The men’s and women’s singles tennis tournaments are underway at the Paris Olympics. On Tuesday, the men will continue the second round while the women enter the third round.
Where can we find betting value in the next batch of matches?
Taylor Fritz cruised through the first round with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Alexander Bublik as he continues to play well on clay this season.
Fritz came into the event with a 13-6 clay record for the year, which included making the Munich final, Madrid semifinals, and Italian Open quarterfinals. It all culminated with him reaching the French Open round of 16, a career-best result at Roland-Garros.
According to Tennis Abstract, Fritz now owns the ATP’s 12th-best clay-adjusted Elo rating.
Jack Draper won his opener in straight sets over Kei Nishikori, though it’s a less notable win given that Nishikori is just 1-3 this season and continues to struggle with injuries in the latter stages of his career. Draper entered this tournament with a 4-6 clay record in 2024 and is just 8-10 on clay in his career.
While the Olympics are best-of-three matches, it isn’t a great sign Draper hasn’t been able to advance past the second round in any of the three majors so far this year, most notably getting bounced in the first round at the French Open.
According to Massey Ratings’ model, Fritz is projected to win this match 65% of the time.
In their lone head-to-head meeting this year in April, the American won a tight three-setter on clay 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1), coming up just short of covering this spread. Given how much success Fritz has enjoyed since that match, we should be confident he can get the victory slightly more comfortably this time around.
American Tommy Paul advanced to the second round following a fairly routine 6-3, 6-4 victory over Darderi Luciano. He was broken just once and faced two break points the entire match, so it was a promising start for the world No. 13.
Paul entered these games with a 31-11 record in 2024 and is coming off a strong grass season after advancing to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and winning a title at Queen’s Club. He also went 7-3 during the clay swing, which included making the semifinals at the Italian Open.
His improved play on clay this year is notable for someone with just a 45.8% career win percentage on the surface — easily his worst. Per Tennis Abstract, his recent results have helped move up to 17th overall in clay-adjusted Elo rating.
He’ll take on Jakub Mensik next in a match, and it’s one where we should expect him to continue to find success. While Mensik also moved past the first round in straight sets, the 18-year-old came into the tournament with a 15-11 record for the year and is just 2-5 versus top-20 opponents over his young career.
Massey Ratings projects an 86% win probability for Paul with a straight-sets win being the predicted outcome. This bet looks like a good value at plus odds.
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