• Trevor Lawrence still goes No. 1 overall: The Jaguars haven’t attained the team success they hoped since drafting Lawrence, but it largely isn’t his fault.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown enters the top 10: The fourth-round pick has been a top-five receiver in PFF grading over the last two years.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 12 minutes
Three years later, the 2021 NFL draft class has given us plenty of highlights, surprises and storylines to analyze.
With enough film and performances to evaluate, it’s the perfect time to revisit that draft and rethink what teams should have done if they had the benefit of hindsight.
Here’s how the 2021 NFL draft would look if we could do it all over again.
The consensus number one overall remains the first pick, and it’s not one you really need to overthink. Lawrence hasn’t hit the heights touted for him, but he is a franchise quarterback, and that is a tough person to find.
Zach Wilson didn’t work out for the Jets, and with no quarterback prospect worthy of such a high pick, they don’t hesitate to get arguably the best player in the class. Parsons is one of the premier pass rushers in the league, with only Myles Garrett grading higher since he entered the league at the spot.
Things didn’t really work out for Trey Lance. He never got adequate playing time, but there’s a reason the team was so quick to move on from him — and for so little. It’s not just the emergence of Brock Purdy. Instead, having already made the trade up, and with no quarterback worthy of being taken here, the 49ers get an elite player at a premium position in Surtain II.
As a rookie, Kyle Pitts looked on his way to being the generational talent that most of the draft community had him pegged. However, injuries slowed him down in Year Two, and that top-end potential doesn’t feel like any guarantee. That’s not the case when it comes to Chase, who has lived up to the hype and established himself as one of the top receivers in the game.
The Bengals would be very happy to keep Chase, but with him off the board, they ignore the receiver spot and instead think about protecting their franchise QB. Sewell has been everything as advertised since entering the league.
While Miami must be happy with what it has gotten from Jaylen Waddle, St. Brown has arguably been a more productive receiver since entering the league, finishing in the top five of our receiver gradings the past two years.
The downside to picking well during the actual draft season is that when it comes your time to pick, all the players you selected are gone. Sewell and St. Brown are off the board, but Darrisaw has a decent consolation prize. He has emerged as one of the best tackles in the league with top-10 blocking grades the past two years, including the second spot in 2022.
Jaycee Horn has been a good enough player, but when you pick in the top 10, you’re probably hoping for a little more. Waddle has been more than that. Despite playing in an offense where it would be easy to live in the shadow of Tyreek Hill, he has amassed at least 1,000 yards every year of his career.
Surtain is gone, and there is no QB worth a top-10 pick, so the Broncos have an interesting dilemma. Garett Bolles has locked down one tackle spot, but the long-term future at the other is far from certain, and Slater is a guy who can sort that out. He dropped off a little last year, but his opening two years grading a top-10 tackle — and a strong start to 2024 — shows his quality.
Smith may not have hit the heights of some of the receivers in this class, but he quickly adjusted to life in the NFL and developed into a fine receiver, grading above 75.0 in receiving in each of his four seasons. There is no need to make any changes here with him on the board.
The Justin Fields selection just didn’t work out, so the Bears can get set about putting in the hard yards when it comes to fixing their offensive line. Humphrey has become the best center in the NFL, finishing top of our rankings in two out of three seasons and showing no signs of slowing down this year.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Edge Greg Rousseau
The Cowboys struck gold with their selection of Parsons, but he’s too good to fall this far, so they have to go back to the draft board to find some additional pass rush. It was either Rousseau or Jaelan Phillips here, but Rousseau gets the nod with his more consistent past two years.
The Chargers got it right with Slater, and there’s no doubt focusing on the offensive line would make them better. So, we go with the best lineman available here in Meinerz, who has emerged as one of the best guards in the league. He’s been a top-10 guard in our grades the past two years, including securing the fourth spot last year.
Alijah Vera-Tucker has done well enough when he’s been on the field, but a year before they draft a stud receiver in Garrett Wilson, the Jets grab a different star receiver in Collins. Once Houston sorted out its quarterback situation, he exploded and is coming off a year where he had the fourth-highest receiving grade of all wide receivers.
After Year One, it looked like the Patriots had found the heir to Tom Brady. Mac Jones had finished 14th overall in our quarterback grades, and surely the only way was up. Two years later, he’s not with the team after performances that got gradually worse. Still, the Patriots did get it right in Round 2 with Barmore. In 2023, he had the highest pass-rushing grade of any interior defender drafted in the 2021 class.
Zaven Collins is enjoying his best season so far, but he hasn’t become the impact player the team would have hoped through three years. Instead — and this is before the team had Trey McBride on the roster — Arizona lands a big weapon for Kyler Murray at tight end. Pitts might not be worth the top-five pick at which he originally went, but he’s a great fit here.
The less said about Alex Leatherwood, the better. It’s a pick that didn’t work out spectacularly, as the team cut ties after one season with him. In a class that produced plenty on the interior offensive line, there are options there, but the Raiders instead grab an impact player for their defensive line. McNeill has developed into a quality starter and is coming off a 2023 season where he was the eighth-ranked interior defensive lineman.
There’s a temptation to try fixing some of the Dolphins’ offensive line problems here, but it doesn’t feel right not to take Phillips with him available. Our fifth-ranked pass-rushing edge in 2022, Phillips would go higher if not for injuries.
Jamin Davis has played plenty of snaps over the past three years without distinguishing himself and now finds himself a healthy scratch. Instead, Washington goes big and gets itself a quarterback to try and get the team competing in the NFC East. Fields is something of a polarizing figure, with his time in Chicago failing to live up to the hype/hope. But he’s shown what he is capable of in six games in Pittsburgh. With a good offensive line and some weapons in Washington, this might just have worked.
At times, Kadarius Toney would flash the kind of potential that made him worth the investment. But all too often, they were just that: flashes. Instead, the Giants take advantage of a stacked interior lineman class and grab Cosmi, our fifth-ranked guard in 2023.
Kwity Paye just hasn’t consistently delivered to warrant a first-round pick. So, we go corner instead because you can never draft enough corners. Who knows if we would talk more about Horn if he hadn’t missed so much of Year Three after an encouraging second year in the league, but the talent has always been evident for all to see.
It never worked out for Caleb Farley in Tennessee. Injuries played a huge role, and after three years with the team, he was cut. Instead, the Titans can get a head start on fixing their line problems by grabbing the excellent Smith.
The Vikings lose out here because the excellent Darrisaw would not last this long, given his strong performances. But they need help on the offensive line, and Dickerson is the next-best guy. He has developed into a reliable guard that would shore up Minnesota’s interior from Day One.
Najee Harris has been a serviceable back for the Steelers, but worth the first-round pick? Not when you can grab an impact linebacker like Owusu-Koramoah. He would continue the Steelers’ long tradition of excellent inside linebacker play as the team prepares to move on from Devin Bush.
Sorry, Jags fans – it’s a bit boring, right? Both re-draft picks have seen the team grab the players they originally drafted, and for good reason. Etienne has been a difference-maker after missing his rookie year, displaying a rare ability to force missed tackles.
Greg Newsome II has been a solid enough corner, but the kind you can find outside of the first round. Later in this draft, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah would fill a big hole for the team, but with him gone, getting the next-best linebacker in Bolton is an easy decision.
Rashod Bateman is on his way to a career year, which may alter some opinions, but right now, the jury is very much in favor of going in a different direction. Holland has been an excellent safety for Miami, and it’s really only the value of the position itself that holds him back from getting drafted higher.
Injuries have really hampered Payton Turner since the Saints drafted him. Despite an encouraging start (relatively speaking) to 2024, it’s a different direction for the Saints, and that means cornerback. Samuel is coming off two strong seasons, forcing double-digit pass breakups each year.
Eric Stokes is still hanging on in Green Bay, but he’s not developed into the top corner the Packers had hoped. Instead, we do something crazy and get Aaron Rodgers a weapon. Freiermuth didn’t enjoy the best season last year, but there are already some encouraging signs that he’s getting close to his 2022 best, which saw him finish as a top-10 tight end.
The Bills would be happy enough to get Rousseau again, but with him gone, they start looking at building their cornerback depth. If you’re going secondary, then there is a good case for Newsome or Deommodore Lenoir here, but ultimately, Campbell has displayed a higher level of play with his 2022 season.
Has Oweh lived up to the hope? Probably not. But it’s hard to find pass rushers who consistently generate pressure, and in this regard, Oweh has gotten better year after year. There is no need to overthink this one.
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka just hasn’t gotten pressure consistently enough to warrant this pick. Instead, with the team in search of a pass rush, the Bucs grab Odighizuwa.
