Value Bet tips: Saturday January 25

1pt win Guard Your Dreams in 12.40 Cheltenham at 11/1 (General)

1pt win Herbiers in 1.30 Doncaster at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt win Moon D’Orange in 1.50 Cheltenham at 15/2 (General)

1pt win Erne River in 3.15 Doncaster at 16/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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A clockwork D’Orange?

It’s all about picking your battles at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day and taking on Constitution Hill in the Unibet Hurdle or L’Homme Presse in the Betfair Cotswold Chase was never going to be high on the wish-list.

There is an argument that L’Homme Presse might just be in the decline these days and I’ve always fancied Stage Star could take his form to new levels when stepped up to staying trips, but Paul Nicholls’ horse has got to give 4lb to the King George third, who probably need only reproduce that Kempton form to mop up in this slightly inferior company.

Thankfully, there are more punter-friendly races elsewhere on the afternoon and MOON D’ORANGE is quite a strong fancy in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase.

Two and a half mile handicaps around the New Course can be a little bit of an acquired taste but everything about this horse’s profile strongly hints he’s going to enjoy it as he’s barely put a foot wrong in terms of jumping since being sent over fences this season. It’s the age-old dilemma of not wishing to put the mockers on a young chaser, but I’d urge anyone to go through all of his replays and look at how well he measures the obstacles.

He’s picked up some invaluable experience along the way this year, finishing third behind a couple of classy sorts in Fascile Mode and Touch Me Not (won Grade 2 since) over two miles on debut over fences before running with credit over three miles at Cheltenham’s pre-Christmas meetings in October and December.

His last run, when dropped back to an extended two miles and six at Newbury, was even more promising and he’s been nudged up just 1lb to a mark of 129 after finding only the useful-looking and well-regarded Inthewaterside too good at Newbury.

Merely a repeat of that effort could bring him right into the equation for a race like this but he’s shaping like a horse with a lot more improvement in the locker when it all slots into place off a strong gallop, and he should certainly get that here with the likes of Ginny’s Destiny and Gemirande among a bunch of probable pace-setters.

Trainer John McConnell, who has regained Moon D’Orange after he had a brief stint with Fergal O’Brien towards the end of last season, has a superb record at Cheltenham outside of the Festival (10 winners from 47 runners) and I love the fact he’s turned to Sean Bowen for this valuable prize – not forgetting Moon D’Orange could have run for less money in the novice-only event earlier on the card.

Bowen is simply riding out of his skin right now and, having booted home a load of McConnell’s winners all over the place in years gone by, the County Meath trainer has only been able to use him sparingly in recent seasons. They’re 0-3 together so far this term but from seven runners together last year, the trainer-jockey combination enjoyed two winners, a second and three thirds, so it looks highly significant Bowen rides this horse for the first time in his career and I want him running for me off a lovely racing weight here at 13/2 or bigger.

Dreams can come true

Earlier on, the aforementioned Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase is arguably lacking the sort of class act that has won the race in recent seasons.

Masaccio and especially Resplendent Grey have to be respected back in a handicap after running reasonably well in Graded novice events most recently, but the value now lies with GUARD YOUR DREAMS, who we already know has plenty of class from his time over hurdles.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse has only won once from four starts over fences this season, but he’s been pitched into some quality handicaps, not least the December Gold Cup over course and distance last month.

Beaten almost 10 lengths in the end, he actually ran really well for a very long way before the likes of Gemirande, Madara and Fugitif left him trailing late on. Those rivals have bags of experience in big Cheltenham handicaps and this weekend’s event should feel like swimming in much cooler waters for him as well as for the top two.

One of Guard Your Dreams’ career highs came when winning the Unibet Hurdle when run at the December meeting in 2021, and on that evidence it’s no surprise to see he can be competitive from chase marks in the mid-130s.

A prominent ride has often proved to be effective over the intermediate trip on the New Course – and in this race in particular – in recent seasons and it would be no surprise to see Sam Twiston-Davies send the selection for home and play a little catch-me-if-you-can from the top of the hill.

It’s hoped his usually assured jumping holds up as the likes of Jagwar and Billytherealbigred have had one or two difficulties in that department and consequently look plenty short enough in the betting.

Kerryhill was the closest I came to parting with my cash in the Betfair Cleeve Hurdle as he’s the one with most potential after just four lifetimes starts, but the breathing operation since being pulled-up on his seasonal comeback at Haydock is a bit of a red flag.

I’ll need to see just a little bit more from Ruth Jefferson’s horse before recommending him as a sensible betting proposition.

River to reach peak at old stomping ground

There are a couple to consider at Doncaster where conditions on the chase course in particular are going to be relatively lively for the time of year.

HERBIERS is the one to be on in the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase as it’s fair to say the ultra-shrewd training team of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero would not be persevering with the horse if they didn’t consider him still capable of landing a nice race or two.

A winner over hurdles and fences in the 2022-23 campaign, he spent the entirety of last season on the sidelines and hasn’t shown a great deal in two starts since resuming in November.

The comeback effort over hurdles was no doubt badly needed and his subsequent chase run at Aintree – with cheekpieces refitted – is perhaps a little harder to excuse, although it was run in thick fog so we’ve not much solid evidence of how he actually performed other than trailing in some 60 lengths adrift of the progressive novice Imperial Saint, who runs in the big handicap at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Herbiers has been cut plenty of slack by the assessor, though, and he’s looking decidedly well-treated running off 128 having been bumped up to a mark of 139 after defying 137 at Newbury in March 2023.

Good ground looks essential to the horse, who has skipped a couple of engagements in the past on account of rain, so they’ve landed on their feet in that regard and I don’t mind the jockey switch to Toby Wynne, who takes off an extra 3lb in the saddle this weekend.

There’s not a lot of pace in the race which is potentially troublesome for Herbiers but he’s fairly versatile tactically and maybe it’ll help him get into a better jumping rhythm if they don’t go too mad up front.

Which leads us to ERNE RIVER, who unseated after a mistake here in December (going perfectly well at the time) but looks for redemption in the Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase.

He’s had a spin over hurdles since the December chase mishap and wasn’t disgraced in fourth behind a subsequent winner, although I’m pretty sure trainer Nick Kent will only have been looking to fine-tune his horse for this Saturday’s race, in which Erne River was fifth off a 6lb higher mark 12 months ago.

He loves a sound surface and always seems to run up to form at Doncaster, with course figures of 11215U4, and although the likes of Snipe, Idalko Bihoue and The Changing Man have far fewer miles on the clock, it’s not like Erne River is massively over the hill aged 10, and this will have been his big target since the start of the season.

Published at 1600 GMT on 24/01/25

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