The Minnesota Vikings have won five games in a row, and amazingly, their best player, Justin Jefferson, hasn’t scored in any of those games. His scoreless streak is actually six games, and he’s only cracked 100 yards three times this season as he constantly faces double-teams and bracketed coverage from defenses.
This Sunday, Jefferson welcomes old friend Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota. The Vikings wisely chose to let Cousins walk in the offseason and threw more money at Jefferson, $140 million to be exact. Even though he has been a little quiet, Jefferson just went over the 1,000-yard mark for his fifth straight season, making him only the fourth receiver to do that in his first five seasons. (Randy Moss, A.J. Green and Mike Evans are the others.)
Cousins, meanwhile, appears washed but the Atlanta Falcons have to keep starting him because they are somehow in first place. That shouldn’t be the case next week after Jefferson figures to break through against a Falcons defense that allows the second-most touchdown receptions to receivers (1.25 per game) and has the third-worst pressure rate (17.6 percent).
Of course, Cousins ruined our brilliant Falcons pick last week by throwing four interceptions to the Los Angeles Chargers, so it would be par for the course that he bites us and covers the point spread here. We only made two bad picks last week (New York Giants and New York Jets) and were very close to a big breakthrough, but we settled for just a winning mark after five collapses.
Last week’s record: 9-7 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets.
Season record: 82-111-2 against the spread, 24-39-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
GO DEEPER
NFL best bets Week 14: Packers, Chiefs, Dolphins to cover and a couple over-unders
The Lions took the first nap of all of us on Thanksgiving after looking like they were going to rout the Bears early. They do have a lot of injuries on defense, and people are starting to buy into the Packers. But there are three problems with jumping on that bandwagon in this matchup: 1) the Lions are very good against the run, so Josh Jacobs can’t carry the Packers offense here; 2) Jordan Love has been erratic, and his EPA per dropback is much worse against winning teams (-0.08 in 4 games, 27th in the league) than it is against losing teams (0.29 in six games, third in the league); and 3) the Packers struggle to contain tight ends and Sam LaPorta’s shoulder seemed a lot better last week when he caught two touchdown passes.
The pick: Lions
GO DEEPER
The NFL’s best athlete was made in Samoa, but he’s a perfect fit in the Motor City
The Jets got off to a good start last week, but teams with bad quarterbacks and defenses that miss tackles find ways to lose. On passes of over 10 air yards, Aaron Rodgers completed just 2 of 14 for 35 yards. His 38.9 percent completion percentage on such passes this season is the fifth lowest in the NFL and his lowest number since 2016.
Jets running back Breece Hall is tied for a league-high six fumbles, and the Dolphins have been very good against the run the last two months anyway. (The Dolphins defense leads the league with only 24 explosive plays — 20-plus yards — allowed, a year after giving up 55 such plays through 13 weeks.) This spread seemed a point or two too high to me, but how else are people going to consider taking the Jets? The Dolphins finally get warm again after freezing last week in Green Bay.
The pick: Dolphins
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I no longer hate the Michael Penix Jr. draft pick. I guess it was an expensive hedge that old man Cousins would never be the same after tearing his Achilles. Cousins has posted three straight games with a negative EPA, and his -24.6 EPA over that span ranks third lowest in the league. And you figure that his old team knows him well, plus it also happens to have one of the better defenses and should be able to take away Bijan Robinson.
Sam Darnold, meanwhile, had a major breakthrough last week. He was 0-23 as a starter when he trailed by 13-plus points in a game … make that 1-23. Now he gets to face a Falcons defense that pairs a friendly pass rush with a struggling secondary that made Ladd McConkey look like Antonio Brown last week.
The pick: Vikings
GO DEEPER
Sam Darnold responds (again), Bucky Irving steps up, more Week 13 thoughts: Quick Outs
First off, I owe Tommy DeVito an apology. I thought Drew Lock would be an upgrade last week, but I forgot that Lock treats the football like a baby does a rattler — he could care less where it winds up. The Giants also have a terrible run defense AND just lost their best player in Dexter Lawrence II, so the Saints won’t be reeling from Taysom Hill’s injury too much.
Alvin Kamara should have one of those ridiculous fantasy football games he delivers a couple of times a year. Now … does that mean we want to lay 4.5 points with a bad team on the road? Hmmm. The Giants still have a decent pass rush and Derek Carr still loves to throw the ball away. (Carr is 10-20 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5-plus points, and 7-15 ATS as a road favorite.) We’ll know early on if the Giants have quit on the season, but in case they haven’t, we’ll fade Carr and take the points.
The pick: Giants
The Panthers have covered four straight games and Bryce Young has bounced back from being benched by making some tough throws and having a lot of fun playing. He has the whole team playing loose, and his offensive line is giving him more time to process things.
The Eagles defense is playing at a very high level and should be able to handle a dangerous two-headed rushing attack of Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks, now that Brooks is healthy. Hubbard leads the NFL in shortest time spent behind the line of scrimmage, averaging 2.60 seconds before crossing the threshold.
On the other side, Saquon Barkley should have no trouble padding his MVP candidacy stats against a bad run defense. The Eagles can pick the score, but we’re hoping their focus is lacking after a big win over the Ravens with a game against the Steelers on deck. Plus, we enjoyed rolling with Young too much last week to stop now.
The pick: Panthers
The Jameis Winston experience is dizzying, and his two pick sixes on Monday night wiped out the 497 yards that he threw for. He did beat the Steelers just two weeks ago, and receiver Jerry Jeudy is playing at a very high level right now. He ranks eighth in EPA per reception (1.5) and 10th in EPA per target (0.67) since Week 9.
But the Steelers are a better team and should be able to establish the run against the Browns this time around. That would make things look even easier for Russell Wilson, who last week completed 8 of 9 passes over 10 air yards for 205 yards and two TDs. He was +34.8 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), his third-highest mark in a game over the last seven seasons.
Wilson leads all qualified quarterbacks in CPOE on attempts over 10 air yards this season (+15.7 percent). And it seems like T.J. Watt is due for a breakout game. He ranks 103rd in pressure percentage at 9.1 percent but ranks tied for seventh with 9 1/2 sacks.
The pick: Steelers
This is a must-win game for the Raiders. What?! They’re 2-10. But they’re probably going to need at least a couple of wins down the stretch to save Antonio Pierce’s job. That should be enough reason to avoid a letdown after last week’s emotional, last-play loss to the Chiefs on Black Friday.
They got some pressure on Patrick Mahomes last week, but the Chiefs tackles are abysmal while the Buccaneers offensive line has been bolstered by the return of Tristan Wirfs. (His 1.7 percent pressure rate is the fourth best among all offensive linemen.) That’s bad news for a patchwork secondary that will have no answer for Mike Evans.
Can the Raiders score enough points to keep it close? Can Aidan O’Connell build off a great second half against the Chiefs? Will Brock Bowers put on the red cape again? Forget rookies, Bowers’ 84 catches are the third most of any tight end in the past 25 years through 13 weeks (Zach Ertz had 93 in 2018, and Jason Witten had 88 in 2012). Yup, this feels like a backdoor cover for the Raiders.
The pick: Raiders
GO DEEPER
Tom Brady on late-hit against Azeez Al-Shaair: ‘I have mixed emotions’
Trevor Lawrence is out for the season with a concussion, so it’s Mac Jones against Will Levis. Tickets are free to this game. Or at least they should be.
The Titans had a decent defense many injuries ago, but that is no longer the case. Jones should be able to find Brian Thomas Jr., who ranks fourth in EPA per reception with a 1.4 rate and holds the fastest maximum speed in play of all wide receivers this season at 22.15 mph. The Jaguars defense should be able to get some pressure on Levis, which is as good a reason as I can think of to take the points.
The pick: Jaguars
The Cardinals covered for us last week against the Vikings despite only scoring one touchdown, and their defense has definitely gotten better as the year has gone on. They held Kenneth Walker III and DK Metcalf in check in a 16-6 loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago.
Kyler Murray was pretty bad in that game, missing two easy throws for touchdowns in what has been a roller-coaster season for him. He just needs to throw even more to tight end Trey McBride, who had 12 catches for 133 yards in the first matchup. Seattle’s Geno Smith, meanwhile, ranks 25th in EPA per dropback (-0.02) and 28th in total EPA (-5.6) in the past three weeks. The home team wins and covers this matchup again.
The pick: Cardinals
GO DEEPER
NFL Power Rankings Week 14: Bills, Eagles peaking, plus worst-case scenarios
This should be a flat spot for the Bills, coming off the snowy Josh Allen showcase on national television with a Super Bowl preview against the Lions coming up next week. But that won’t matter if the Bills can establish the run (the Rams have allowed the sixth-most yards in the league) and if their cornerbacks can stick with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
The Rams also should be able to run the ball as they try to keep Allen off the field. And while the Bills have been ridiculously efficient in the red zone — 87.5 percent TD rate the last two games — the Rams offense has also been very good, ranking fifth in the league at a 72.7 percent TD rate the last three weeks.
Again, the Bills are much better, but maybe they let their foot off the gas a little. They lead the NFL with a plus-91 point margin in the second halves of games. That’s the second-best margin (to the 2022 Cowboys) through 13 weeks in the past 10 seasons. So … less of that, please.
The pick: Rams
It’s a lost season for the 49ers … but that doesn’t mean they can’t still beat the Bears at home. Even though they are down to their No. 4 running back in Isaac Guerendo, the Bears don’t have a good run defense.
The injuries on the 49ers offensive line mean that tight end George Kittle has to block more than run routes. The team is banged up on defense, which bodes well for Caleb Williams. The rookie QB has dropped back to pass a league-high 140 times in the last three weeks and produced a 0.14 EPA per dropback (seventh in the span), 24.4 total QB EPA (sixth) and a 99.2 passer rating (11th).
Brock Purdy, on the other hand, has been struggling with a bad shoulder, disappearing offensive stars and snow the last three weeks — he ranks 29th in EPA per dropback (-0.05) and passer rating (81.2). We still think this is a prideful bunch and are ignoring the new coach bump as Kyle Shanahan wins that matchup fairly easily.
The pick: 49ers
GO DEEPER
NFL Week 14 playoff scenarios: How 3 more teams can clinch playoff spots
The Chiefs can’t beat anybody by more than a touchdown, but the Chargers would have a tough time hanging around if Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) can’t play. But he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, which bodes well.
It also looks like the Chargers will get linebacker Denzel Perryman back from a groin injury, which is big for their run defense. That will help Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa get after Mahomes by attacking the Chiefs’ bad offensive tackles — Jawaan Taylor has allowed seven sacks, while Wanya Morris ranks second in QB hits allowed (11) and has also given up five sacks.
The Chargers pass rushers will have to get home, as the Chiefs offense ranks second in third down conversion rate (51.3 percent) and fifth in EPA per play rate on third down (0.34) the past three weeks. During the same span, the Chargers offense ranks 29th in both categories (30.6 percent, -0.39 EPA). The Chiefs clinched a playoff spot last week and don’t cover the spread for the seventh game in a row.
The pick: Chargers
The Cowboys have some life since Micah Parsons came back, while the Bengals keep finding ways to lose despite Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase having historical seasons. Cincinnati’s pass defense is atrocious, and Dallas just got Brandin Cooks back to take some of the pressure off CeeDee Lamb. And you probably don’t remember this, but backup quarterback Cooper Rush already beat the Bengals — in 2022. And he is getting more comfortable every week since coming in for the injured Dak Prescott. His average time to throw of 2.46 seconds is the fastest in the league — and a big reason he is the least pressured QB the past two weeks with a 15.5 percent pressure rate.
The pick: Cowboys
Best bets: We’re going with the Dolphins, Vikings and Steelers to take care of business at home against the Jets, Falcons and the Browns, respectively. Then, we are taking some lovable, cuddly underdogs in the Panthers and Rams (covering against the Eagles and Bills).
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Cooper Rush quickly puts some money in your pocket, as the Cowboys are plus-5.5 points and plus-200 on the money line at home against the Bengals.
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo of Justin Jefferson: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
