The dust has finally settled on the most active portion of the 2024 NFL offseason. Free agency and the draft are in the rearview mirror, and the likely structure of the NFL’s 32 teams is coming into focus.
NFL fans are going to start separating the projected contenders from the pretenders in the early stages of the offseason. They’ll also assess which sleeper teams could be better than expected and which clubs might be overrated in 2024.
There’s no better time to assess these possibilities than after the NFL’s schedule release. Key information is revealed during that event — including the order in which teams play one another and which teams end up with the most beneficial bye weeks — and it better allows NFL fans, fantasy owners, and bettors to assess which squads might get off to fast starts and which might start slowly.
That makes mid-May a good time to start thinking about each NFL team’s over/under win total for the upcoming season. Gamblers may not place wagers on them straight away, but the schedule release still represents a great opportunity to check in on the expectations for each club.
Which NFL teams look like the best bets to exceed — or fall short of — those expectations? Sporting News breaks down the best over/under win total bets as the NFL’s 2024 schedule arrives.
MORE: Which NFL teams have the easiest, hardest schedules in 2024?
There are three NFL teams with projected 11.5-win totals for 2024, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. The Chiefs, 49ers, and Ravens are believed by the book to be the best teams in the NFL, with the odds suggesting that Kansas City is the best of the bunch.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Panthers and Patriots are tied with the lowest projected win totals of 2024 at 4.5 apiece. Carolina has slightly longer odds of going over, so bettors evidently expect that the Panthers will be the worst team in the NFL again this season.
Below is a look at the projected win totals for all 32 of the NFL’s teams:
| Team | Win totals | Over odds | Under odds |
| Bears | 8.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Bengals | 10.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Bills | 10.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Broncos | 5.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Browns | 8.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Buccaneers | 7.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Cardinals | 6.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Chargers | 8.5 | -150 | +125 |
| Chiefs | 11.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Colts | 8.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Commanders | 6.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Cowboys | 10.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Dolphins | 9.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Eagles | 10.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Falcons | 9.5 | -140 | +115 |
| 49ers | 11.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Giants | 6.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Jaguars | 8.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Jets | 9.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Lions | 10.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Packers | 10.5 | +130 | -160 |
| Panthers | 4.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Patriots | 4.5 | -160 | +130 |
| Raiders | 6.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Rams | 8.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Ravens | 11.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Saints | 7.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Seahawks | 7.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Steelers | 8.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Texans | 9.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Titans | 6.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Vikings | 6.5 | -150 | +125 |
Betting the Packers to be an 11-win team when they might not even be the best team in their division might sound like a risk, and the plus-money odds seem to agree with that assessment.
That said, backing the Packers is all about believing in the form Jordan Love showed at the end of last season. From Week 11 on, Love led the Packers to a 6-2 regular-season record and completed 70.25 percent of his passes for 2,150 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just one interception. He logged a 112.7 passer rating during that span and nearly led Green Bay to an NFC championship game appearance.
The Packers play in a tough division, but it’s worth noting they had a 4-2 divisional record last season and beat the Lions handily on the road on Thanksgiving. Green Bay should only get better as its young offense matures, so expecting a two-win improvement is within reason.
Add in that Green Bay has a strong home-field advantage and gets to play some of its toughest opponents, including the 49ers and the Dolphins, at Lambeau Field, and they should have a chance to exceed expectations in 2024.
MORE: How Jordan Love outperformed Aaron Rodgers in his first season as starting QB
The Ravens are another team with a high win total that could be a valuable over/under pick. Baltimore won 13 games last season, but it might be harder for them to approach that total again in 2024.
Why? For one, the Ravens are poised to have a tougher schedule in 2024. They have the fourth-hardest projected strength of schedule, per Sharp Football Analysis, so Baltimore will have little room for error as it looks to navigate one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.
Speaking of, the AFC North figures to be better in 2024 than it was last season. The Bengals will get Joe Burrow back after he missed half of last season with a wrist injury, which should make them a bigger threat. Meanwhile, the Steelers now have Russell Wilson and Justin Fields at quarterback rather than Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, or Mitch Trubisky, so that could allow them to better compete with Baltimore’s defense.
It isn’t just the schedule that’s a concern for the Ravens. They also lost three starters from last season’s offensive line: guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler and right tackle Morgan Moses. Baltimore has some younger players like Ben Cleveland, Andrew Voorhees, Daniel Faalele, and second-round rookie Roger Rosengarten, who could be ready for larger roles. Still, it may take time before the line fully jells.
That could make for a slow start for the Ravens, especially if they have a lot of early-season divisional matchups or face some of their strongest opponents in the season’s first month.
The bad news for the Rams: they lost Aaron Donald to retirement
. The eight-time All-Pro called it quits during the offseason and left Los Angeles with a gaping hole in its defense.
The good news: the Rams still have a great-looking offense that features quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. That unit should do enough to keep Los Angeles competitive in the NFC West — even if the team’s defense struggles early as it looks to replace Donald.
The Rams invested heavily in their pass rush in the 2024 NFL Draft, selected edge usher Jared Verse, and defensive lineman Braden Fiske with their first two picks. Those two could be enough to help Los Angeles’ defense stay competitive, especially with the Cardinals still rebuilding and the Seahawks navigating a coaching change. That could set the Rams up to get four or five wins in the division, and their 17th-ranked strength of schedule should enable them to climb over .500 barring any significant injuries.
MORE: Why Rams GM Les Snead hopes Aaron Donald will return for Super Bowl run
The Saints have long been a solid NFL team and a perennial playoff contender, but their run seems poised to end at some point soon. New Orleans continues to negotiate itself out of salary cap hell, but it has lost some of its top defensive talents in recent years, like Marcus Williams, and doesn’t have a true answer at quarterback after the merely solid Derek Carr.
That may have been enough for the Saints to stay in contention when the NFC South was weak. However, it no longer appears to be, as the Falcons added Kirk Cousins to an already-strong roster to become the division favorites, and the Buccaneers won the division last year in Baker Mayfield’s first season as the team’s starting quarterback.
The Saints are no longer guaranteed to have a winning record in the NFC South, so that will make it harder for them to find eight-plus wins on their schedule, especially with the team facing three of its most difficult opponents — the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Packers — on the road to go with some tough home matchups against the Eagles and Rams.
Perhaps the NFC South will disappoint again and allow New Orleans to hang around .500 again, but eventually, the wheels have to fall off for the middling Saints.
The Commanders will likely be a popular sleeper team entering the 2024 NFL season, and with good reason. They might not have the personnel needed to mount a legitimate playoff run, but they have significantly upgraded their roster in Adam Peters’ first year with the club.
Most notably, the team spent the No. 2 overall pick on LSU’s Jayden Daniels. The rookie played five years of Div. I college football at Arizona State and LSU, so he has plenty of experience. That should allow him to emerge as a solid starter early in his career, even if he endures some growing pains.
Daniels’ addition has a similar feeling to Robert Griffin III’s in Washington. Daniels has high-end playmaking ability, and his legs will be a weapon that helps the Commanders stay competitive.
Washington doesn’t necessarily have an easy schedule, with multiple games against the Cowboys and Eagles on the docket in addition to having to play the entire NFC North, but the Commanders should be able to challenge their lower-end competition like the Cardinals, Giants, Panthers, and Titans. That could give them a chance to reach seven or eight wins without needing too many upsets.
MORE: Why Jayden Daniels is drawing Robert Griffin III, Lamar Jackson comparisons
The Giants posted a 6-11 record in 2024, so some might expect them to improve after retooling their offensive line and adding playmakers Malik Nabers and Brian Burns to their offense and defense, respectively.
All those moves can’t erase two key truths. First, the Giants lost Saquon Barkley to the Eagles in free agency. That will hamper their running game, which will now rely on Devin Singletary, Eric Gray, and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. to carry it.
The other issue is that Daniel Jones is still the Giants’ quarterback. The 2019 first-round pick regressed badly in 2023 after a solid 2022, struggling with sacks and turnovers before suffering a torn ACL late in the season. Perhaps he will cut down on those negative plays in 2024, but it remains to be seen how close to 100 percent he will be once the season begins.
Behind Jones, the Giants have Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Nathan Rourke on the roster. None inspires much confidence if Jones can’t show improvement, so that could make New York’s offense frustrating to watch once again.
While the Giants’ pass rush should be strong enough to keep them in some games, it probably won’t be enough to make them a seven-win team barring a resurgent season from Jones.
