After a week where the favorites finally dominated, we’re back searching for more value opportunities with our NFL Week 7 picks.
Last week, teams favored by a field goal or more went a perfect 11-0, while those favored by five or more points finished 5-0. These results were a stark contrast to previous weeks, where the biggest favorites had a losing record.
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Before we dive into the analysis, PoolGenius has special offers for Sporting News readers, including up to 55 percent off football subscriptions and a free all-access trial for NFL Week 7.
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Making accurate predictions is just one part of increasing your chances in a football pool. While point spreads provide a reliable estimate of each team’s win probability, consistently beating Vegas odds is a challenge for most.
The real advantage in pick’em pools comes from applying game theory—gaining points where your opponents don’t. This involves predicting not only game outcomes but also anticipating how popular each pick will be among your competitors, allowing you to find NFL Week 7 value picks that others might overlook.
Once you understand each team’s win odds and expected pick popularity, two key strategies can improve your success in football pick’em pools:
The selections below present some of the best opportunities to differentiate your NFL Week 7 picks from your opponents without taking on excessive risk. However, in a season-long pool, picking all five could be too risky, so consider each option carefully based on your specific situation.
To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick’em pool should influence your picks, check out our free articles on winning football pool strategy, or use our Football Pick’em Picks product to get customized recommendations for your pool.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 6:30 pm ET on Tuesday, October 16th, but this information can change between publication and kickoff. Our product updates all data multiple times per day to provide the latest numbers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-2, at home, and it looks like they’ll be starting Russell Wilson at QB this week. The New York Jets are 2-4, have already fired their head coach, and recently traded for WR Davante Adams.
Interestingly, the Jets are the favorite this week. However, the public is leaning more heavily toward the Steelers. This creates an opportunity to take the favored Jets at a value this week.
The New Orleans Saints will be playing their third game in 11 days, in a tough stretch where they lost to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, played Tampa Bay at home last Sunday, and now face Denver on a short week in the Week 7 Thursday Night game.
During that span, they lost their starting quarterback, Derek Carr, and will likely be without both starting wide receivers, Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). These are some of the reasons Denver is now the favorite, yet the public is still picking the Saints slightly more often.
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We have several potential upset value picks this week, but right now the best combination of upset odds and pick popularity is with the Seattle Seahawks, despite three straight losses.
This matchup between the Seahawks and Falcons looks like it could be a high-scoring affair, with Atlanta putting up 74 points over the last two games, and Seattle ranking first in the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards.
With only 22 percent of the public picking Seattle, they make for a compelling upset pick in weekly prize pools.
Survivor pools finally saw a week of wins, with every big favorite securing a victory, allowing over 98 percent of entries to advance.
Looking ahead to this week, two teams are drawing the most interest for survivor picks. The Buffalo Bills (-9 vs. Tennessee) are the biggest favorite, attracting 32 percent of public picks. The Washington Commanders (-8 vs. Carolina) are slightly more popular, with 34 percent of picks.
These two teams are favored in part because only three other teams are favored by more than 3.5 points, and those three teams have a combined record of 4-13 this season. There’s a significant drop in popularity after the top two teams, with the Los Angeles Rams at 11 percent, followed by the Cincinnati Bengals (7 percent) and Jacksonville Jaguars (6 percent).
Several of these teams have relatively low future value, particularly Washington, the Rams, and Jacksonville. The strategy this week depends on whether you opt for the more popular, bigger favorites or choose a slightly riskier path to avoid the top two teams, aiming for a higher-risk, higher-reward scenario.
The PoolGenius data can give you an edge in identifying which teams make the most sense for your pool, given the remaining pool size and other rules features for your Week 7 survivor picks..
Maximizing your edge in football pick’em contests requires not only analyzing win odds and pick popularity but also managing the overall risk in your selections. Some weeks, it makes sense to be strategic with upset picks, while other weeks may call for a more conservative approach.
The decision depends on factors such as potential rewards and your position in the standings. Taking multiple risks may not always be justified if the reward doesn’t outweigh the risk. Strategic balance is key for long-term success.
That’s why we developed the Football Pick’em Picks product. It’s the only tool that provides customized weekly pick recommendations for NFL and college football pick’em pools, using advanced algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Whether you’re in game-winner pools, point spread pools, confidence pools, or pools with season and/or weekly prizes, this product has you covered. Try it out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 7 picks!
EXPERT PICKS: Football Pick’em picks from PoolGenius
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