• Quarterback shuffles across the board: The Patriots and Saints will start new rookies, while the Raiders also switched things up under center.
• Road teams favored heavily this week: The markets expect the away team to win 10 of this week’s 14 contests.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription:Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
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Thursday night kicks off Week 6 with a battle between two division rivals looking to redeem themselves coming off tough home losses as heavy favorites.
The Niners have struggled on the road this season, holding an 0-2 record with losses in Minnesota and LA in September. A lot has been placed on Brock Purdy’s shoulders as this team awaits the return of Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) to the lineup. While wins have been difficult to come by, Purdy has otherwise played well, earning the league’s third-highest PFF passing grade (84.0).
That will be a challenge for this Seahawks defense amid a rash of injuries to key contributors over recent weeks. This past week, Seattle lost at home by two scores, allowing the Giants their highest scoring total of the season.
This is undoubtedly a matchup to watch every time these two teams face off.
Despite taking a step back this past week, Metcalf has put together a fantastic start to the season. The sixth-year receiver has seen 42 targets — a top-10 mark at the position — leading him to a top-25 rank in yards per route run among receivers. While his grading hasn’t been stellar, this is a chance for Metcalf to break out against a corner he’s familiar with.
Ward, who comes into this one questionable with a knee injury, has largely struggled in recent weeks. The last three games have particularly been a challenge for the veteran corner, as Ward stands with just a 43.2 PFF coverage grade — 92nd out of 99 qualifying corners. The Niners’ corner usually plays well in this matchup, but the injury raises concern for this secondary.
The Jaguars start a two-game “homestand” in London, a location this franchise is very familiar with. During Trevor Lawrence’s time under center, the Jaguars hold a 3-1 record in the UK, including a clean 2-0 sweep in 2023. That’s an encouraging sign of a possible turnaround coming for Jacksonville after the team captured its first win of the season this past week.
Chicago comes into this one fresh off a pair of home wins in back-to-back weeks, including its best performance of the year against the Panthers. However, the Bears have seen their fair share of struggles when having to travel, dropping each of their two games on the road this season in Houston and Indianapolis. This will be their opportunity to buck that trend and string together three straight wins.
After numerous struggles to start the year, the Jags’ franchise passer put together an incredible performance this past week, earning him an 85.7 PFF passing grade — his highest since Week 14 of 2022. Lawrence racked up the highest yards per attempt (11.3) and adjusted completion percentage (85.7%) of Week 5. That production was something that this Jags offense sorely lacked through the first four games.
In the Bears’ secondary, Byard is also coming off a phenomenal performance in Week 5. The veteran safety generated his third-highest overall defensive grade (91.7) of his career, powered by his first interception of the season and a 39.6 passer rating when targeted. The Bears will be without safety Jaquan Brisker in this one, putting more pressure on Byard to hold the line.
Both Washington and Baltimore have erupted offensively in recent weeks, laying claim to the top two EPA per play offenses in the league through five games — setting the table for what should be an explosive matchup.
The Commanders’ ascent to the upper echelon of offenses has taken the league by storm, mainly behind the impressive play of first-year quarterback Jayden Daniels. The second overall pick has been masterful outside the pocket, generating the league’s highest grade when not kept between the tackles (95.4). That’s very reminiscent of the signal-caller he faces off with in this matchup.
The comparisons between Daniels and Ravens star Lamar Jackson continue to dominate the discussion, but what’s being lost in it all is how far the former MVP continues to push his game. Per PFF IQ’s stable quarterback metrics, Jackson grades out in the 88th-plus percentile in six of seven facets, including Clean Pocket grade (94th), First & Second Down grade (91st) and Sack Rate (97th).
Veterans Derrick Henry and Bobby Wagner are still setting the standard at their respective positions.
Baltimore’s bruising back has been on a tear to start the year, having generated the highest rushing grade (90.1) among backs with 40 or more carries. Over the last three games, Henry has bowled his way to 219 yards after contact, the most in the NFL and more than only six other backs have had in total rushing yardage over that span.
The leader of this Commanders defense is also putting together a timeless performance in his 13th season. Wagner holds the highest run defense grade (89.9) among linebackers with at least 60 run defense snaps, highlighted by his five tackles for loss or no gain on run downs.
After falling behind 23-10 in the first half this past week, Arizona stormed back with an impressive 11-point fourth quarter comeback against the Niners. Three second-half takeaways made all the difference, highlighted by a fourth quarter forced fumble in the red zone that could have given the 49ers an eight-point lead with under six minutes left in the game if they broke the plane.
Timely turnovers was also a theme for the Packers in Week 5, as they turned a pair of third-quarter takeaways into Tucker Kraft touchdowns. Taking advantage of turnover differential is crucial to success, and with a league-leading 14 takeaways, Green Bay can turn the tide against anyone.
After a pair of stagnant offensive performances to close out September, Kyler Murray and this Arizona offense woke up in Week 5. Although he had just 195 passing yards, Murray earned his second-highest passing grade of the year (73.8) and notched three more big-time throws, giving him an NFL-leading 11.
That could prove to be difficult against a ball-hawking safety like McKinney. This past week, the Packers safety recovered a fumble and recorded his fifth pick of the year — the most in the NFL — giving him an interception in every game this year. Murray will want to tread lightly when pressing the ball downfield in this one.
The third overall pick in the 2024 draft, Drake Maye has officially been tabbed as the Patriots’ starting signal-caller over veteran Jacoby Brissett. Although Brissett was able to limit negative throws to some success (49th percentile), he was largely unable to provide this offense the spark it desperately needed. Now, it’s Maye’s turn to get acclimated to the speed of the pro game while under constant fire.
What a way to get welcomed to the NFL in a duel with one of the NFL’s best young passers in C.J. Stroud. The Texans signal-caller stands at or near the top of the league in a variety of facets, including late-down passing grading (90.1) and under pressure grade (68.2). Sustaining those marks will give Houston a chance to win every week.
New England’s pass protection has been far below serviceable this season, possessing the third-lowest team pass blocking grade (49.4) and the lowest pass block efficiency rating (72.1) in the NFL. Jacobs recently entered the lineup at RT and hasn’t done well to gain his footing, holding the lowest pass blocking grade (28.5) at the tackle position.
Anderson, the 2023 defensive rookie of the year, is due for a big outing after hitting a lull in production the past two weeks, totaling just six pressures on 59 pass-rush snaps. That’s a sizable drop from his 15 pressures and three sacks in the two games before that. Expect the talented edge rusher to finish with a solid day at the end of this one.
After going down on Monday night due to an oblique tear, Saints quarterback Derek Carr is expected to miss the next few weeks, making way for first-year passer Spencer Rattler to start under center. He showed flashes in the preseason, but inconsistency was a notable issue — one his team hopes he’s ironed out while learning on the sideline.
Having last played in Atlanta on Thursday night, a well-rested Bucs team will be looking for redemption after losing in overtime and allowing an insane 509 yards through the air. On the other hand, Baker Mayfield has been dealing in recent weeks, holding the NFL’s highest passing grade (90.1) over the last two games. Without a doubt, Tampa will be motivated coming into its second straight divisional matchup.
Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore isn’t the only WR-CB matchup you won’t want to miss in this one.
The Bucs’ breakout corner had some troubles this past week, where he allowed seven receptions into his coverage for 126 passing yards permitted. Despite surrendering that type of production, McCollum has strung together a solid enough resume thus far to retain the second-highest coverage grade (89.3) among corners.
He faces off with stellar receiver Chris Olave, who is coming off his worst game of 2024, totaling just two catches for 10 yards. His primetime output was a surprising drop after the Saints wideout had gone on a three-game streak of producing 85.0-plus receiving grades. That effort allowed Olave to maintain his standing as a top-three graded receiver in the NFL this season. Rattler will want to find him early and often if this team is to have a chance.
Finding offensive production has been an uphill battle for Cleveland, with issues ranging from poor pass protection to inconsistent quarterback play, resulting in the lowest EPA per play in the NFL through five weeks. Last week’s problems were particularly alarming given Washington’s lapses on defense. The Browns totaled just 207 total net yards.
Now, they face an Eagles team that is coming off a bye week and looking to redeem its 17-point loss to the Bucs in Week 4. This Philadelphia pass rush is still brimming with talent, headlined by DI Jalen Carter, who holds an 84.9 PFF pass-rush grade, the third-highest among interior defenders. That’s a scary matchup that the Browns should be worried about this week.
After missing Philadelphia’s Week 4 matchup, Johnson returns to the lineup rested and looking to build on his incredible performance to start 2024. Before going down, the veteran tackle had put together a perfect 100.0 pass block efficiency rating and a 100% pass pro win rate, having allowed no pressure across 87 pass sets.
With concern growing around Myles Garrett’s injury, more attention will turn to other pieces of this Browns pass rush. Za’Darius Smith will be one of those names, as he currently stands as the team’s second-leading pressure generator (9) and sack recorder (3). He will have his work cut out for him in this one.
Both the Colts and Titans have seen their fair share of tough injuries to start the year.
Indy spent this past week navigating a game without starting quarterback Anthony Richardson or franchise back Jonathan Taylor, as well as elite blockers in C Ryan Kelly and OT Braden Smith. And now, this team will be down receiver Michael Pittman Jr. for an extended period.
While not quite as severe, untimely injuries have also struck Tennessee, with quarterback Will Levis going down early in the Titans’ last game with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Although he managed to return to practice on Wednesday as a full participant after a bye, his health will be under the microscope in this one.
After missing the past two games with a neck injury, Kelly came back to practice as a full participant to start the week. The veteran center will face a tough matchup in his return — particularly on the ground, where he possesses a respectable 68.2 run blocking grade.
Tasked with breaking through this powerful Colts offensive line is first-year interior defender T’Vondre Sweat, who lays claim the position’s fourth-highest run defense grade (79.8). In his last outing, Sweat generated a fantastic 91.2 run defense grade, highlighted by a -3.0 yard average depth of tackle on run downs.
The hope was for this Chargers team to get healthy during the bye week, but with the release of the early week practice report, concerns are still lingering with this roster. Included in this week’s injury report are Edge Joey Bosa, QB Justin Herbert, RT Joe Alt, LT Rashawn Slater and K Cameron Dicker, just to name a few.
That may not bode well for the Chargers coming up against a Broncos team that is riding high after a decisive divisional win this past week, its third straight victory. This defense has found new life in recent weeks, evidenced by its jump in takeaways last week, where Denver snagged three interceptions — including a 100-yard pick-six from Pat Surtain II.
The Broncos’ second-year corner out of Iowa is hitting his stride heading into October. Moss secured his first career interception this past week, putting a cap on an incredible three-game stretch that has earned him the fourth-highest coverage grade (90.3) at the position since Week 3.
Having also dealt with injury this year, Palmer hasn’t been able to string together much production. In his last outing, the Chargers receiver totaled just 36 yards on three receptions, with a majority of it coming from a single catch. If the Chargers are to get this passing game going, they’re going to need more out of guys like Palmer.
After a tumultuous ride with Gardner Minshew under center to start the year, the Raiders opted to sit him down late midway through their Week 5 matchup in favor of Aidan O’Connell and have now made that change official. It remains to be seen if O’Connell will show enough to instill confidence in this team, or if this problem will persist.
The Steelers are also staring down a quarterback controversy with Russell Wilson opening the week as a full participant in practice. Despite a drop-off in recent weeks, Mike Tomlin’s staff has opted to stay with Justin Fields getting the first-team reps in practice. With the trade deadline growing closer, this team will need to find its answer sooner rather than later.
After missing the first four games due to injury, Seumalo returned in Week 5 to put up a solid performance on the interior of this line. The veteran guard was excellent on the ground, having earned an 83.1 PFF run-blocking game in his season debut.
With the injury to Christian Wilkins rendering him out for the foreseeable future, attention turns to the seventh-round rookie Jonah Laulu. The Oklahoma product hasn’t quite established a foundation with his limited snap share, with run defense being a problem. This past week, Laulu totaled just a 39.1 grade on run fits. That won’t get it done against this improved Steelers line.
Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are feeling energized after their biggest win of their season so far last Thursday night. When Atlanta signed Cousins, I’m not sure they anticipated a game like he had last week, where he broke the Falcons’ franchise record in single-game passing yardage (509). The question will be if he can reach anywhere near that type of production moving forward.
While it may seem outlandish, the Panthers present another opportunity for Cousins to amass absurd production. Carolina has seemingly run out of gas again after a lackluster performance in Chicago, where the Panthers lost by 26 points. This defense hasn’t fared well in any facet over the first five weeks, holding the league’s second-lowest overall defensive grade (54.7)
If Carolina wants to find stability on offense, it starts with feeding Hubbard a sizable workload. The Panthers back has been on fire the past three weeks, having piled up 315 yards, second only to Derrick Henry over that span. That effort has earned Hubbard the league’s third-highest rushing grade since Week 3, minimum 25 attempts.
That may prove to be a difficult matchup for this Atlanta front-seven, which has shown some cracks fitting the run. The issues can more accurately be isolated to tackling, as the Falcons have tallied the third-most missed tackles (32) on run downs. Edge Lorenzo Carter has been especially poor against the run, having earned just a 34.7 run defense grade — 110th out of 112 qualifying Edge players.
Without question, the Lions have maintained their status as contenders out of the NFC and hold a top spot among the league’s best in the PFF power rankings. Jared Goff is coming off of his best performance in a long time, having tossed a perfect 18-for-18 game with 292 yards through the air and a pair of big-time throws as well as a receiving touchdown. If all things are clicking for this team, it becomes one of the most difficult to take down in the league.
Although the Lions are fresh off a bye, Dallas has momentum coming into this one after taking down Pittsburgh with a last-second touchdown to win on the road in primetime. The Cowboys just barely escaped this exact matchup with a win in 2023 after a potential game-winning two-point conversion was waved off, as officials deemed Taylor Decker did not report as eligible. Dallas will have to prove it can beat Detroit again this time around, and without controversy at that.
With a season-high 22 touches this past week, it’s clear that Dowdle has firmly secured the duties as the Cowboys’ lead back. Now, attention turns to what he will do with the opportunity. In Week 5, Dowdle amassed over 100 yards from scrimmage for the first time this season, coming away with a respectable 67.3 overall grade on the day. Taking a step further forward this week will go a long way to answering this team’s issues in the backfield.
The Lions’ hard-nosed second-year linebacker has had some issues with consistency fitting the run this season. After his 80.5 run defense grade in Week 1, Campbell hasn’t been able to reach near that mark. In Week 4, he generated just a 52.9 run defense grade, having seen an equal number of positive and negative grades.
Although the Bengals haven’t found their way to many wins, staring down a 1-4 record, they are taking games down to the wire on a near-weekly basis, and it’s due solely to this potent offense. Joe Burrow has this unit dialed in, laying claim to the third-highest EPA per play mark in the NFL. Much of the credit goes to Burrow himself, who holds a phenomenal 86.2 PFF passing grade, the second-highest through five weeks.
But, the Giants aren’t going to sit down quietly after their huge win in Week 5, taking down Seattle by two scores on the road. First-year back Tyrone Tracy had himself a solid day, generating a 77.3 rushing grade, the best of his young career. More performances like that, and this Giants team may find the offensive foundation it’s been looking for.
As has been established over the last few weeks, an angry Ja’Marr Chase is a scary weapon. The elite receiver produced a phenomenal 91.3 receiving grade in Week 5, the highest on the week by any player with at least 10 receiving snaps. Chase exploded for nearly 200 yards, amassing an astonishing 4.6 yards per route run.
Luckily for the Giants, their second-year corner Deonte Banks is coming off the best performance of his young career. In Week 5, the Giants CB earned an incredible 87.8 coverage grade, racking up a trio of forced incompletions in the process.
Controversy struck New York after the Jets’ loss to the Vikings this past week, with the news that Robert Saleh had been fired as this team’s head coach. Rumors almost immediately spread around NFL circles as to the reason for the shocking release. Some pointed the finger to Aaron Rodgers, but Jets owner Woody Johnson took responsibility for the questionable dismissal.
Like the Jets — but not to such a drastic extent — the Bills are also looking for answers following a pair of road losses. While disappointing given their hot start to the year, losing two games to a pair of the NFL’s top teams isn’t cause to pull the fire alarm just yet. A road win against a divisional opponent this week could go a long way to turning the tides of October for this team.
It can’t be ignored that Robert Saleh was let go despite him holding up his end of the bargain on the defensive side of the ball. This Jets defense holds a top-five EPA per play allowed mark as well as the NFL’s highest-graded coverage unit. Needless to say, the Jets will be playing inspired football in this one.
That may pose a problem for Allen after seeing his struggles this past week. The Bills’ franchise passer produced his lowest single-game passing grade (37.7) since 2019 after totaling three turnover worthy plays, giving him six over the last two games. If that troubling trend continues, Buffalo will have a difficult time turning it around.
