Ground Control – Through the first six weeks of the season, the Ravens have wielded a remarkable advantage over the opposition: They are out-rushing their opponents by more than 146 yards per game. With the aforementioned pairing of Henry and Jackson in the backfield, Baltimore leads the NFL with 205.3 rushing yards per game, with Henry topping the individual leaderboard with 704, or a mere 117.3 per game. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense is allowing only 59.0 ground yards per game, also the best mark in the league. The complementary threats of the enormous Henry and his unmatched big-play ability and the elusive Jackson with his open-field moves frequently puts defenses into a bind. That’s a daunting challenge for a Buccaneers defense that had some issues against the run in the first month of the season but has been much stingier of late with the returns of Vita Vea and Calijah to the front line. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is enjoying a long-awaited resurgence of their rushing attack, as noted above. Even with Rachaad White dealing with a foot injury, the Buccaneers have gotten outsized production from their backfield thanks to rookie Bucky Irving and second-year back Sean Tucker. White could make it a “three-headed monster” if he is able to return to action on Monday night. Irving and Tucker made sharp cuts and showed impressive vision in the open field in their combined big game in New Orleans, and Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen’s more varied run schemes have fit well with the Bucs’ athletic offensive line. Moving the ball on the ground as well as they have recently will likely be harder against Nnamdi Madubuike, Roquan Smith and the Ravens’ swarming defense, but it may be crucial in an effort to keep up with the Ravens.
Turning Up the Heat – Like their ground game, the Buccaneers have also found some answers on the other side of the ball in terms of getting to the passer. The aforementioned 15 sacks the Bucs’ defense has collected over the last three games came after they had just two in the season’s first three contests. The returns of Vea and Kancey have also helped in this area, but it has truly been a group effort. No Buccaneer defender has more than 3.0 sacks at the moment, but 10 different players have gotten into the mix. That includes Vea, who has had a sack in each of the last three games, and Kancey, who got one in his first game of the season in New Orleans. However, Jackson has only absorbed seven sacks so far and the Ravens have allowed the lowest sack rate (3.95%) in the NFL. Obviously, that has a lot to do with Jackson’s escapability, and also the threat of those escapes, which forces teams to be more conservative with their pass-rush lanes so as not to lose containment. The Bucs’ defense had five sacks in New Orleans, but that came against a rookie quarterback making his first start and it was accomplished with a high rate of blitzing in the second half. Will Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers feel as comfortable blitzing Jackson knowing how he can get away from defenders? Jackson has also been prolific attacking the middle of the field in the passing game, so the Bucs won’t want to create more holes in their coverage. If Tampa Bay’s defensive front can get to the Ravens’ quarterback while rushing only four, they will have a better chance of slowing Baltimore’s offense down to some degree.
Keeping Pace in the South – By the time the Buccaneers take the field on Monday night, they will know where they stand in the NFC South standings and what opportunity lies in front of them. The Falcons will also play at home in Week Seven, facing the 3-3 Seahawks at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon. If Seattle can do Tampa Bay a favor by leaving Atlanta with win, the Buccaneers will have a chance to take back sole possession of first place in the division. If the Falcons move to 5-2, the Bucs will have to beat the Ravens just to keep pace. All of this is made more urgent by the fact that Tampa Bay’s next game will be a rematch with the Falcons on a short week of rest. Since Atlanta won the first meeting in Week Five, 36-30 in overtime, a second loss to the Falcons would constitute a season sweep and would give Atlanta a tiebreaking hammer if the division comes down to the wire. In theory, the season would still be less than half over at that point and there would be plenty of time to catch and surpass Atlanta over the next couple months, but the Bucs would prefer not to have to climb out of a hole like they did last year on their way to a third straight division title.
Face the Nation – The Buccaneers will be playing their second prime time game of the season, and the first one did not end as they would have hoped. That was the loss in Atlanta in Week Five, a Thursday night game in which the Falcons tied the game on a long field goal at the end of regulation, then won on an opening-drive touchdown in overtime. While Tampa Bay did a lot of things right on both sides of the ball to score 30 points that evening, they had too many self-inflicted wounds and couldn’t quite close it out at the end. The Buccaneers will try to put their best foot forward in front of a national audience this time around and possibly convince some of the remaining skeptics that they are indeed a real playoff contender. The Bucs have not shrunk under the Monday Night Football spotlight in the past, posting a record of 14-13 in such games, which is the seventh-best record in the NFC. Tampa Bay has won three of its five Monday-nighters over the past four seasons, including a huge victory over the Saints in December of 2022 that was a deciding factor in the division race. The Buccaneers also want to represent the Tampa Bay area with pride after the hardships that a pair of hurricanes recently visited on the region.
So about the man they call King Henry: He’s very, very big. Think 6-2 and about 250 pounds, like an old-school middle linebacker. In addition, at the age of 30 and with the wear of more than 2,300 carries (playoffs included) on his tires, he’s also still very fast. When he breaks out in the open field, he tends to outrun what would presumably be smaller and faster defenders. Henry has already reached a top speed of more than 21 miles per hour twice on breakout runs this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Henry leads the NFL in rushing and has scored nine total touchdowns through just six games in purple and black. Slowing Henry down on Monday night won’t be a one-man job, of course, but Lavonte David will be a central part of that effort, as always. David leads the Bucs with 46 tackles and can be counted on to be gap-sound in the efforts to keep Henry out of the second level. In his 13th season, David continues to patrol the field as well as any linebacker in the league, and he has seen enough through those 13 campaigns to diagnose plays quickly and take good angles to the football. The Buccaneers have actually handled Henry well in their three previous matchups with him during his time in Tennessee. Henry averaged 3.7 yards per carry and 49.5 rushing yards per game in those contests and did not find the end zone once.
The Buccaneers were keen to welcome right tackle Luke Goedeke back into their lineup in Week Six, and he was part of an offensive line that paved the way for a team-record 594 yards against the Saints, including 277 on the ground, while allowing just one sack of Baker Mayfield. Goedeke is a big man who moves well, which has allowed him to handle pass-blocking assignments at the NFL level, and he’s always been a road-grader in the run game. Goedeke is also a fiery competitor who tends to set the tone for the Bucs’ entire defensive front. Kyle Van Noy has rushed off of both ends of the Ravens’ defensive front this season, but with a little more of a concentration on the left end, which is where he will come in contact with Goedeke. Van Noy leads the Ravens with 6.0 sacks and also has a team-high 10 quarterback hits and eight tackles for loss. Despite the fact that he’s played for five different teams in the last eight years, he’s been an unusually consistent performer. He has at least five sacks in seven of those eight seasons, including a career-high 9.0 last year in his first season with the Ravens. According to NFL Next Gen Stats he has a lightning-quick average get-off of 0.86 seconds at the sack, helping to produce a strong 12.8% pressure rate.
Baltimore drafted Daniel Faalele out of Minnesota in the fourth round 2022 and he started just one game over his first two seasons. When John Simpson signed with the Jets this offseason after starting all 17 games for the Ravens at right guard in 2023, the team promoted Faalele into that spot and he has started all six games so far in 2024. Faalele is part of a reworked Ravens line that has shown steady progress this season and has helped the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing while allowing just seven sacks. A native Australian who grew up playing rugby, Faalele is an enormous former tackle with a wide wingspan who can overpower defenders in the run game, and he has good quickness in a short area. He will have to deal at some point with Calijah Kancey, the Bucs’ 2023 first-round pick who just made his 2024 debut last weekend after dealing with a calf injury. Kancey’s impact on the defense in New Orleans was instantly noticeable and he finished the game with two tackles, a sack and two tackles for loss. Kancey will challenge Faalele and the Ravens’ interior linemen with his quick first step, ability to get into creases and well-developed pass-rush toolbox.
Chris Godwin’s renaissance season continues. Now nearly three years removed from his devastating knee injury in December of 2021, and also back into the slot position he has played so well in his career, Godwin is back to peak form that sent him to the Pro Bowl in 2019. Coming off a 125-yard, two-touchdown performance in New Orleans, Godwin now leads the NFL in receptions (43) while ranking third in yards (511) and tied for first in touchdown catches (5). He has become the NFL’s newest YAC King, with 335 so far this year, and that was on full display during his dominant performance against the Saints. Godwin is adept at weaving through traffic and bouncing off tacklers, and he has become Baker Mayfield’s go-to target on third downs. Of Godwin’s 43 catches, a league-leading 30 have resulted in first downs. However, the Ravens can counter with a very experienced slot cornerback. Marlon Humphrey, the 16th-overall draft pick in 2017, currently mans that position for the Ravens and he has now appeared in 106 games with 88 starts. He has two interceptions and six passes defensed already this season, adding to his career totals of 15 and 82. Humphrey has three Pro Bowl invitations on his resume, most recently in 2022. Humphrey combines good size with speed and agility, and perhaps most importantly when working against Godwin, is a very good tackler.
