris and Dan Quinn era with a postseason appearance.
This game will have an impact on the NFC playoff picture, and that’s good news for bettors who will be able to find some good value picks among the lines for the penultimate “SNF” game of the year.
What are the best bets for “Sunday Night Football?” Here are some player props and anytime TD bets to consider for “SNF’s” Week 17 battle of potential NFC playoff teams.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Saturday.
Daniels is coming off one of his best games as a pro, leading the Commanders to a whopping 36 points in a comeback win over the Eagles. He threw five touchdowns in that contest, and while some may expect regression after that performance, he should only continue to find success in this matchup.
The Falcons entered Week 17 having allowed 28 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks. That was tied for the most in the NFL alongside only the Carolina Panthers.
While Atlanta’s passing defense may look like it has been better of late, it’s worth noting that the Falcons have played against Desmond Ridder and Drew Lock in back-to-back games. Before that, they had allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight of nine games and an average of 2.6 passing touchdowns per game in that span.
Add in that Daniels has tossed multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and this looks like a great opportunity for the rookie to continue to bolster his stats.
If you’re backing Daniels in this matchup, you might as well back McLaurin to score, too. The duo have been synced up during Daniels’ recent hot streak, as McLaurin has totaled six touchdowns in his last four games.
The Falcons have allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so that should give McLaurin a chance to find his way into the end zone. He may have a difficult matchup at times going up against A.J. Terrell, but the star receiver should be able to break free near the end zone at least once in this game.
If you’re not excited about backing McLaurin to score a touchdown, taking his over receiving yards total (63.5, -115) could be a safer substitute. Scary Terry is averaging 6.3 catches and 77 yards per game over his last four outings, so against a leaky secondary, he should have another great day.
No team in the NFL has allowed fewer catches to running backs than the Commanders. The position has posted just 43 catches through 15 games against Washington on a league-low 54 targets. That will make it hard for Atlanta to get the ball to its running backs out of the backfield.
That’s something the Falcons haven’t been doing recently. Over the last three games, Robinson has been targeted just six times in total, twice in each game. Granted, two of those came with Cousins starting, but even in Penix’s debut, Zac Robinson didn’t scheme up many checkdowns for the running back. They used Bijan as a runner when they wanted him to get the ball.
All that points to this player prop hitting. The line may not be overly enticing, but this seems like a good option if you’re looking for a safe pick to include in a same-game parlay.
Those looking for a long-shot touchdown scorer could certainly do worse than Pitts. Penix only threw in his direction twice in his starting debut, but that included one red-zone target. Of course, Pitts dropped that pass into the hands of a waiting defender, so maybe that explains why the rookie didn’t look his way frequently.
Nonetheless, Pitts has a good matchup against a Washington defense that has allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. This could be a good opportunity for him to develop chemistry with Penix and prove that he still can become a matchup nightmare, even if him re-signing with Atlanta is far from a sure thing.
