It’s time for Week 5 NFL picks in your pick’em leagues. Last week saw several underdog teams come out on top, boosting entries that went against popular picks up the standings. Notable examples included the Colts defeating the Steelers and the Ravens dominating Buffalo as the home favorite, even though most pool participants were backing the Bills.
Week 5 NFL picks present another challenge, as nearly every game this week is projected to be close according to oddsmakers. Identifying the best strategies to outmaneuver your competition will be crucial.
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Making accurate predictions is just one part of increasing your chances in a football pool. While point spreads provide a reliable estimate of each team’s win probability, consistently beating Vegas odds is a challenge for most.
The real edge in pick’em pools comes from applying game theory—gaining points where your opponents don’t. This involves predicting not only game outcomes but also anticipating how popular each pick will be among your competitors, allowing you to find NFL Week 5 value picks that others might overlook.
Once you understand each team’s win odds and expected pick popularity, two key strategies can improve your success in football pick’em pools:
The selections below present some of the best opportunities to differentiate your NFL Week 5 picks from your opponents without taking on excessive risk. However, in a season-long pool, picking all five could be too risky, so consider each option carefully based on your specific situation.
To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick’em pool should influence your picks, check out our free articles on winning football pool strategy, or use our Football Pick’em Picks product to get customized recommendations for your pool.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 6:30 pm ET on Tuesday, October 1st, but this information can change between publication and kickoff. Our product updates all data multiple times per day to provide the latest numbers.
From a value pick one week to a value opponent the next, the Colts were an unpopular home pick against the Steelers last week, and we highlighted them as the top value option. This week, however, the scenario shifts as they face the 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s slow start has made many hesitant to pick them, despite being the favorite. With the pool evenly divided, this is an opportunity to grab a favorite that may be underappreciated.
Uncertainty around Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s status after injuries to his hip and abdomen, and RB Jonathan Taylor’s condition contribute to making the Jaguars the most unpopular favorite this week.
The Houston Texans are at home against the Buffalo Bills, and most pool participants are siding with Buffalo. However, Houston may get a boost on offense if RB Joe Mixon or WR Tank Dell can return.
Oddsmakers predict a tight game, and there’s minimal difference in the teams’ chances of winning. With nearly two-thirds of the public favoring the Bills, taking the less popular Texans provides a solid value play in this toss-up matchup.
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The Cincinnati Bengals are a 2.5-point home underdog to Baltimore, but they come at a significant popularity discount, with only 22% of the public backing Cincinnati to win.
In Week 5, there are several upset options to consider, as 11 of the 14 games feature a team favored by 3.5 points or fewer, creating tight win odds across the board.
Of the unpopular underdogs, Cincinnati currently offers the best combination of win odds and low popularity, making them a key leverage pick in weekly contests.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were a popular pick last week, but they offer good value this week against “America’s Team,” the Dallas Cowboys. Pittsburgh has moved to a 2.5-point favorite, with Dallas missing two key defensive starters, Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence.
With just over 50 percent of the public backing the Steelers, they represent a solid value pick, especially compared to other teams favored by 2.5 points, which are at 78% and 79% popularity, respectively. Pittsburgh provides a nice payoff as the favorite, allowing you to get contrarian value elsewhere with your upset picks.
The NY Jets suffered a tough upset loss last week, falling 10-9 to Denver. Meanwhile, Minnesota moved to 4-0 with a win over Green Bay, making them one of the last remaining undefeated teams.
These two will now meet in London for Sunday morning’s game. The public is heavily favoring the Vikings, and while Minnesota is rightly favored, there’s potential for regression. Minnesota ranks 26th in yards allowed but 4th in points allowed—a gap largely driven by an unsustainable turnover differential, which often regresses.
With so many backing the Vikings in this neutral-field game, taking the Jets as a value upset play offers solid value.
Maximizing your edge in football pick’em contests requires not only analyzing win odds and pick popularity but also managing the overall risk in your selections. Some weeks, it makes sense to be strategic with upset picks, while other weeks may call for a more conservative approach.
The decision depends on factors such as potential rewards and your position in the standings. Taking multiple risks may not always be justified if the reward doesn’t outweigh the risk. Strategic balance is key for long-term success.
That’s why we developed the Football Pick’em Picks product. It’s the only tool that provides customized weekly pick recommendations for NFL and college football pick’em pools, using advanced algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Whether you’re in game-winner pools, point spread pools, confidence pools, or pools with season and/or weekly prizes, this product has you covered. Try it out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 5 picks!
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