An early look at the top-10 ADPs for this upcoming fantasy basketball season.
As the NBA season inches towards us, some early fantasy basketball ADP rankings have emerged from the internet nether. Let’s dive into the top-10 ADPs this season thus far and investigate.
The young French phenom burst onto the NBA landscape with fervor last season, averaging a historical 3.6 blocks per game during his rookie campaign. This is the third highest of all time amongst rookies, trailing only David Robinson and Manute Bol. Pretty good defensive company to be in. Befitting Wemby’s second-place Defensive Player of the Year and First Team All-Defense finish, he’s shaping up to be an all time great defender (is it too early to say that?) alongside an offensive package that includes step-back threes, excessive shot release height, and handles that shouldn’t be possible for a man of his size. He averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game last season. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better rookie campaign, fantasy wise.
Similar to his real-life hype, his fantasy profile bodes well for this upcoming season. His monstrous shot-blocking ability should reliably prime him for another Top-10 finish given he can win managers the blocks category every week. If he can clean up his percentages, of which he’s shooting 46.5% from the field and 80% from the line, he can climb into the top-three by the end of this upcoming season assuming he improves his counting stats. Clearly, his upside is game-breakingly good. I’m still more comfortable with selecting sure-fire-bet Nikola Jokic at the number one spot due to his reliability to stuff the stat sheet season after season, but there’s just no wrong answer here. Additionally, there’s optimism that the Spurs’ addition of veteran point guard Chris Paul can unlock more of Wemby’s offensive game. If that happens, watch out.
The three time NBA MVP finished 3rd last season in both category and points leagues. Before last season, Jokic dominated the league on his way to three consecutive first place finishes in category leagues. His floor bottoms out at top-three. He’s a basketball machine who sleepwalks his way to fantasy basketball excellence with monster efficiency numbers, gaudy counting stats, and nightly availability. Last season Jokic averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists while shooting 58% from the field and 82.3% from the line.
With Jamal Murray’s current form in question, especially after his disastrous Olympic performances, Jokic will handle a heavy offensive load if the Nuggets have any hope of another deep playoff run. The number two pick in fantasy basketball drafts this season seems particularly good with the ability to guarantee either Jokic or Wembanyama. Snap pick the Nuggets’ superstar with no hesitation and don’t look back.
Doncic historically fares better as a points league option rather than a catagory league option due to his poor percentages and costly turnovers, but last season we saw Doncic take his first step into a top-10 finish after placing 100th as a rookie and 26th, 37th, 28th, and 16th after that. Many doubted whether his production was going to take a hit following the Mavs’ acquisition of star point guard Kyrie Irving at the end of the previous season, but Doncic silenced that noise with a career-high and league-leading 33.9 PPG alongside 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game. He also shot a career high 38.2% from beyond the arc and matched his career-high steal rate of 1.4 per game. He shot a career-high 78.6% from the FT line and attempted a career-high 23.6 shots per game. That’s a lot of career-highs; he hasn’t even turned 26 yet.
We can expect another monster season usage-wise from one of the NBA’s brightest stars, but whether he can produce enough to warrant a top-three pick depends on his ability to keep those percentages clean while limiting those turnovers. Savvy managers can build around Doncic’s weaknesses by forgoing the FT% or turnover categories. Everything else is just gravy.
As the focal point of one of the hottest teams in the current NBA landscape, SGA emerged as a bona fide superstar during the 2022-23 NBA season and hasn’t stepped off the gas pedal since. He uses his elite agility and handle to get inside the paint, where he’s an absolute terror with crafty footwork and mesmerizing body control. His finishing rate last season at the rim was 71.9%; for comparison, Victor Wembanyama is a full 10 inches taller and shot 70.6% at the rim.
Last season SGA averaged 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 2.0 steals with 0.9 blocks. His ability to produce huge defensive numbers alongside his otherworldly efficiency consistently vaults him to the top of the fantasy and real life leaderboards. He finished second in MVP voting last season. If there’s any stain on his otherwise perfect stat sheet, it’s his lack of threes. SGA is a safe fourth overall pick, but if I’m paying a premium at this spot, I’d rather take Giannis Antetokounmpo for the counting stats.
Similar to Doncic, Antetokounmpo’s poor category league performances are due to his costly free-throw shooting. It comes at high volume due to his ability to bulldoze into the paint, where defenders must foul or get scored on. As a result, Giannis has attempted more than 10 free throws per game every season since his first All-Star season in 2016-17. His free throws are notoriously slow and painfully inaccurate with a career average of 70.2% from the line. Despite these deficiencies, Antetokounmpo is a monster and a premier big man who averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game with 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. He may kill your FT% in category leagues, but it’s worth it.
It feels safe to say that there’s next to no hope that Giannis can fix his free-throw woes. And he doesn’t need to; he’s a champion and two-time MVP with as many All-NBA appearances as All-Star appearances (8) with a DPOY to boot. Fantasy-wise, Giannis will provide a healthy heap of counting stats and will be a nightly triple double threat. And the best part? He’s an iron-man whose availability is attractive when picking in the top-five range. If Damian Lillard can find his shot again next season and space the floor for Giannis, the Greek Freak will feast.
Haliburton got off to an impressive start last season before his hamstring injury last January. Last season he averaged 20.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and led the league with 10.9 assists per game. Driven by his gaudy assist and low turnover numbers, Haliburton is good but doesn’t offer much in the way of scoring. However, he provides nice peripheral stats with 1.2 steals per game and 2.8 threes per game. I’m not comfortable selecting Haliburton within the top-eight range, especially with Pascal Siakam’s presence in Indiana.
For someone in this ADP range, having only 20 PPG is too steep of a penalty, and considering that points come off the board quickly in fantasy basketball, this is a steep price to pay. Even in points leagues, we have yet to see evidence of Haliburton ascending into a top-10 force. For those who are more optimistic about Haliburton, he’s still a promising young guard who just spent an offseason in the company of some all time legends on the Olympics roster. His ceiling is largely still unknown.
Anthony Davis is rarely a fist pump pick. Yes, the upside is immense and rewarding. He’s a physical freak of nature who only lacks in the assist and three pointer categories, but his availability is always in question. Both Davis and teammate LeBron James were consistently featured on the Lakers’ injury report for the entirety of last-season. It’s common to see Davis go down at least once a game, grabbing at any limb with a grimmace. It’s nothing short of a miracle that he played 76 games last season, which was a career-high. While on the floor, Davis is a fantasy basketball stud who averaged 24.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game along with 1.2 steals and 2.3 blocks on great efficiency.
I’m not at all comfortable with selecting Davis within the top seven. His health is too much of a gamble especially with ironmen such as Jayson Tatum still on the board. And if you want to gamble for some upside at this spot with an injury-prone player, why not select Joel Embiid, who is going to out-produce Anthony Davis across the board with similar injury risk?
There’s been a lot of (mostly meaningless) discourse running rampant this summer concerning Tatum’s lack of minutes during the Olympic Games. On a roster as talented as the USA’s, it’s tough to find minutes for everybody. Fellow Boston star wing Jaylen Brown was omitted from the roster altogether despite the duo having just captured the NBA title right before the Olympics!
Fantasy-wise, Jayson Tatum is as durable as they come. None of his production is particularly eye-popping, but he posted a very respectable 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game last season on 47.1% shooting from the field and 83.3% from the line. In order for Tatum to truly take the leap into the top-10 in category leagues, given he’s never finished within it, he would need to improve his paltry defensive stats. Given his current situation in Boston, in which Tatum is surrounded by a star-studded cast, it’s tough to envision him getting the usage necessary to propel his points into the 30’s or to turn a new leaf defensively. Yes, he’s good in real life, but real-life defense doesn’t always translate into steals and blocks. We just need bigger numbers here.
Wow, talk about a discount. Joel Embiid’s well-documented injury list is as long as the 76ers’ Finals appearance drought. Was that too harsh? As long as a CVS receipt maybe? Embiid is an absolute monster on the floor when he’s healthy. Last season he posted 34.7 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game alongside 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks with incredible efficiency and high volume. Unfortunately, he did not play enough games to qualify for any awards under the NBA’s new 65-game rule.
The Process is a fantasy basketball unicorn who has per-minute impact like no other but struggles to stay on the floor. It’s unfortunate that his health is far from guaranteed, otherwise he would be clear top-two pick every season. Pick nine is incredible value for a player of Embiid’s caliber and I’d have no problem selecting him as early as fourth or fifth, even.
Seeing Edwards projected at this spot is jarring. While he’s extremely talented and exciting to watch, he’s never finished above 35 in category leagues in his young career. Last season he averaged 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game with a career high 83.6% free throw percentage. Selecting Edwards at this spot implies extreme optimism for his stats to grow by a decent margin. The problem is that it’s hard to clearly see the areas he can improve in. He’s already producing good counting stats with plenty of points and triples (2.4 per game). His rebounds and assists have no reason to climb noticeably. His efficiency is unlikely to increase much given the volume of shots he takes and the difficulty of his attempts.
To be fair, he’s better in points leagues. Even in that format, selecting him with a top-10 pick is too ambitious. Picking him for his potential ceiling here is far too costly when there are still options in the teens who are more reliable such as Trae Young, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, or even Devin Booker. I’d expect to see his ADP slipping a bit closer to the start of the season.
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