College football conference play is (mostly) underway and the stakes will be raised accordingly. The sport dips its toes this weekend with ranked matchups in the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC featuring College Football Playoff favorites and some remaining question marks.
Let’s rank the top 10 games of Week 4, starting with a few honorable mentions and counting down.
Honorable Mention: JMU at North Carolina, Rutgers at Virginia Tech, Memphis at Navy, TCU at SMU, Iowa at Minnesota
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
What a win for Wazzu last week. It upset Washington in a new, strange rendition of the Apple Cup rivalry, secured by a dramatic goal-line stand by the Cougars. Quarterback John Mateer is a dual-threat firecracker, head coach Jake Dickert brought a celebratory cigar to the postgame news conference, and Washington State is one of the early feel-good teams. Now the Cougars have a different type of grudge match against San Jose State, which might feel scorned by WSU for helping lead the Pac-12’s poaching of the Mountain West. The Spartans haven’t faced anyone as good as Wazzu yet, but former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo abandoned the triple option and has SJSU airing it out to an undefeated start, including a road win over Air Force.
Line: Washington State -11.5
Rough start for NC State. Following the 51-10 blowout loss to Tennessee, the Wolfpack lost starting quarterback Grayson McCall to injury in a 30-20 win over Louisiana Tech. True freshman backup CJ Bailey will start against Clemson and led the comeback over Lousiana Tech, but NC State hasn’t looked at all like a team deserving of its preseason Top 25 ranking. This will be an interesting test for Clemson, as well, coming off a bye following the blowout loss to Georgia and blowout win over App State. Are the Tigers still a legit threat in the ACC and Playoff race? The spread in this one suggests as much. Either way, Saturday’s result should get us a little closer to those answers.
Line: Clemson -20.5
It’s tough to properly articulate in text, but this game just feels like leaf-changing college football in the fall. The game is on ESPN now instead of CBS, neither team is expected to be in the mix for the SEC title or CFP, Arkansas’ Sam Pittman is on the hot seat — but there’s an ineffable nostalgia hit with this matchup. It should be an interesting quarterback matchup between Arkansas’ dual-threat Taylen Green and Auburn redshirt freshman Hank Brown, who threw four touchdowns in his first start against New Mexico last week. Both teams have gantlet schedules ahead and could really use a win to keep fans from getting restless.
Line: Auburn -3
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How about Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils? The second-year head coach has ASU — picked dead last in the Big 12 preseason poll — off to an undefeated start with three solid wins, including a barnburner over Texas State last Thursday. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been workmanlike, running back Cam Skattebo is a wrecking ball, and Dillingham’s commitment to recruiting Texas is already paying dividends. Whether ASU can make any noise in the Big 12 race remains to be seen, but it could start against a puzzling Texas Tech team that escaped in overtime against Abilene Christian, got smoked by Wazzu and then hung 66 on North Texas.
Line: Texas Tech -3
Georgia Tech got right with a blowout over VMI following the close loss to Syracuse, and with a brief stay in the Top 25, it’s clear the Yellow Jackets are better than most anticipated this season. But Louisville is the team I’m more curious about. The Cardinals have climbed into the top 20 almost by default on the strength of easy wins over Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. Transfer quarterback Tyler Shough has impressed against inferior competition, but with a road trip to Notre Dame next week, this game should provide a much better sense of how viable an ACC and Playoff contender Louisville can be this season.
Line: Louisville -10.5
Mario Cristobal’s year-three warpath makes an intriguing stop in Tampa. Quarterback Cam Ward has been spectacular for the Hurricanes, ranking second in FBS in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, third in yards per attempt and fourth in QB rating, lifting Miami into the top 10. But now it has to face a USF squad that gave Alabama fits for 3 1/2 quarters. Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown has run the ball effectively but struggled through the air, and USF’s defense fissured late against the Tide, allowing 21 points over the final six minutes. A decisive road win, in prime time on ESPN, would shift the Miami hype train into high gear.
Line: Miami -16.5
The ranked Big Ten matchup you didn’t know you needed in your life. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola and his Patrick Mahomes cosplay will get another turn in the spotlight Friday night against the undefeated Illini. Raiola has been impressive for a true freshman with heavy expectations and a fan base that is desperate to return to winning football. The Cornhuskers haven’t been to a bowl game in seven seasons, haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2016 and haven’t done so at home since 2011. Enter an Illinois team that is second in FBS with a plus-8 turnover margin. The Illini haven’t been elite in other areas thus far but are stout enough to keep the optimism in Lincoln on high alert.
Line: Nebraska -8.5
It’s Alex Orji time for Michigan. The speedy junior takes over at quarterback for Davis Warren, who threw six interceptions in three games at the helm of a dismal offense. Can Orji provide enough of a spark to turn things around? The Wolverines are a home underdog for the second time in three weeks. They got clobbered by Texas in Week 2 and now get USC coming off an idle week. The Trojans are surging in The Athletic’s Playoff projector after the opening-week win over LSU and with what looks to be a much improved defense under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn. A road victory over Michigan would further boost those CFP hopes, especially with a favorable schedule the rest of the way: no Ohio State, no Oregon, and Penn State, Nebraska and Notre Dame all at home.
Line: USC -6
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Utah quarterback Cam Rising is expected to play after suffering an injury to his throwing hand in the Week 2 win over Baylor. The Utes have been predictably strong on defense and remain the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 but are traveling into the thunderdome of Stillwater. The Pokes have been somewhat of an enigma. Doak Walker-winning running back Ollie Gordon II has been mostly held in check, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman has picked up the slack. Bowman is sixth in FBS in passing yards along with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a crucial stretch for Oklahoma State, which travels to Kansas State next week and is still without star linebacker Collin Oliver. With Utah headed to Arizona next week, we should have a better handle on the top of the Big 12 by the end of the month.
Line: Utah -2.5
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The big storyline is Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel returning to Oklahoma, where he quarterbacked the program to a national championship and was later fired as offensive coordinator. Joe Rexrode penned a great retrospective on how the reunion has unfolded for all involved (worked out for Tennessee!), as well as the stakes for a game Joe describes as an “early College Football Playoff clarifier.” The Vols look like a wagon, leading the FBS in points per game at 63.7. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s 10.4 yards per attempt ranks eighth among all quarterbacks and the offense is averaging 8.1 yards per play. The Sooners are on the other end of the spectrum, averaging just 4.9 yards per play under quarterback Jackson Arnold, who is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt and still trying to find his groove. (Potentially getting wide receivers Nic Anderson and Andrel Anthony back from injury could help on that front.) Brent Venables’ defense has been solid, but it’s Tennessee that is allowing 3.1 yards per play and 4.3 points per game, both in the top three in FBS. ESPN’s “College GameDay” heads to Norman to see if the Sooners can slow down Tennessee in the first SEC showdown for Oklahoma.
Line: Tennessee -7
(Top photo of Jackson Arnold: Aaron M. Sprecher / Getty Images)
