The betting public is doing pretty well this NFL season.
Last week there were five sides that had more than 70% of the bets on them: Bengals -5.5, Lions +1.5, Eagles -3, Commanders -9.5 and Chiefs +1.5. Those teams went 5-0 against the spread.
Public bettors like favorites and it has been a good year for those teams. Favorites this season are 56-46-4 against the spread, covering 54.9% of the time, according to Covers.com. The house always wins, but it has been a pretty good seven-week stretch for casual NFL bettors.
Here’s a look at Week 8 of the NFL season from a betting standpoint, with all odds from BetMGM:
The Los Angeles Rams are getting healthier. Cooper Kupp is slated to return. Puka Nacua was listed as questionable, which means he might be back too. That gives the Rams plenty of hope for their Thursday night game against the Minnesota Vikings. It’s also Sean McVay on a short week, which helps.
The Vikings have undoubtedly been the better team. That’s why they’re 3-point favorites. Losing to the Detroit Lions last week is no reason to downgrade them. They should be 3-point favorites. But the return of Kupp and potential return of Nacua should give anyone pause before taking the Vikings, even if they have been the better team.
For weeks, Deshaun Watson was so bad that it was reasonable to wonder if the Cleveland Browns were committing franchise malpractice by continuing to start him. Jameis Winston certainly has his flaws, but he also can make some plays.
We get back on the Jameis coaster this week. Watson is done for the year and Winston will start. There will be severe ups and downs, but won’t the offense look better by default? The Browns are 8.5-point home underdogs and while it’s hard to get in front of the Baltimore Ravens bus right now, it wouldn’t be that surprising if the Browns have a bit of a bounce now that they’re playing a competent (at times) quarterback.
Tyreek Hill’s proclamation to strike up the flipping band now that Tua Tagovailoa is back in the lineup likely reflected the excitement of the entire Miami Dolphins team. They’re unwatchable without Tagovailoa. With him, they’re one of the best offenses in football.
There’s some skepticism because the Dolphins are just 3.5-point favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals. That seems low. Unless Tagovailoa returns and isn’t the same player, we should assume the Dolphins revert to being very good on offense. And we know they beat losing teams. Strike up the flipping band.
If Kupp is playing, Matthew Stafford will find him. Kupp’s receiving total at BetMGM is 67.5, which seems a bit low. It has to factor in Kupp coming off a multi-week injury. And maybe if Nacua returns, that eats into Kupp’s production. But Kupp is still a fantastic player when healthy, he often gets as many targets as he can handle, and maybe there’s a small part of the Rams that wants to show the rest of the NFL he’s healthy in case they are interested in trading for him. Anytime Kupp plays and his total is in the 67.5 range, it’s worth looking at the over.
What do we make of the Seahawks? They went 3-0 to start the season, then 0-3 over their next three but rebounded with a convincing road win over the Atlanta Falcons last week. The Buffalo Bills are very good, though they haven’t been as good against their best competition. They’re 3-point favorites over the Seahawks on Sunday. Seattle has a great home-field advantage, the offense can move the ball and the defense is finally relatively healthy. If the Seahawks can get the upset here, we might need to start talking about them winning the NFC West this season.
When the NFL scheduled the Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers for Sunday night, it had to envision a game between two of the NFL’s best teams. NBC will still get ratings, but maybe just to see which team digs a deeper hole.
The 49ers are 3-4 and the Cowboys are 3-3. Whether it’s injuries or just poor play, both teams have disappointed over the first part of the season. The 49ers are 4-point favorites, which speaks to how bad the Cowboys have been. Dallas should get players back, including perhaps Micah Parsons, but it’s a team that just hasn’t played well all season. The one reason for hope: The Cowboys have played much better on the road than at home, where they’ve been blown out three times.
At some point in the far distant future, a day will come when the NFL realizes we really don’t want to see the New York Giants in prime time.
The NFL’s fascination with putting the Giants on prime time gives us a bad Monday night matchup. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-point favorites and based on last week maybe it should be more. The Giants looked horrendous in a 28-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Steelers offense was very good in a 37-15 win over the New York Jets. Russell Wilson got his first start of the season and the Steelers responded well. An offensive lineman injury rarely changes the entire outlook of a team, but Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas (foot) is done for the season, New York couldn’t block without him last week and has been bad without him in the past too. How will the Giants hold off the Steelers’ pass rush?
