While the top two teams raced further ahead of the pack, the jostling for the bottom six spots of the top eight continued in Round 20, with many exciting and willing games.

The Roosters saw their top four chances plummet following a disappointing loss in Melbourne.

Their rivals for this weekend, the Sea Eagles, meanwhile continued their ascent up the ladder after another impressive display with their superstar fullback firing. Are they the real deal?

The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership.

Note: Teams are listed below in order of top eight percentage not ladder position.

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MELBOURNE STORM (34 points, +141)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 99.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 69.7%

Remaining games: Eels (A), Dragons (H), Rabbitohs (A), Panthers (A), Dolphins (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (A)

The Storm faced their biggest test of the season last weekend when they clashed with the Roosters, but handled it with aplomb, and in the process, made a huge statement. Melbourne didn’t really look like losing in the 24-8 win, with unheralded outside backs Jack Howarth and Grant Anderson shining. The Storm would have more or less wrapped up the minor premiership had Penrith not produced a miraculous come from behind win over the Dolphins on Sunday. Two games the Storm should win await in Rounds 21 and 22 (Eels, Dragons) with some key cavalry back on deck in the next fortnight, including Christian Welch, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and potentially Cam Munster. If the Storm win their next two,

PENRITH PANTHERS (30 points, +118)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 98.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 26.4%

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Knights (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Raiders (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (H)

Welcome back Nathan Cleary! The Panthers half spearheaded a massive comeback win over the Dolphins and kicked the matchwinning two point field goal in golden point. It was Cleary’s return game from a hamstring injury which had kept him sidelined since Round 10. The win was an important one in the context of the minor premiership race as the Panthers would have been six points behind the Storm with six rounds remaining had they not overcome the 14-point deficit What’s more impressive about the result, is that four Blues stars were rested (Jarome Luai, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Brian To’o) while Dylan Edwards was sidelined with a knee injury. He’s expected back in 3-4 weeks and right in time for Penrith’s finals assault.

CRONULLA SHARKS (28 points, +125)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing top eight: 99.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 85.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 3.8%

Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H), Sea Eagles (A)

Despite not playing in Round 20, the Sharks jumped from a predicted finish of fourth to third and a whopping 13.4% increase in their top four chances thanks to a Roosters loss to the Storm. While the Nicho Hynes injury is less than ideal, the Sharks have performed well in his absence this season, winning three of four including a 58-6 thrashing of the Tigers. Another finals campaign awaits, however it’s what they do in the post-season which will be under the microscope, considering their inability in recent seasons to make much impact in September.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS (26 points, +209)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing top eight: 98.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 67.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Dolphins (A), Eels (H), Titans (A), Raiders (H), Rabbitohs (A)

The Roosters copped a reality check in Round 20, humbled by a Storm outfit missing several stars. Granted, the Chooks weren’t fully healthy either with Joey Manu (hand) and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (suspension) out while they had forwards Angus Crichton, Spencer Leniu and Lindsay Collins backing up from a brutal Origin decider. With all of that said, the Roosters were entitled to play better and it slashed their top eight odds from 82% to 67%. It’s not a loss that should be labelled as troubling, but their record of one win from their last 20 against premiership heavyweights Melbourne and Penrith is what you’d call troubling. Despite this, their roster is still stacked and they enjoy a favourable run home, so they do appear destined for a top four spot.

MANLY SEA EAGLES (25 points, +97)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing top eight: 85.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 19.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Roosters (A), bye, Raiders (A), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)

Following the 38-8 beat down of the Titans, the Fox Sports Lab increased Manly’s chances of making the eight from 77.1% to 85.7%. They are humming at the moment, and outside of the clear three premiership favourites (Storm, Panthers, Roosters), Manly are arguably playing like the next best team at the moment. Their attack has been lethal of late, while defensively, they are stout, conceding 62 points in their past five games. If they can beat the Roosters this week, they are a live top four chance as their run home isn’t too difficult.

CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (24 points, +63)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing top eight: 74.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 9.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Dolphins (H), Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)

A narrow loss to the Cowboys in Round 20, as well as several of the chasing pack recording big wins, has slightly dented the Bulldogs hopes of making the finals this season. As has been the case in recent weeks, Canterbury’s attack failed to fire in North Queensland, something Cameron Ciraldo will need to fix on the home stretch. The Bulldogs find themselves sixth on 24 points and face a tricky test of their ability this week when they head to Suncorp to face Brisbane. Win that and their chances of a finals return will be significantly boosted. Lose and their final dreams still won’t be dead, given a relatively favourable run home.

DOLPHINS (24 points, +46)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing top eight: 71.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Titans (H), Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)

Had they held their nerve against the Panthers, they would have all but locked their first ever top eight finish in just their second NRL season. Despite the loss, the signs are good that they can at least mix it with the top teams. They also pushed the Storm not long ago in a narrow defeat. A very winnable game against the Titans await this week. With their + for and against, four wins from seven games should be enough.

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (24 points, +3)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing top eight: 63.3%

Chance of finishing top four: 4.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Raiders (H), bye, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

Sunday’s gritty two-point win over the Bulldogs was North Queensland’s sixth from their last eight games. The recent form and their talented roster means they should be considered among the premiership threats, perhaps a tier under the big three of Penrith, Melbourne and the Roosters. They have a favourable run home, with four home games still to come as well as a bye. Three wins from their last six should be enough to earn a top eight spot and that looks extremely doable, although next on the docket is a match up with the Sharks, who have been the Cowboys’ bogey side in recent seasons.

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