We went 4-1 straight up on our top five picks, but 1-4 against the spread. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Cincinnati Bengals by a single point, the San Francisco 49ers struggled with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons embarrassed themselves against the New Orleans Saints and we got caught by the hook in the Detroit Lions‘ victory over the Houston Texans. At least the Los Angeles Chargers came through for us against the Tennessee Titans.
This week in the NFL, Russell Wilson tests his perfect 3-0 record vs. the rival Ravens, Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans to play his former team and Patrick Mahomes battles Josh Allen in arguably the best AFC rivalry right now. If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money, too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Top-five picks ATS record: 23-26-1
Overall ATS record: 67-82-3
Straight up record: 95-57
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, which wasn’t a massive surprise considering Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league so far. They haven’t scored a touchdown since Oct. 27!
The Bears have now lost three straight games, while the Packers are fresh off their bye. Green Bay has actually won its last 10 vs. Chicago, winning by an average of 12.7 points per game. The Packers are a borderline contender in my opinion, and this is a great opportunity to create some momentum with a road victory. The Bears haven’t scored a touchdown on 23 straight offensive drives, so I’ll lay the 5.5 points with Jordan Love and Co.
The pick: Packers -5.5
Projected score: Packers 24-17
Will Jordan Love throw two touchdowns on Sunday? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Some NFL bettors automatically avoid massive lines, but I’m almost drawn to them. Sometimes I’ll make the big underdog a best bet, while other times I’ll hammer the favorite. I think this is a situation where we hammer the favorite.
This is the biggest number we’ve seen in the NFL this year, but for good reason. Mac Jones is again starting in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence, and he’s 0-9 SU and ATS in his past nine starts as a road underdog. Yes, taking a team -14 is scary, but the Lions own the best point differential in the NFL this year (+113). Plus, did you know double-digit favorites are 4-0 ATS this season? And I made three of those double-digit favorites best bets! That includes taking the Lions to cover 11.5 vs. the Titans earlier this year. Detroit won that game by 38.
The pick: Lions -14
Projected score: Lions 35-14
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Jameis Winston revenge game! You know the former Saint will be motivated to beat his former team in New Orleans, and he even had the bye week to prepare. The Saints actually opened as favorites in this matchup, but the number has moved towards the Browns.
Darren Rizzi had a great first win against the Falcons, but he needed Younghoe Koo to miss what felt like 100 field goals to win that game by a measly three points. If the Browns can contain the suddenly-explosive Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Winston can take care of the ball, Cleveland should win this game. Watch for Myles Garrett to be a difference-maker.
The pick: Browns -1
Projected score: Browns 23-21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I was blown away by the Dolphins defense on Monday night. They held Matthew Stafford’s offense out of the end zone entirely, and forced two turnovers in a 23-15 win. The Los Angeles Rams went 0 for 3 in the red zone, and didn’t even convert a third down until the second half. Again, we are talking about Sean McVay’s offense, which features Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams!
Up next for Miami is Vegas, who rank fourth-worst in the NFL in total offense with 280.7 yards per game. The Raiders haven’t won a game since September! I do think Miami’s upset win over Los Angeles could serve as a turning point — especially if Anthony Weaver’s defense continues to play like this.
The pick: Dolphins -7.5
Projected score: Dolphins 22-13
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)
The Texans have struggled over the past few weeks, and the absence of Nico Collins is a reason why. However, the star wideout is expected back this week after missing the past five games due to a hamstring injury. Houston is 4-1 with Collins in the lineup, and 2-3 without him.
The 7.5-point spread isn’t insignificant, but the Cowboys are 0-4 SU and ATS at home. They were just blown out by 28 points in their first game without Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush completed 13 of 23 passes for a whopping 45 yards in his first start this season!
The Texans on the other hand need to get something going. They lost by eight points to the New York Jets on Halloween, then blew a 23-7 lead to the Lions in prime time last week. This is a great opportunity for C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.
The pick: Texans -7.5
Projected score: Texans 26-13
