Like a Saquon Barkley spin move juxtaposed into a reverse hurdle or a DeVonta Smith toe-drag touchdown, the 2024 NFL season has been a sight to behold. The Sporting News’ best bets have been even more beautiful, with a sparkling record of hits over the first nine weeks.
Coming off a loaded Week 10 slate, this column went 7-3 with moneyline, spread and over/under picks last week but 0-3 on player prop bets. We came 0.5 Garrett Wilson receptions and 11.5 Sam Darnold passing yards from a 9-5 week but settled for 7-6.
MORE NFL: Week 11 odds, lines, totals | Power rankings | Playoff picture
As the undefeated Chiefs might say after one of their close-shave victories, “a win is a win.” And this column has stacked up a ton of wins on the year. Our weekly best bets now stand at 63-48-1, that’s a winning percentage of .568, for anyone who likes statistics.
Here’s the top moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers on BetMGM and Caesars for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and thanks now and forever to all the veterans who have selflessly served our nation to protect our freedoms.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/unders | Player props
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
The Dolphins have been battling against some pretty good teams since Tua Tagovailoa returned, but they don’t have much to show for it. They lost a one-point heartbreaker to Arizona 28-27, then fell by just three a week later in Buffalo (30-27).
Add a back-and-forth battle with the now-healthy Rams on Monday, and you’ve got a Miami team that’s healthy and coming off three straight games against upper-echelon teams. Teams that — let’s face it — have been on a different stratosphere than the Raiders.
Vegas has reached turbulent conditions. The Antonio Pierce head-coaching experiment has failed miserably, and so has every QB who has started for the Raiders. Mark Davis’s squad has dropped five straight, and its seven losses have been by an average margin of 12.9 points.
Cincinnati, which is built similarly to Miami, destroyed Vegas 42-23 in Week 9. The Bengals racked up 243 passing yards and 130 rushing yards in the onslaught, and Joe Burrow put five TDs on the board. The ‘fins should swim away unscathed on Sunday.
SCORE PREDICTION: Dolphins 31, Raiders 23
Other Week 11 spreads worth a look: Packers -6.5 at Bears (-110 on Caesars); Cowboys +7.5 vs. Texans (-110)
Plus odds on a 9-0 team? Patrick Mahomes as an underdog against Josh Allen? The Chiefs‘ defense against a Bills squad that might have just lost Dalton Kincaid to injury? Yeah, sign us up for all that and a bag of potato chips (the kind with the ridges).
Kansas City just keeps finding ways to win. The common denominator, other than reigning back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and super-stud tight end Travis Kelce, is Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. It’s the most underrated unit in the NFL, although Andy Reid’s team is undefeated over halfway through the season.
Getting DeAndre Hopkins midseason didn’t hurt, either. Nor will getting Isiah Pacheco back (maybe this could be the week!). The Chiefs have more weapons, a better coaching staff, and the best quarterback in the league.
There’s a reason why Mahomes has gone 3-0 against Allen in the playoffs throughout their careers. Allen plays MVP football against non-contenders and often chokes against elite opposition. He also has four interceptions over Buffalo’s past three games. Bet against the undefeated squad and reigning back-to-back champs at your own peril.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Bills 20
Other Week 11 moneylines to consider: Browns (+110) at Saints (Caesars and BetMGM); Broncos (-125) vs. Falcons (Caesars and BetMGM); Bengals (+110) at Chargers
This one opened up with a 44-point over/under, with Kirk Cousins’ Falcons getting 1.5 points. Against Defensive Player of the Year dark horse Patrick Surtain and this Denver defense at home, though, that seems like a generous projection.
The Broncos just held the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs to 16 points in Week 10. They’ve held six different opponents under 18 on the campaign, and allow an average of 17 PPG at Mile High.
Then there’s the issue of Atlanta’s red-zone inefficiency. The Falcons scored a TD on just one-third of their RZ trips against the Saints last weekend, and their road RZ touchdown percentage is the eighth-worst in the NFL. Expect the Dirty Birds to get held to UNDER 22 for the sixth time this season.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Falcons 20
Other strong Week 11 over/under bets: Browns at Saints: UNDER 43.5 (-110); Commanders at Eagles: UNDER 49.5 (-110)
