• The 4-1 Texans haven’t even peaked yet: Houston is only ninth in overall PFF grade but has little competition in the AFC South.
• The 5-0 Vikings should be concerned: Sam Darold’s play has wavered, and the rest of the NFC North appears impressive.
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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Five games of the 2024 NFL season are now in the rearview mirror. Some teams could hardly have dreamt of a much better start, while others could have used a mulligan three weeks ago.
Although 12 regular-season games remain on the docket, organizations have started to situate themselves in their division standings. Based on what we’ve witnessed, some teams seem to enjoy a firm stranglehold atop first place — but other divisions are very much up for grabs.
Here is a ranking of how likely each current division leader will maintain that slot come January.
At 4-1, the Texans already hold a two-game lead in the AFC South race. And the scariest part might be that Houston hasn’t totally looked as elite as expected — yet.
The Texans are 18th in EPA per play on offense and 17th in EPA allowed per play on defense, not to mention ninth in overall team grade. All four of their wins have been by six or fewer points, which is a bit concerning. But if anything, it’s more likely that Houston will continue to improve throughout the season.
DeMeco Ryans’ team sits just 25th in rushing yards before contact per attempt (1.1), but that’s been with major injuries at the position. Returning Joe Mixon will make this offense complete, and that’s a scary proposition.
Defensively, there are questions about coverage alongside Derek Stingley Jr., which may only be answered if rookie Kamari Lassiter (58.0 coverage grade) makes strides.
Still, Houston doesn’t appear in any real danger in this division, which is quite possibly the weakest in football. The 2-3 Colts are 12th in overall team grade but are banged up and need more development from Anthony Richardson. Meanwhile, the Titans and Jaguars may have already turned the page to the offseason.
It turns out that the Ravens’ winless two-game start may not have been as concerning as it looked. Baltimore has rolled to three consecutive wins and now ranks second in overall team grade.
John Harbaugh’s run-oriented offense looks as dominant as expected. At 30, Derrick Henry remains a game-changer as a runner and sits second in rushing grade (90.1) through five weeks. Lamar Jackson also overcame a slow opening two weeks, with his 89.0 passing grade in Weeks 3-5 good for the second-highest in the NFL over that span.
There are still some lingering imperfections about the defense, which is 20th in EPA allowed per play. The Ravens’ 40 explosive passing plays allowed are the most in the league, and only one regular starter (Marlon Humphrey) has earned a coverage grade above 70.0.
At the same time, the Ravens — having played the hardest schedule in the NFL, per PFF ELO rankings — appear the safest bet to repeat as North champs.
The 3-2 Steelers have revealed some problematic trends across the last two weeks; the 1-4 Bengals are playing better than their record indicates but have serious climbing to do; and the 1-4 Browns generate little optimism given their offensive situation.
The Chiefs’ pursuit of a ninth straight AFC West title is in good shape yet again, especially given the team’s 5-0 start. Kansas City is sixth in overall PFF grade and retains most of the nucleus from its last two Super Bowl-winning squads.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been somewhat of a bedrock, ranking 14th in EPA allowed per play. Stout play from stars like Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie has meshed seamlessly with breakouts from Leo Chenal, Jaylen Watson and others.
Andy Reid’s offense is a bit more problematic in the early stages of the year, though. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t appeared as prolific as we’ve come to anticipate, sitting 14th in passing grade among qualifiers. The receiving corps — down Rashee Rice for the foreseeable future — and running back room — still without Isiah Pacheco — are hampered and in need of others to emerge.
The upstart Broncos and Chargers do pose somewhat of a threat, especially given their defensive aptitudes. But until Kansas City falls to a divisional opponent, let alone more than once, it would be tough to envision this division shaking out any other way.
After seven quarters of Raheem Morris’ tenure, the alarm bells were beginning to sound in Atlanta. However, after that woeful opening stretch, the Falcons have played much more like the team expected to pace the NFC South. Atlanta is 14th in EPA per play on offense, 19th in EPA allowed per play on defense and 11th in team PFF grade.
Kirk Cousins remained unfazed despite a shaky beginning, sitting 10th in passing grade and helping propel the Falcons to a trio of exhilarating comeback wins.
Star skill-position players Drake London (81.2 overall grade) and Bijan Robinson (79.6) have lived up to the hype, while Morris has also garnered contributions from Darnell Mooney and even Ray-Ray McCloud III.
Only one Atlanta defender, star safety Jessie Bates III, has put up a 70.0-plus overall grade, so more is needed from veterans Grady Jarrett, Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon. The Falcons’ inability to generate pressure (their 61 pressures rank 31st among 32 teams) is still an overarching problem that probably won’t be addressed unless another major trade goes forth.
Atlanta may currently hold a tiebreaker, but the 3-2 Buccaneers are still a dangerous team. The jury is still out on the 2-3 Saints, who have looked like two distinct teams in the early portion of 2024. The Panthers, well, aren’t in any position to currently compete.
Given that the Falcons have played the third-hardest schedule in football — and have the fifth-easiest slate left — they’re in solid pole position.
Through three games, the Bills looked virtually unstoppable. Then, formidable road matchups with the Ravens and Texans hit, casting serious doubt on Buffalo’s legitimacy.
Josh Allen remains one of the most dynamic players in football, and possessing him alone should keep the Bills’ offense top-10 in EPA per play. James Cook (76.3 rushing grade) and Khalil Shakir (76.8 receiving grade) have been staple weapons, but Allen will need more separation and contribution from players like Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman.
Likewise, Buffalo’s defense is eighth in EPA allowed per play, but the unit has been victimized greatly in the last two weeks. First, it was by the run in Baltimore (271 net rushing yards allowed) and then by the pass in Houston (eight explosive passes allowed). Dorian Williams took a nice step forward in Week 5, but better play is needed at linebacker.
The 2-3 Jets appear to be the only legitimate challenger to Buffalo in the AFC East, but now they have to survive the fallout from head coach Robert Saleh’s firing and figure things out on both sides of the ball.
Without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins (29th in team grade) don’t seem awfully intimidating, and the 1-4 Patriots have a slew of holes throughout the roster.
The high-flying, 4-1 Commanders have made for one of the most intriguing storylines in the NFL this year. Yet, it’s fair to wonder to what extent this stretch will be sustained over the next 12 games, with Washington only 14th in overall grade.
Plaudits are in order for the Commanders offense, which paces the league in EPA per play despite limited outward talent at multiple positions. Rookie Jayden Daniels has been a revelation, sitting sixth in overall grade among quarterbacks and recording the best passing grade in the NFL since Week 3.
Even then, it’s worth wondering how well the rushing attack will keep churning, especially with Jeremy McNichols producing at such a tremendous rate (7.1 yards per attempt).
Washington’s defense is certainly its Mr. Hyde, ranking 27th in EPA allowed per play. Only Bobby Wagner has recorded a PFF grade north of 72.0. The Commanders are 31st in passer rating allowed (108.3) and 29th in rushing yards allowed before contact.
Dan Quinn’s bunch being ranked this low is a combination of its own internal dilemmas and the caliber of the NFC East, which is still unknown. The 3-2 Cowboys are heavily injured and not playing coherent football on either side; the 2-2 Eagles have vacillated between impressive and ice-cold; and the 2-3 Giants have been inconsistent but slightly improved offensively.
Ultimately, there still appears a better chance that either the more talented Philadelphia or Dallas prevails over Washington.
The Vikings are 5-0 and seventh in overall team PFF grade, so what gives? Part is due to sustainability, but another is an extremely daunting division.
Minnesota’s offense is one of the best-coached, well-designed units in the league, featuring talents like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones. That’s all aided Sam Darnold in producing some highlights — but broader play that isn’t necessarily as effective. Darnold’s 65.8 passing grade is just 18th, plummeting after two sub-50.0 performances in the last two weeks.
The Vikings’ defense is similar in some facets. Brian Flores’ contingent has continued to confound some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, although largely via pressure. When those extra rushers don’t get home, it can be an issue. The Vikings have surrendered the most receiving first downs and sit 22nd in explosive pass percentage.
Not only is it likely that Minnesota will come back down to earth a bit, but also for other phenomenal teams in this division to remain steadfast. The 3-1 Lions are third in overall grade despite their offense not humming much of the year; the 3-2 Bears field a defense that’s fourth in EPA allowed per play; and the 3-2 Packers have an explosive offense with a defense that’s yet to hit its stride.
It won’t be easy for the Vikings to preserve this position.
The NFC West figured to be a competitive division in 2024. It’s been just that so far, but not in the way that most projected — leaving the 3-2 Seahawks perched in first place.
After starting 3-0, major quagmires have emerged for Mike Macdonald’s group. That list starts with a defense that’s permitted 44 first downs in the last two games, a far cry from a unit that appeared to be one of the most improved in football.
Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, is only 19th in EPA per play. Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III have been superb, but the team’s high-powered receiving corps hasn’t performed to its capabilities. It doesn’t help that the offensive line has also been underwhelming.
The Seahawks figure to remain in the mix for a playoff spot, but claiming the West crown won’t be an easy proposition. Yes, the 49ers are 2-3, but the NFL’s leading team in overall PFF grade will likely right the ship imminently. On top of that, the 2-3 Cardinals have defensive woes but could remain feisty due to an intriguing offense.
This division race will be a slog for the next few weeks, if not until the very end.
