• Hope an elite wide receiver falls: Three to four running backs will be selected in the first round. Ideally, they are picked earlier, allowing wide receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown to fall.
• Create a balanced team: Anyone picking at the end of the first round will have the opportunity to build a strong team without creating a significant weakness at any position.
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Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
The Perfect Draft series integrates current ADPs from both expert and casual drafts to identify the best available picks at each selection. This draft strategy is tailored for 10-team PPR leagues, specifically for those picking eighth, ninth or 10th.
By consensus ADP, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are both top-six selections, which is a little too high when Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown are available. They are much safer bets in the first round. Even if the top five wide receivers are gone, picking A.J. Brown is a relatively safe pick in this range.
Jefferson has been the most talented wide receiver in the league for the past few seasons, but he’s falling to the back half of the first round due to the Minnesota Vikings‘ quarterback change. Jefferson averaged 21.8 PPR points per game last season with Kirk Cousins and 18.6 without him. Ideally, Minnesota’s quarterback play will be a little better with Sam Darnold than it was with the backups last year.
This is the first of many options someone will have in this range. It’s too early for a quarterback or tight end. There may be value at wide receiver, particularly if Puka Nacua falls, but more often than not, the best player available here is a running back. Only three or four will get selected in the first round, leaving at least one top-five option available for this pick.
Gibbs consistently excelled in ideal situations. On perfectly blocked plays, when he could follow his intended point of attack and against seven or fewer men in the box, he ranked between the 95th and 99th percentile in PFF rushing grade. He finished eighth in PPR points last season. It’s hard for him to reach the Christian McCaffrey level without more rushing attempts per game, but there is reason to believe his fantasy points can improve with either more touches, improved production in the receiving game and/or the offensive line helping him even more than before.
