If you’ve ever watched “Survivor” (on CBS), you know the familiar part of the season when things get … rough. People are crying, people are backstabbing, people are doing terrible things just for the promise of a mediocre hamburger and a flat beer.

When it comes to NFL survivor, we got to that desperation point a little early this season. For the first three weeks, the top survivor pick went and lost their game. Pools were decimated before we even got to see which teams were the real deal. No amount of hamburgers and flat beers could save us.

But then, a glimmer of hope. If you were still alive in your survivor pool after Week 3, Week 4 gave a much-needed breather: The top pick finally won. You did it, San Francisco!

The bad news: Week 5 has a lot of close matchups, an international game and several teams on a bye. In other words, we’re back to chaos and uncertainty.

The good news: Our survivor columnists, Renee Miller and Adam Gretz, are back to talk you through NFL survivor strategies, contingencies and picks for Week 5. May you be the sole survivor.

NFL Week 5 survivor strategy

The team with the highest pick percentage each week is eliminated from our analysis and picks each week. That means the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers are not available. However, we know that not all of you picked them, so we will try to include endorsements (or not) in this section.

Adam: This is the week when things start getting really intense in NFL survivor. Not only are you probably down to a small number of players still standing (depending on how big your league is), and not only have you already used four teams, but there’s another wrinkle added in this week: byes.

There are a handful of pretty good teams still available who are off this week, including the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles (I still think they are pretty good) and the Los Angeles Chargers. That further limits your options. For me, this week is thin on clear picks to begin with because there are not many obvious mismatches available.

San Francisco over the Arizona Cardinals would be a strong pick if you still have them at your disposal, but the 49ers were the top pick a week ago (and my chalk pick) and a big winner. Beyond them, the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are two of the bigger favorites of the week, and the Chicago Bears might be a popular pick since they will be getting the boost that comes with playing the Carolina Panthers.

I’m still a little hesitant to pick against Carolina now that Andy Dalton has given the offense a spark, and I just don’t know how much I trust the Bears yet. Washington Commanders over Cleveland Browns is going to be a popular pick given Washington’s offense and Cleveland’s struggles, but the potential return of Nick Chubb could be a boost. Given the way so many people have been eliminated already, I’m not overly concerned with futures again and am simply taking the biggest favorite that I like the most.

Renee: Week 4 was actually a little kinder for survivors since San Francisco, Houston, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Dallas all managed to win their games. The second-most popular pick, the New York Jets, however, managed to lose in spectacularly bad fashion, eliminating another 20-ish percent of us.

Week 5 is a point in the season where we have a better handle on which offenses are truly reliable and which defenses are definitely not. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future production, it becomes more apparent which unexpected events were fluky and which were our own miscalculations. For instance, the Ravens’ loss to Las Vegas was a pure fluke. The Cardinals win over the LA Rams? It said more about the Rams’ defense than Arizona’s offense.

That logic leads you straight to San Fran this week if you happen to have them available. I agree completely with Adam that this year, futures are not a dominant part of my strategy, so use ’em if you’ve got ’em. Even considering the future, the Seahawks, Chiefs and Cowboys are up next, and I won’t feel nearly as good about the Niners in those matchups as I do vs. Arizona.

It’s a week to avoid as much uncertainty as possible, admittedly a hard thing to do with so many injuries, a game in London, and four teams on bye. Still, a few good options stand out. Let’s get to the picks for Week 5.

Teams used: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, San Francisco

Week 5 chalk picks

The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 5 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread from BetMGM for each of their games as of Oct. 1.

Adam: Green Bay Packers over Los Angeles Rams

Normally I would be a little hesitant to pick against the Rams just because I love Matthew Stafford and think Sean McVay is a really good coach. I just do not know if they can do enough to keep pace with a Packers offense that has Jordan Love back at quarterback. Especially when the Rams are still without their top two wide receivers, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. That really limits Stafford’s ability to make big plays and score a lot of points like he would if everybody was healthy and at his disposal.

I know Love had some issues with turnovers in his return against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, and I know the Packers lost that game, but Love still threw for over 380 yards and four touchdowns. Now he gets to go against a Rams defense that has yet to hold a team to less than 24 points this season, and he already has a game under his belt in his return from that early season injury. I could see him having a big game here and the Rams not being able to match it without Nacua and Kupp in the lineup. I like the Packers this week.

Renee: Seattle Seahawks over New York Giants

Seattle is coming off a tough loss to the Lions that did little to drop them in my mind’s standings. Geno Smith threw 56 times and amassed 395 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception, plus added 38 yards on the ground. He completed passes to 10 different players. Kenneth Walker III returned from an oblique strain to record three rushing touchdowns, and Zach Charbonnet also managed to remain effective, averaging 7.5 yards per catch and catching five passes from Smith. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain one of the top receiving duos in the league. This is an offense that is full of talent and depth, ranking ninth in points scored, that ran into a juggernaut Lions team that is every bit as good as expected on both sides of the ball.

Let’s do a complete 180 now and review the Giants’ 2024 season. The 1-3 Giants are the third-lowest scoring team in the league, losing games by an average of six points. Their defense ranks roughly middle-of-the-pack in various metrics. Malik Nabers is a highlight reel on the field, leading all wide receivers in targets (52) and catches (35), and not far off the leaders with 386 yards and three touchdowns. Still, one man does not make a team and the talent drop-off after Nabers is drastic.

The game will take place in Seattle, where the Seahawks have a slightly better record over the last three seasons. The Smith-led Seahawks have beaten the Jones-led Giants 24-13 and 24-3 in the two games they’ve played over the last two seasons. Jones failed to throw a touchdown in either game, with two interceptions last year. All in all, there is always some possibility that Seattle doesn’t take the game seriously enough and gets sloppy, but there is no legit reason that they don’t crush this one.

Week 5 contrarian picks

Renee: Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis Colts

Let me reiterate: There is no need to do something this crazy. Unless perhaps you’re in a new pool, clean slate and are a little shy about picking big favorites. The logic here is a little less sound than most of my picks because it starts with the premise that it’s very hard for a healthy team with this much talent to continue to play so poorly. It’s hard to go 0-5. Even Carolina figured it out, for Pete’s sake. New England and Miami have won games. Come on, Jacksonville!

That’s mostly my pitch, but for the sticklers among you, I’ll throw in some analysis. There will be very little defense on display here. These two teams are in the Bottom 10 in most pass defense metrics and Indy ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed. As Jacksonville has started to embrace a more complex backfield of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, they should find plenty of success on the ground vs. the Colts.

The teams are pretty even in giveaway/takeaway ratio, with the Jaguars turning the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate (tied with others). Indianapolis turns the ball over fifth-most, but their defense is above average in takeaways. Jacksonville’s defense has the lowest takeaway rate, so these sort of cancel out.

What tips the balance most is the uncertainty around the Anthony Richardson (hip and oblique) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle) injuries. These two comprise 95 percent of the Colts’ offense, so if one or both are absent, it’s a huge hit for Indy, and I don’t see them pulling off a miracle win on the road with Joe Flacco and Trey Sermon.

Adam: Denver Broncos over Las Vegas Raiders

I kind of thought about going with Jacksonville as my contrarian pick just using the mindset of “it’s really hard to play five games in the NFL without winning one of them,” so I feel a lot better about that mindset seeing that Renee kind of took that same approach here. As much as I love Richardson’s upside, I also think him coming back could be more of a negative than a positive for the Colts at this point because he can be so erratic at times. He will make a lot of plays. He will also still make some mistakes.

While Jacksonville might be an aggressively wild pick, my contrarian pick this week might seem equally wild to some people.

Denver.

Like Renee, I also would not fully advise this if you are deep into a league and one of the last few people standing and on the verge of winning some real money, but if you are in a new league or are not particularly fond of any of the other games, I think there is a path here.

As much as Denver’s offense scares me (and should scare everybody), its defense has been really good this season and is entering Week 5 allowing just 13.8 points per game (third-best in the NFL). They are also coming off back-to-back road wins against Tampa Bay (Baker Mayfield) and the New York Jets (Aaron Rodgers), while their two losses are against a pair of teams (Pittsburgh and Seattle) that are a combined 6-2 this season. They have been competitive against some really good competition.

I like their chances to handle Gardner Minshew in Denver, especially if Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby remain sidelined for the Raiders.

(DK Metcalf: Eamon Horwedel / Imagn Images)