Racing betting tips: Sunday June 30

2pts Tunbridge Wells in 1.40 the Curragh at 7/4 (General)

1pt My Mate Alfie in 2.15 the Curragh at 3/1 (General)

1pt State Actor in 4.40 the Curragh at 3/1 (General)

1pt Kayhana in 5.15 the Curragh at 7/2 (General)

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There seems to be an ongoing debate about how to bolster the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.

Reduce the distance to ten furlongs has again been suggested in a bid to make the race more attractive to connections of top horses but at least the 2023 renewal has attracted the second and third from Epsom in Ambiente Friendly and Los Angeles.

The former ran a smashing race in the Betfred Derby to chase home City Of Troy, backing up the impression he’d made in the Lingfield Trial, form that is looking all-the-stronger with Illinois going on to win the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and his own big run in the Derby.

It wasn’t all plain sailing for James Fanshawe’s colt at Epsom though, he was keen in the early stages as he tends to be and then a loose horse weaving around in front of him meant Robert Havlin had few choices as to when to make his challenge.

In the end he went down all guns blazing to a very good winner, the final 75 yards seeing City Of Troy put further distance between the pair.

There was overnight rain on Friday but the ground could dry out by Derby time on Sunday and with the Aidan O’Brien team looking sure to make it at least at even gallop, Havlin should be able to find some cover aboard his colt.

Los Angeles probably took up semi-pacemaking duties at Epsom and emerged with great credit to keep on for third albeit three lengths behind the runner-up.

One concern about him was his behaviour pre-race that day, something he hadn’t shown on his previous start at Leopardstown where he was very relaxed. Maybe the occasion got to him but he can improve again and I’m sure they’ll try to bring his stamina out on Sunday as he screams St Leger further down the line.

Matsuri is an interesting, unexposed, runner for Roger Varian. He’s bred to get better with age and his dam was a very progressive filly for Dermot Weld who thrived on fast ground.

Given his breeding there’s every chance her son will improve for the surface and step up in trip on Sunday and again the sound gallop will help him. He warrants maximum respect as a potential improver.

Of the rest, Grosvenor Square is another capable of better. He was very impressive in a Group Two at Leopardstown last backend, admittedly on heavy ground, and when he was beaten at Chester on his return, the O’Brien team were tending to need their first run of the campaign.

He has the potential to outrun his odds and could snatch a place before building to an even bigger performance later on.

I do expect Ambiente Friendly to provide his team with a big win in Ireland. Los Angeles will be ridden with more restraint than last time but I still feel the Fanshawe colt will have his measure.

As for bets on the card, I like the look of TUNBRIDGE WELLS in the GAIN Railway Stakes.

O’Brien sets us a puzzle by running both the selection and Henri Matisse, while The Strikin Viking was very impressive on his debut at York for Kevin Ryan.

However, Tunbridge Wells is the choice of Ryan Moore and was mightily impressive in beating subsequent Queen Mary runner-up Mighty Eriu over this course-and-distance last time. Cheekpieces go on for the first time and the son of No Nay Never can prove too strong for his rivals.

Commanche Falls looks a solid favourite for the Listed Jebel Ali Racecourse & Stables Dash Stakes but in a field of mainly exposed sprinters, I’m drawn to the three-year-old MY MATE ALFIE.

He was campaigned over seven furlongs last season but has been reinvented a sprinter this term and produced a good recent effort when third behind Bucanero Fuerte at Naas last time.

That run can be upgraded as he found himself short of room on the favoured stands’ rail and had to switch right to make his challenge. He did well to get as close as he did in the end.

He looks to be improving, passing horses seems to be his thing, so hopefully he’ll be finishing strongly and can pick up the pieces late.

I’m very keen on STATE ACTOR in the Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap.

He produced a career-best to win over course-and-distance on Irish Guineas weekend, another performance that can be heavily upgraded as he overcame a strong pace bias to finish off strongly from the rear of the field and get up late on.

A 9lb rise looks very fair, Colin Keane is a positive jockey booking and with a host of front-runners in this, the four-year-old could just have the race set up perfectly for him this time.

And if Stage Actor does run as I expect him to, that will be a positive boost for my final selection, KAYHANA in the Dubai Duty Free Summer Fillies Handicap.

She was second in that Curragh contest last month which was a terrific return from a filly who was very progressive throughout last season.

Her form is rock-solid, she was third to subsequent Hong Kong Derby winner Massive Sovereign in a handicap at Irish Champions Weekend, and it’s interesting she was kept in training.

She should be ready to register a peak performance and looks sure to go well.

• Preview posted 1100 BST on 30/06/2024

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