We prepare to make NFL Week 6 picks as the unpredictable 2024 season rolls on. Rookie quarterbacks have been on a strong run, with Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Caleb Williams (Bears), and Bo Nix (Broncos) all earning victories over the past two weeks.
At the same time, top favorites continue to stumble, with both San Francisco and Seattle losing last week. We’ll include a Week 6 survivor summary at the end of this article, but first, let’s explore some value picks to consider.
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Making accurate predictions is just one part of increasing your chances in a football pool. While point spreads provide a reliable estimate of each team’s win probability, consistently beating Vegas odds is a challenge for most.
The real edge in pick’em pools comes from applying game theory—gaining points where your opponents don’t. This involves predicting not only game outcomes but also anticipating how popular each pick will be among your competitors, allowing you to find NFL Week 6 value picks that others might overlook.
Once you understand each team’s win odds and expected pick popularity, two key strategies can improve your success in football pick’em pools:
The selections below present some of the best opportunities to differentiate your NFL Week 6 picks from your opponents without taking on excessive risk. However, in a season-long pool, picking all five could be too risky, so consider each option carefully based on your specific situation.
To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick’em pool should influence your picks, check out our free articles on winning football pool strategy, or use our Football Pick’em Picks product to get customized recommendations for your pool.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 6:30 pm ET on Tuesday, October 8th, but this information can change between publication and kickoff. Our product updates all data multiple times per day to provide the latest numbers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars return as our top value pick after defeating the Colts as a relatively unpopular favorite last week. Jacksonville’s offense finally came alive, amassing nearly 500 total yards against the Colts’ porous defense, and now they head to England to face the Bears.
The Jaguars are accustomed to the unique travel spot, having played at least one game in London each season since 2013 (excluding the pandemic season in 2020), and this will be QB Trevor Lawrence’s fifth game in London during his career.
Chicago, currently 3-2, has benefited from a high turnover margin and an unsustainable fumble recovery rate. With the Bears being extremely popular in one of the week’s tightest spread games, the Jaguars present a strong value pick.
The public seems to be warming up to rookie quarterbacks, as the value side once again faces a team led by a rookie QB. The Denver Broncos, led by Bo Nix, have won three consecutive games, while the Chargers haven’t won since starting 2-0 and are coming off a bye week. This recent form is likely shaping public perception of the matchup.
Though the Chargers are favored, public opinion is split, creating value on the favored side. The Chargers should be healthier after the bye, giving QB Justin Herbert extra time to rest his ankle. They’re also expected to get back both offensive tackles, including rookie first-rounder Joe Alt, who missed the last game.
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The Titans are coming off a bye week as a one-point underdog at home against the Indianapolis Colts. While it’s still uncertain whether Colts QB Anthony Richardson will return or if Joe Flacco will make his second consecutive start, early indications suggest Richardson might be back.
What we do know is that Indianapolis ranks last in the league in yards allowed per game, while the Titans rank first in that category. Admittedly, Titans QB Will Levis has offset some of that defensive strength with costly turnovers, but facing a struggling Colts defense, this could be a great “get right” opportunity for the rested Titans.
With the game having the tightest odds of the week, you’re also getting a significant popularity discount on the Titans in this spot.
Survivor pools continue to get decimated after Seattle and San Francisco lost last week. By our estimate, only about 1.7 percent of entries that started the year are still alive without a loss, after just five weeks.
If you are still alive, this week comes down to balancing if you want to be on the popular team, which has been treacherous so far, and then how much value to use in thinking about the future weeks.
These eliminations have impacted how you should approach the remainder of the season, and how long you should expect a pool to last.
The Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) are the most popular pick and biggest favorite, in their matchup against the struggling Cleveland Browns. The Eagles are being picked by about 33 percent of entries right now.
The next two most popular are teams going on the road, with the Houston Texans (24 percent popularity) at New England, and Atlanta Falcons (17 percent) at Carolina.
After that, there’s a big drop in popularity. The Green Bay Packers (6 percent) vs. Arizona are next. The Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington and Cincinnati Bengals at the New York Giants are both at about four percent popularity, the only other teams drawing significant interest in survivor pools right now.
Of those picks, Baltimore and Philadelphia have the most value for upcoming weeks, while Atlanta and Green Bay have the least future value based on the upcoming schedule.
In survivor pools that started after Week 1, future value still plays a significant role, especially if you’ll need to make multiple picks in certain weeks later on. This week offers a prime opportunity to position yourself strategically by avoiding popular teams with high future value.
Instead, focus on teams with lower future value but still favorable win odds. By selecting these teams now, you can feel confident in your selections this week while preserving stronger options for upcoming weeks, giving you a long-term advantage.
Here is where the PoolGenius data can give you an edge. With customizable features that allow you to input your pool’s start week, PoolGenius guides you through these key decisions.
Knowing that this week can position you for future success, explore how PoolGenius can help you make smart selections. The tools ensure you make the most strategic decisions by factoring in both current win odds and future value.
Maximizing your edge in football pick’em contests requires not only analyzing win odds and pick popularity but also managing the overall risk in your selections. Some weeks, it makes sense to be strategic with upset picks, while other weeks may call for a more conservative approach.
The decision depends on factors such as potential rewards and your position in the standings. Taking multiple risks may not always be justified if the reward doesn’t outweigh the risk. Strategic balance is key for long-term success.
That’s why we developed the Football Pick’em Picks product. It’s the only tool that provides customized weekly pick recommendations for NFL and college football pick’em pools, using advanced algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Whether you’re in game-winner pools, point spread pools, confidence pools, or pools with season and/or weekly prizes, this product has you covered. Try it out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 6 picks!
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