Raptors fans saw the franchise take a step in a massively different direction this past season, as Toronto said goodbye to both Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby in midseason trades.
Scottie Barnes’ emergence as an All-Star and the arrival of R.J. Barrett gave the Raptors a new core to build around, but a 25-win season was a sign that there is plenty of work still needed to return to relevance in the East. Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery could help determine how quickly that plan can fall into place.
The Raptors won’t know whether they will keep their own first-round pick until the final ping pong ball is drawn, as certain conditions could result in the selection going to the Spurs as part of the 2023 Jakob Poeltl trade. Masai Ujiri would very much like to hold onto the pick, even in a weak draft, and that was likely part of his calculus when it came to the decisions to move on from Anunoby and Siakam well ahead of the February deadline.
Here’s a closer look at the Raptors’ 2024 draft picks and what they need to happen to retain their first-round pick.
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The Raptors enter the NBA Draft Lottery with the No. 6 pick and the sixth-highest odds to land the No. 1 pick. Their pick would go to San Antonio if it landed outside the top six.
Toronto is positioned well, but the organization is far from guaranteed to keep the pick. To hold onto the pick, the Raptors can either land a top-four pick or simply not be jumped in the order by a team behind them.
The lottery determines the first four picks in the draft. If the Raptors land any one of those, they are safe. If the top four doesn’t include the Raptors but does include some combination of four of the five teams who have better odds, they are still safe.
If a team currently slated to have the No. 7 pick or lower jumps into the top four, and that top four doesn’t include Toronto, the Raptors would slide to No. 7 (or lower) and lose their pick to the Spurs.
Below are the odds for each team to land a top-four pick. The Raptors have a 37.2 percent chance of moving up, while the Grizzlies (32 percent), Jazz (26.3 percent) and Rockets (20.3 percent) are three teams Toronto fans will have to hope don’t get lucky and land in the top four.
| Team | Odds to land top-4 pick |
| Pistons | 52.1% |
| Wizards | 52.1% |
| Hornets | 50.3% |
| Trail Blazers | 50.0% |
| Spurs | 42.8% |
| Raptors | 37.2% |
| Grizzlies | 32.0% |
| Jazz | 26.3% |
| Rockets (via Nets) | 20.3% |
| Hawks | 13.9% |
| Bulls | 9.4% |
| Rockets | 7.1% |
| Kings | 3.8% |
| Warriors | 3.4% |
Though landing in the top four is the dream for Ujiri and the Raptors organization, simply hoping for chalk and watching the lottery play out without any drama would be fine for Toronto.
Here’s a look at the Raptors’ full collection of draft picks in 2024.
The Raptors currently own three picks in the 2024 NBA Draft, all of which fall in the top-35. That would shrink to two if their own first-round pick doesn’t land in the top-six.
| Pick | From | Condition |
| No. 6 | N/A | Protected top-6 |
| No. 19 | Pacers | N/A |
| No. 31 | Pistons | N/A |
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The good news for Toronto in the event of a disappointing lottery result is that Ujiri still would have assets to work with. The Raptors own the Pacers’ first-round pick (No. 19 overall) as a result of the Siakam trade, and they landed the Pistons’ second-round pick (No. 31 overall) through the Knicks in the Anunoby deal.
If the Raptors do hold onto their own first-rounder, they are set up exceptionally well to add depth to their roster. This draft isn’t loaded on talent, but three top-31 picks in a class that isn’t top-heavy by any means would give Ujiri three spins of the wheel in hopes at least one new addition can emerge as a long-term piece.
