Our top tipping team of Matt Brocklebank and Ben Linfoot discuss Thursday’s valuable evening card at Sandown featuring the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.
Royal Rhyme has missed a couple of engagements this spring due to quick-ish ground – is he the one to beat with conditions to suit in the Brigadier Gerard and what can he go on to achieve this season?
Matt Brocklebank: I haven’t kept a precise record sadly, but it seems Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has had loads of first-time-out winners this spring and Royal Rhyme may well be the next black and yellow cab off the rank.
For a few strides I thought he was well on the way to winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot when last seen in October, before weakening from the furlongs pole, and he still went on to split Point Lonsdale and Dubai Honour so evidently has a huge amount of talent.
Ease underfoot looks an absolute must for him and I’d imagine his campaign will be tailored accordingly, so it is any shock to see him now odds-on for this with most firms given the rain we’ve had on Wednesday? No surprise whatsoever and I reckon this is his race to lose, with main form rival Isle Of Jura looking a bit of a fast-ground specialist.
Ben Linfoot: It’s a disappointing Brigadier Gerard Stakes when you think of some of the names that have won this race over the years, including Hukum who beat Desert Crown 12 months ago. There are no horses of that calibre in this line-up but Royal Rhyme is the best horse in the small field of five after his clearcut win in Listed company at Ayr last September.
Fifth in the Champion Stakes after that, he has got ground conditions to suit and it will be disappointing if he can’t see off Isle Of Jura who improved out in Bahrain where he won four races. Still, that form is below Royal Rhyme’s best.
Could it be a very good night for Karl Burke and Clifford Lee with Ice Max in the Listed Heron Stakes too?
Matt Brocklebank: Ice Max has a big chance on the back of a visually impressive handicap double at Bath and Musselburgh but he’s now up in class and faces some other progressive types which probably wasn’t the case in his first two starts this season.
If you’re looking to take him on, then it might be tactics which prove his undoing as he’s not exactly going to get a breakneck gallop to help set things up and I’ve been quite taken with Balmacara this year.
His form with Zoum Zoum at Newmarket last term is looking red hot and he’s shown a good attitude in his two novice victories at Doncaster during March and April.
Clearly on the up and happy with cut underfoot, it could be significant that connections come here rather than wait for Saturday’s handicap at Haydock, or another valuable alternative at Epsom next week. Take the hint, would be my message.
Ben Linfoot: If Royal Rhyme does the business in the Brigadier Gerard, the Burke and Lee team could land the quickfire double with Ice Max given he looked so progressive when bolting up in what looked a good little race at Musselburgh last time out.
That was in a handicap and he earnt his 12lb hike in the ratings to 109, a number that gives him a standout chance in this company, but he is in against horses with plenty of potential themselves. Kikkuli, the Kingman half-brother to Frankel, is certainly one of those and Remaadd is interesting for William Haggas over this track and trip with a bit of juice in the ground. It’s tight, but I just prefer the latter.
Is there a genuine Gold Cup contender lurking among the field for the Henry II Stakes?
Matt Brocklebank: No, I’m not sure there is although I wouldn’t be willing to say that loudly enough so that Clive Washbourn might overhear me. Caius Chorister’s owner is as bullish as can be following the mare’s head second to Coltrane in the Sagaro at Ascot and she should have her conditions on Thursday which can ensure she confirms superiority over Sagaro third Sweet William and fourth home Trueshan.
But at the prices I’m tempted to side with Chesspiece as I’m not sure this will develop into a true test at the trip and this horse clearly has a bit of boot for a stayer. There is no finer man in the saddle around Sandown when it comes to judging a prominent ride than William Buick and, providing the four-year-old is a good bit sharper for his comeback run in the John Porter at Newbury, he could be a hard horse to peg back.
Ben Linfoot: It looks unlikely with Trueshan probably not as good as he once was judging by a limp reappearance at at the age of eight, while the younger horses have to take a step up to be considered Gold Cup class.
Prydwen has been improving on the all-weather but he needs to prove himself as effective at this level on turf, so the two to concentrate on are Sweet William and Caius Chorister who both beat Trueshan easily at Ascot last time out.
The David Menuisier-trained mare looked better than ever over two miles last time, but John Gosden’s Sweet William still has untapped potential as a stayer and he could turn the Ascot form around second time up.
Some flashy-looking profiles among the seven runners in the National Stakes – how do you sort the wheat from the chaff here?
Matt Brocklebank: Well, the Timeform ratings are a good place to start and they have Hawaiian (103p) 4lbs clear of Enchanting Empress (99p), although it’s worth pointing out that three others in the field have the small ‘p’ which indicates a chance of further progression, so it’s a bit of a punting tightrope.
Hawaiian’s Newbury maiden form does look very sound in hindsight and he was the 11/8 favourite that day which gives a fair indication that he’d been showing the right signs at home too. With Enchanting Empress likely to need a bit further than the minimum trip in time, I’d be with the Hannon horse but it’s not a great betting heat and I’ll probably pass.
Ben Linfoot: By running the race and seeing what happens! I must admit, I’m very selective when it comes to playing in two-year-old races at this time of year and finding an angle into this race is tough.
Like the market, I was taken with how Hawaiian overcame adversity when he stumbled out of the stalls before winning at Newbury. He showed plenty of natural speed that day. That probably makes him the form pick, but the rest of his rivals all have the potential to improve and it looks a race to watch and learn from.
So what’s the best bet on offer among the handicaps?
Matt Brocklebank: I’ve made the case for Navagio in the concluding Whitsun Cup Handicap here but would also be quite keen on the claims of Surveyor in the first. She beat subsequent Nottingham maiden winner Battle Queen at Lingfield in April and I don’t think much went right on her handicap debut at Kempton earlier this month, the steady early tempo not playing to her strengths.
Surveyor was also blocked in her run when the pace eventually increased and there are more front-runners signed up here which should ensure a good gallop. She’s drawn in eight which I don’t mind at all over a mile here and, having been left on the same mark, I can see the daughter of Pivotal coming fast and late under Ryan Moore when others are starting to paddle.
Ben Linfoot: Dual Identity has such a good record at Sandown and given he’s come down a few pounds he looks likely to run a big race in the closing Whitsun Handicap over a mile.
He lost a few places late on over 10 furlongs behind an impressive winner at Epsom last time out, but he usually comes on for a run and with trip, track and ground conditions combining nicely for him he looks sure to deliver another big Sandown effort.
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