After Donald Trump announced his plans to initiate peace talks between  Russia and Ukraine following his phone calls with leaders of the respective countries, US Vice President JD Vance met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday and said Washington is targeting a “durable and lasting peace” in Ukraine.

NDTV spoke to the defence editor of The Economist, Shashank Joshi, one of the closest observers of the ongoing war, to understand how the peace talks are likely to progress as well as their larger geopolitical ramifications. 

To a question on where Russia stands on the deal, Mr Joshi replied, “So far, the good news for the Russians is that they have had a series of unilateral concessions upfront from the Americans – No NATO membership in Ukraine, no US support for European troops in Ukraine and no NATO Article 5 support for those troops.”

Article 5 of US-led NATO provides that if an ally is the victim of an armed attack, every other member of the alliance will consider this act of violence an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the ally attacked.

Mr Joshi said Trump saying we should have Russia back in the G7 has made Kremlin “delighted”. However, Mr Joshi said at the Munich Security Conference, “JD Vance will deliver a message that says to the Russians as well if you don’t play nice, we can also up the pressure on you.” 

To a question on what lies for Ukraine in the US-brokered deal, he said, They recognise they’re not going to get Crimea back. For them, what is more, important than getting Donetsk, Luhansk and Donbas back is the security guarantee. He said for Ukraine, territory is not the core of the discussion, even though it is profoundly important to them but how to ensure Russia never invades them again will be central to the peace deal.

After meeting the Ukrainian President, US Vice President JD Vance said, “We want the war to come to a close, we want the killing to stop, but we want to achieve a durable, lasting peace, not the kind of peace that’s going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road.”

Zelensky called it a “good conversation”, saying the encounter with Vance was “our first meeting, not last, I’m sure”. “We are ready to move as quickly as possible towards a real and guaranteed peace,” Zelensky wrote later on X, adding that an envoy from Washington would visit Kyiv. 

Options For Ukraine?

The defence expert said it would leave Zelensky casting around some other options. He said “The Americans seem to be ruling out NATO membership, although, with Trump, you never say never,” adding that he “wouldn’t rule out the option of European troops in Ukraine as the French are pushing for it.” 

Earlier, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth appeared to rule out Ukraine joining NATO or retaking all of its territory.

Despite scepticism from some countries, the option of European troops in Ukraine is on the table, Mr Joshi said.

“But I think we’re probably heading towards the third option, which is we are not going to give you Article 5 NATO-type security guarantees that say we will come to your aid and intervene, but we will arm you very heavily with billions of dollars worth of weapons so you can defend yourself against Russia,” he added.

Political Implication On Zelensky?

Mr Joshi said Zelensky is in trouble since he is struggling politically inside Ukraine and the Americans are pushing the idea of early elections, which also “horrifies” many in the Ukrainian opposition who know this would be “exploited by the Russians”. 

“If a bad deal is imposed on Zelensky by the US on the pain of withdrawal of aid, the Ukrainian President could find himself in a difficult spot and could face grave political difficulty and his government could fall. We could see a protest, and dissent from the Ukrainian armed forces as well,” he added.

European nations are worried about being frozen out of talks to end the war, Mr Joshi said, adding that “the great worry for them is that Trump will begin talking to the Russians before he has even spoken to the Ukrainians and them.”

Speaking earlier in the day, JD Vance said, “Of course, they should be at the table”. He added, however, that European nations needed to share more of the burden for Europe’s defence.

The president is not going to go in this (the peace talks) with blinders on,” Vance was quoted as saying in the Wall Street Journal. “He’s going to say, ‘Everything is on the table, let’s make a deal,'” US Vice President added.

Zelensky has played down the fear that Trump was leaving Kyiv in the cold and said the US President had given him his personal number when they spoke.

“If he will choose our side, and if he will not be in the middle, I think he will pressure and he will push Putin to stop the war,” Zelensky said. 

Kyiv has held talks over granting access to its rare mineral deposits in return for future US security support in a bid to keep the US close