• A high-flying Thursday night matchup: Baltimore and Cincinnati both possess potent offenses coming off 40-plus point performances last week, but the Ravens may stand in a tier of their own, leading the NFL in EPA per play, successful play percentage (42.4%), and touchdown percentage (35.4%) behind the NFL’s highest-graded QB-RB tandem.
• An Eagles-Cowboys battle we’re not used to: The Cowboys’ troubles went from bad to worse with the news early in the week that their franchise signal-caller, Dak Prescott, suffered a serious hamstring in the team’s Week 9 loss to Atlanta that may require season-ending surgery.
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Estimated reading time: 23 minutes
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CIN@BAL | NYG@CAR | NE@CHI | BUF@IND | MIN@JAX | DEN@KC | ATL@NO | SF@TB | PIT@WAS | TEN@LAC | NYJ@ARI | PHI@DAL | DET@HOU | MIA@LAR
Thursday night kicks off with an AFC North divisional rematch of what was an instant classic the last time these two teams met in Week 5. The Ravens secured a nail-biting three-point overtime victory in Cincinnati in that game, as Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow dueled it out. Now, the series shifts to Baltimore.
Jackson and Burrow have been dealing all season long, with the pair ranking No. 1 and 2, respectively, in PFF passing grade this season — separated by just 0.1 points on the grading scale.
Baltimore and Cincinnati both possess potent offenses coming off 40-plus point performances last week, but the Ravens may stand in a tier of their own. Baltimore leads the NFL in EPA per play, successful play percentage (42.4%) and touchdown percentage (35.4%) behind the NFL’s highest-graded QB-RB tandem in Jackson and Derrick Henry.
The Bengals ‘outspoken receiver gave the media an interesting quote when asked about prep on a short week, but can you blame him after his performance the last time these teams met? Back in Week 5, Chase tore up the Ravens’ secondary to the tune of 10 grabs for 193 yards and a pair of scores on his way to a phenomenal 91.3 PFF receiving grade for the game.
The task of stopping a repeat performance from Chase will fall, in part, on Marlon Humphrey. The veteran corner struggled a bit the last time these teams matched up, earning his lowest coverage grade (50.5) of the season. Still, he remains one of the best in the game, currently holding the third-highest season coverage grade at the cornerback position (83.2).
Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany plays host to this NFL international matchup between a pair of struggling NFC franchises in the Panthers and Giants.
Carolina tallied its second win of this season this past week the Panthers they took down the Saints in improbable fashion at home, 23-22, with Bryce Young under center. The young passer earned a 75.2 PFF passing grade last week, his highest in any start of 2024, and will again be tabbed to start.
The Giants find themselves amid a four-game slide, with their last win coming back in Week 5. During this losing streak, New York ranks 26th in offensive EPA per play with just five offensive touchdowns scored, tied for the fewest in the NFL over that span.
Carolina’s pass protection has been its strong suit this season, but with the loss of LT Ikem Ekwonu to an ankle injury — which may sideline him again this week — this team has needed to shuffle the offensive line. That sent Brady Christensen — who was starting at center for the injured Austin Corbett — to left tackle, and elevated Cade Mays to start at center. In his lone start last week, the third-year center earned a quality 84.4 PFF pass-blocking grade.
Mays will need to tap into that performance if he hopes to slow down the Giants’ All-Pro interior pass-rusher. Lawrence holds a position-leading 10 sacks this season behind a 13.4% pressure rate, on his way to earning a 82.8 PFF pass-rush grade.
After a long week of criticism heaped onto Matt Eberflus and this coaching staff, Week 9 did not net the positive outing the Windy City had hoped for. The Bears fell to the Cardinals by three scores in a game in which they scored no touchdowns and averaged just 3.4 yards per play. Among the oddities of that game included a sequence where D.J. Moore walked off the field on a live play due to injury as Caleb Williams scrambled to his side looking for an outlet.
On the other sideline, New England suffered a crushing overtime defeat after an incredible game-tying drive from first-year quarterback Drake Maye. However, his overall performance in the game left a lot to be desired, having tossed four turnover-worthy plays — including an interception in overtime that ended the game.
When the Pats made the switch to Maye, they did it with the understanding there were going to be some growing pains with a young quarterback. However, the issues with ball security are becoming more prevalent, with the rookie having recorded nine turnover-worthy plays in his four starts.
Chicago’s secondary has been in the spotlight in recent weeks, and the unit’s struggles have yet to subside despite some shuffling in the lineup. This coverage unit has seen its team coverage grade fall from an 86.0 — the highest in the NFL through Week 6 — to just a 45.3 over the last three games.
The 7-2 Bills come into the final eight games of the 2024 campaign on a four-game winning streak after securing a close divisional victory this past week. This Bills offense has been clicking in recent weeks, as the unit ranks second in EPA per play since Week 6. Josh Allen has tossed nine big-time throws over that span, the third-most in the NFL.
Even after a change at quarterback, the Colts still have issues to sort out offensively. Joe Flacco struggled at the helm in his first legitimate start as QB1, generating a 51.7 PFF passing grade behind three turnover-worthy plays. This week, he looks to correct those mistakes against a Bills coverage unit that has allowed the fifth-highest open target percentage (64.8%) over the last four games.
Shakir doesn’t receive the credit he deserves for being a consistent presence in this receiving crop. The third-year receiver has generated a 70.0-plus receiving grade in five of his eight games played. Shakir provides his quarterback with a controlled target underneath to take advantage of two-high defenses, holding the lowest average depth of target (2.9) among qualifying receivers, yet amassing over 11 yards per reception.
Tasked with covering Shakir in the slot will be the veteran Kenny Moore II, who is in the midst of another quality year. The Colts corner holds a top-10 coverage grade when lined up in the slot (72.6), having allowed just 0.85 yards per coverage snap.
Jacksonville’s struggles continued in Week 9, suffering a second-straight tough loss amid a painful stretch in a difficult schedule. After a slow start this past week that netted zero points in the first half, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags stormed back to cut the Eagles’ lead to just five points before the young passer tossed his fourth quarter red-zone interception that ultimately decided the outcome.
On the other hand, Minnesota got back on the right track in Week 9 after suffering a pair of its own tough losses in the weeks prior. The Vikings started their Week 9 game in a similar manner to Jacksonville, totaling zero points in the first half. But where they differed is that the Vikings were able to play solid defense in order to bring home the win.
A few weeks ago, Cam Robinson was the starting left tackle for the Jaguars; now, he finds himself playing against his former team in the same season. Minnesota acquired Robinson to take over for Christian Darrisaw (knee), who is slated to miss the rest of the year. In his first outing with his new team, the veteran tackle surrendered four pressures on 40 pass sets, earning a 64.4 PFF pass blocking grade.
With Hines-Allen being on a tear in recent weeks, it will be interesting to see how significant familiarity will be in this matchup. The talented pass-rusher has produced a fantastic 89.9 PFF pass-rush grade this season, powered by six sacks — three of which have come in the last two games.
The Chiefs’ march through the 2024 regular season continued last week, where they notched their eighth straight win of the campaign, taking down Tampa Bay on Monday night. A late Bucs score may have sent this one to overtime, but the opposing comeback was stifled as soon as the coin toss landed in the Chiefs’ favor. In that outing, Patrick Mahomes earned his highest pass grade (87.4) of the season, his second 80.0-plus graded outing in the past two games.
Denver’s Week 9 didn’t go anywhere near positively, with this team falling apart against Baltimore and suffering a 30-plus-point defeat. Lamar Jackson and company managed to score 41 points against the league’s best defense by EPA per play allowed. That leaves a multitude of questions for Denver heading into this bitter rivalry matchup, as Mahomes is finally catching his stride after a slower first half in 2024.
Hopkins’ first full workload since landing with Kansas City ended about as well as anyone in the organization could have hoped when making the trade. In Week 9, the veteran receiver earned his highest receiving grade (81.8) of the season, powered by eight receptions, a pair of touchdowns and a trio of 15-plus yard receptions.
While that’s undoubtedly an impressive day for any receiver, it may be a far more difficult task to shake loose of the sticky coverage of Surtain on the outside. The Broncos corner’s 74.9 PFF coverage grade ranks in the top-15 at the position. His reputation has preceded him in recent weeks, with the Ravens opting not to target him once in Week 9.
After dropping their seventh straight game in a row, the Saints have decided to part ways with head coach Dennis Allen, with special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi set to act as interim HC. Week 9’s historic blunder largely settled the decision on Allen. Per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, the Saints are the first team to lose in 20 years after outgaining their opponent by 150-plus yards, running for 150 or more yards and winning the turnover battle.
The Falcons are heading in the opposite direction as they march into this divisional matchup carrying a 4-0 record against the NFC South this season. While Atlanta has looked like a revamped team in recent weeks, it bears reminding that this same Saints team drove Atlanta to the brink in Week 4 but ultimately fell short.
The past two outings have been very productive for Mooney, with the Falcons receiver contributing a combined 80.6 PFF receiving grade over the two contests. Over that span, Mooney has generated 3.05 yards per route run and 19.3 yards per reception to go with a pair of touchdown catches, giving him five on the year — a new career-high.
With the trading away of Marshon Lattimore at the deadline, this Saints defense will be down its best coverage defender and looking for contributors to step up into the role he vacated. Expectations are that third-year corner Alontae Taylor may play more on the outside after primarily manning the slot. That may prove troubling, as Taylor hasn’t produced glowing coverage metrics in his time in the NFL. This season, the Saints corner possesses just a 41.4 PFF coverage grade — 111th out of 112 qualifying corners.
After missing the first eight games of the 2024 campaign due to concerns over a calf/Achilles injury, Christian McCaffrey has returned to practice in limited fashion to start the week, with the potential for him to be able to make his season debut. With some tough matchups to come in the latter half of the 49ers’ schedule, getting back your best player is always good news.
Unfortunately, the Bucs still find themselves navigating uncertain waters regarding injury. However, despite being down their two best receivers, Baker Mayfield and this Bucs offense managed to take the Chiefs to overtime — just to never possess the ball, losing 30-24 in Kansas City. That marks this team’s third-straight loss, dropping below .500.
Getting the talented second-year DI Calijah Kancey back from injury in Week 6 was supposed to help fix this struggling run defense for the Bucs, but it hasn’t netted the results many would have expected. Kancey currently holds just a 28.9 run defense grade this season — ranking 128th out of 129 qualified interior defenders. While he may have recorded two tackles for loss or no gain since his return, he also has surrendered a negatively-graded snap over 33% of his run fits.
Paving the way for McCaffrey’s possible return will be rookie RG Puni. While the young blocker has performed well overall this season — earning a top-15 run-blocking grade at the position — some issues with consistency have sprouted. Over his last two outings, Puni has earned just a 58.0 PFF run blocking grade, due in part to being defeated on 12.2% of his run blocks.
The NFC East-leading Commanders shocked everyone this past week at the trade deadline, securing veteran corner Marshon Lattimore to shore up their issues in the secondary. While Lattimore is a bit removed from his lockdown days, his respectable 71.6 coverage grade this season places him in the top-24 at the position. He’s a welcome addition to a team that ranks 25 this season in team coverage grade (56.0).
The AFC North-leading Steelers were also busy at the deadline, making a pair of trades that landed this team WR Mike Williams and Ege Preston Smith to help supplement both sides of the ball. While neither of the deals move the needle significantly, they each address a need this team has faced in the first half of the year: pass-rush depth and options in the receiving game.
Even with the addition of Mike Williams, Pickens stands as the top dog on this Steelers passing offense. Since Russell Wilson took over quarterback duties in Week 7, Pickens holds a position-leading 89.9 PFF receiving grade over that span, racking up just under 200 yards receiving.
The struggles in coverage stemming from St-Juste are ultimately what led this team to bring in a player like Lattimore. The 27-year-old CB has generated just a 49.7 coverage grade — ranked 105th out of 112 qualifying CBs. St-Juste has surrendered 8.0 yards per coverage target and 13 receptions of 15-or-more yards.
All-around team showings have been the hallmark of the Chargers last couple of performances, and it couldn’t come at a better time: Los Angeles heads into the back-half of the year with a 3-1 record over its last four games. The defense has been particularly commendable and currently hold the league’s best mark in EPA per play allowed, as well as a top-five mark in overall defensive grade (76.0).
The Titans haven’t been nearly as fortunate finding wins on their schedule. However, they were able to secure their second victory on the year this past week despite nearly allowing a rookie quarterback to notch his first ever comeback victory. Similarly, what success Tennessee has managed stems from its solid defense, which ranks in the top-seven in EPA per play allowed. That trend will prove vital to this team’s success moving forward.
Without highly touted weapons or consistent protection, Justin Herbert is still dealing and finally hitting his stride on the 2024 season. The Chargers’ franchise signal-caller has contributed 910 passing yards since Week 7 behind an incredible 10 big-time throws, on his way to a 92.8 PFF passing grade — all of which are top marks in the NFL.
An injury to Quandre Diggs prompted Tennessee to acquire Mike Edwards after his release from Buffalo. While it remains to be seen if Edwards will play in this one, the Titans could use some more playmakers in the secondary. Although he’s experienced a small sample in 2024 with seven total snaps, his 2023 run in Kansas City leaves some questions, as he earned just a 58.6 grade in coverage.
After starting the season with a 1-3 record in September, this Cardinals team has gone on to facilitate a fantastic stretch of games, coming away with a 4-1 record in the five games to follow. The Cards were the cardiac kids in October, winning three of their four games by two or fewer points. To start November, this team produced one of its best outings of the year on both sides of the ball, smashing the Bears by three scores.
Week 9 also saw the Jets halt a five-game slide with a win against the injury riddled Texans. Credit is in order to this Jets pass rush that absolutely blasted C.J. Stroud at every chance it got, rackings up 33 total pressures and eight sacks. That performance catapulted this Jets defense into the top five of pressure rate (41.0%) on the season.
Quinnen Williams has been wreaking havoc as a pass rusher on the interior of this Jets defense over the past few matchups. Since Week 6, Williams owns an impressive 85.7 PFF pass-rush grade — the highest at his position over that span — due largely to racking up five sacks and a 17.4% pass-rush win rate.
Interestingly, Brown has been producing similarly impressive marks as a pass protector over that span. Since Week 6, the formerly undrafted guard has generated a 77.0 PFF pass-blocking grade, having surrendered just two pressures across 121 pass sets.
The Cowboys’ troubles went from bad to worse with the news early in the week that their franchise signal-caller, Dak Prescott, suffered a serious hamstring in the team’s Week 9 loss to Atlanta that may require season-ending surgery. That will thrust Cooper Rush into the spotlight to try and lift this team out of its extensive struggles. In his spell at the helm of this offense this past week, Rush earned a 62.8 PFF passing grade, tossing a big-time throw as well as preventing any turnover-worthy plays.
Rush won’t have many easy looks against an Eagles defense that has been the driving force behind the team’s four game win-streak. Since returning from their bye in Week 6, Philly lays claim to the league’s highest-graded defense (90.2) by a wide-margin, with the next highest-team falling over 10 points lower on the grading scale.
When the Eagles made it a priority to sign Barkley in free agency, it was with the aim to have him generate production like he’s experienced this season. The dynamic back has eclipsed 100 all-purpose yards in all but one game this season and is making plays that have never been seen on the field before.
Issues fitting the run are a common theme with this Cowboys defense, as this team again finds itself ranked at the bottom of the NFL in team run defense (41.6) and EPA per rush allowed. The potential return of Micah Parsons to the lineup is reason for optimism, but it remains to be seen if his presence will make up for widespread issues fitting the run.
With injuries to their top-two receivers, the Texans have been left hamstrung in the passing game in recent weeks. That deficiency came to a head this past week: the Texans fell to the Jets with only two receivers registering a catch at the position. With Nico Collins potentially slated to return to the lineup this week, Stroud may get back perhaps the game’s best receiver — touting a 92.4 PFF receiving grade this season.
The Lions may be the most complete team in the NFL this season, and there’s no better example than that of the performances Jared Goff has amassed. Over their past two games, Goff has managed to secure a quality 74.5 passing grade despite totaling just 230 passing yards, generating under 150 through the air in each game. Generally, the expectation is that if your quarterback was held that low in yardage, it might be a bad day for your offense. That’s not the case for Ben Johnson and Detroit.
The issues in pass pro on the interior of this Texans offensive line were on full display in primetime this past week, with three interior lineman producing sub-23.0 PFF pass-blocking grades. The worst among them was Kendrick Green — who came in in-relief of Kenyon Green, who suffered an injury that may sideline him into the future — earning just a 0.4 pass-blocking grade.
If Green isn’t able to take strides this week, it will be a long day matched up with Alim McNeill. The Lions defensive tackle has really stepped up in the absence of Aidan Hutchinson. Since Week 6, McNeill has generated a 79.4 PFF pass-rushing grade, powered by 18 pressures and a pair of sacks.
A handful of weeks ago, this matchup would not have carried anywhere near the same intrigue as it currently does. That’s due to the recent performances these two teams have produced to varying degrees.
The Rams look like an entirely different squad after returning both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to the lineup. This offense is proving difficult for even some of the league’s more savvy defenses like Minnesota and Seattle.
While the Dolphins have yet to convert a win since the return of Tua Tagovailoa to the lineup, they’re played far more inspired offensively. Tagovailoa has some ways to go before he’s fully dialed back in, but producing a 74.5 PFF passing grade over his two games since return is a step in the right direction.
After going down in Week 1 and missing the next five games, the dynamic receiver returned in Week 8 to produce a vintage Nacua outing. But the following week, he was again missing from the lineup for an extended period, this time ejected after getting into an altercation on the field and throwing a punch. If he’s able to put together a full game, Nacua has the potential to eclipse the 81.8 receiving grade he produced in his return.
The veteran corner Ramsey has been on his game in the first half of 2024 and is coming off one of the top performances of his career. In Week 9, Ramsey recorded the 10th-game of his career, having earned a 90.7 coverage grade while coming away with his first interception of the season and a 44.4 passer rating allowed into his coverage.
