As the NBA season nears, fantasy basketball draft data starts to solidify a bit.
With some early draft data in place, I wanted to go through each round and pick out a “draft bust.” I’m using the average draft position list provided by FantasySP and looking at things in terms of being in a 10-team points league. We’ll cover the first six rounds.
Let’s get right to it!
Explore the best in-season tool to manage lineup/start decisions including waiver pickups, projections, trade suggestions, trade value charts, rest of season rankings, power rankings, and tons more with Fantasy Assistant. Use our fantasy basketball trade analyzer to break down trade scenarios.
As you can imagine, the toughest round to choose a draft bust in is definitely the first round. Embiid is the only one who I actually paused on when I was going through the options, and the only reason why I did is because of his injury history.
Embiid hasn’t reached 70 games in a single season, some of that due to resting, but most times due to injury. He’s only reached 60 games in half of his eight NBA seasons and is coming off a 2023-24 season in which he only played 39 games.
Embiid is a fantasy star when on the court, with big point and rebound totals and really well-rounded numbers, but I needed a bust choice and his injury/resting history makes him the best option for that in round 1.
In the second round, I see Mitchell with the biggest potential to be a draft bust. He has solid averages all around, but is coming off a season in which all of his shooting percentages fell.
He’s just 28 years old, so he shouldn’t be past his prime years yet, but the decrease in shooting percentages at least makes me pause a bit. I was also a bit surprised to see that he’s not been the most available player over the past several seasons.
He played 79 games as a rookie and 77 in his sophomore season, but hasn’t topped 69 games since. Mitchell played in 55 games last season, and that mixed with the lower percentages last season, is enough for me to label him the bust in round 2.
DeRozan is my bust pick in round 3. Most of it has to do with him being 35 years old, and also because he’s on a new team now.
He plays a ton of games still (79 last season), but eventually age will catch up and slow him a bit. His field goal percentage was down overall last season, so maybe that was the start of his decline.
With , and already in Sacramento, DeRozan is unlikely to match the numbers he put up in Chicago. I still think he can be a solid fantasy asset, but he just isn’t likely to lead fantasy teams like he could in the past.
Ball was a pretty easy pick in round 4, and that’s because of his injury history across four NBA seasons. Ball has gone over 55 games in just one season, with the past two seasons at just 58 games combined.
He can fill up the stat sheet when he’s on the court, and if he stays healthy, Ball could be one of the bigger draft steals. But going into the season, I would not feel confident about drafting Ball, even in the fourth round.
I’m a huge proponent of fantasy players who play often/all the time, so it pains me to pick Bridges as the bust of round 5. I think he’ll be a great fantasy option, but a decrease in points will greatly affect his fantasy output.
Bridges averaged 19.6 points per game last season with Brooklyn. He’s now with New York, who has as the clear top option. , , and are also pretty average/good scorers, and Bridges will probably be the second or third option (at best) on the court at all times.
Bridges can still make a fantasy impact because he plays every game, but he’s really not that great of a rebounder or passer, and with less points per game, I see him as a disappointing round 5 draft pick.
Another draft bust is here because of his injury history. Porzingis is already dealing with an injury that could keep him out the couple months of the season, and I’d expect his ADP to keep falling as that news is read by fantasy owners.
He’s a great fantasy option when he’s on the court, even on a stacked Celtics team, but no player missing that much of the season is a great pick, even in round 6. In his nine-year career, he’s topped 70 games just once, and only reached 60 games in two other seasons.
With a couple months of games already taken off the upcoming season, I would not be comfortable drafting Porzingis in round 6. Even if he doesn’t miss a game after returning to the court (he will), he’d have to put up massive numbers to reach his draft pick value. No thank you.
